Sgt Schultz

Exhibit A: Look at the Atlanta Falcons cap space the next couple of years. Then compare the number of players going into their "top 51" vs. everybody else's, especially those who appear to be in worse cap shape. Spoiler alert: Some teams below them in cap space are in better shape than they are.

You may be correct in that conclusion. Whatever we gained last year in terms of talent could be given up in that or a similar deal and the "rebuild clock" reset. Getting Watson is a value proposition, like any other decision, complete with opportunity costs and unintended consequences. Just because people don't recognize that does not make it less so. Just because they try to shout down people who point that out also does not make it less so. I'm certainly not opposed to putting him in a Panther uniform. What I don't want to do is achieve that in a manner that has us describing our offensive philosophy with "we have Deshaun Watson" as a result. We did that with Cam, only this time instead of pure stupidity it would be pure inability because we handcuffed ourselves. Regardless of why, not much gets added to the trophy case that way. What is going in our favor is that it is totally in character for the Texans to play this hand into a complete washout for them. That is assuming they decide to play it at all.

I am on the year 1.1 train of thought here (even sillier than 1.5). Yes, on the calendar it is year two. But, most new regimes are hired AFTER the cratering year. Rivera took over at the bottom of the fall, not during the fall. He didn't have to ride the team into the ground before the rebuild. But, what happened to the roster during Fox's last year more or less happened last year. The great purge happened under Rhule, not Rivera or an interim. Then add to the picture there was a lot of things that simply could not happen because of the pandemic response, and it is hard to call 2020 a "full year." The added .1 (or maybe it is around .25) is from our draft last year and a stray signing or two. It was too well orchestrated to not consider it at all in this equation.

I don't see us cutting ties with Paradis for the reason many have said. Having to start 3 new OL is tough enough without replacing the center with somebody completely new, as well. I'm not sure why we would restructure him, either. He is 32, on the last year of his contract, and it is almost inconceivable that we would extend him or resign him beyond this year. Whatever we would save this year, when our expectations are not all that high, only gets turned into dead cap next year or later, when we might be in contention.

That came up in some other random thread a few days ago. The Falcons have a lot of money tied up in relatively few players. 2022 is not great for them, either. If people just look at the cap space numbers, they look okay. Then you look at how many players are making up their cap number, and they have some work to do. Spotrac has them at 26th in terms of "top 51 cap" for 2021. Not great, but not panic mode. But, their "top 51" is composed of 39 players. They are probably only ahead of the Saints and the Eagles in terms of the actual cap condition. The Eagles woes are due to a lot of dead cap, almost all of it tied to Wentz. So, they have to add players to get to 51 despite their cap deficit, they have fewer players to maneuver to get cap relief, and they have a couple that even when their dead cap is surpassed by their cap hit staying on the roster, the dead cap is still enough to choke a horse. It is a heck of a mess in Atlanta.

Based on their history, if ESPN is saying Watson will be a Panther, my fear is the one thing Watson will not be is a Panther.

And not for nothing, but welcome to the board. Given the fact that your posts on this thread have been rational, I assume you are new!

It's more like saying no to a tiny home with a leaky roof, broken windows, broken heat, inoperative plumbing, and precariously perched on a hillside that is sliding. Sleeping under the bridge sounds pretty good. Ben has already hung on a year or so too long. We would be talking about bring in a broken down QB based on what he did years ago, and putting him behind an OL that could barely protect TB for 2.5 seconds a drop back. What could possibly go wrong?

The answer probably depends on which day/game/move/contract we are talking about. There are many to choose from. They probably all apply to a certain day in February 2016.

Cam was wasted by our brain trust (using the term very loosely). In a way, being smaller than Cam might be an advantage for Fields. Cam had no problem taking on linebackers because of his size. That takes a toll, which is why RBs have limited shelf lives. Not having a size and weight advantage over many of them might cause Fields to be a little less likely to think "bring it on" when he is running the ball. Getting down and "living to fight another day" is not a bad trait in a QB.

There is a definite link between what we can offer and what the Dolphins need. Everything I read has two of the Dolphins big needs being RB and WR. Given there are three potential marquee WRs in this draft (Chase, Smith, and Waddle), the Dolphins could make that trade and wind up with an established, versatile RB and a top-notch WR. I've also seen them mentioned with Sewell. If he is their primary interest, we can fuggedaboutit. The good news is so can everybody else. I don't think they would want to move too far down in the first round, because they are probably eyeing one of those three receivers or Sewell. Moving to #8 would allow them to grab one of the WRs mentioned and wind up with CMC which would check a couple of their boxes early in the draft. The problem we have is our offense becomes a lot less QB friendly without CMC and Samuel. We would have to address that as well as the boat anchor called our OL. And that is just on the offensive side, and does not include the TE position.

Absolutely. That really shows up when you look at their cap numbers, and then look at the number of players they have signed to get to that cap number. They appear to be in $42M better shape than the Saints next year, but they also have 16 fewer players in their number. Factoring in number of players vs. cap, they are arguably in the second worst shape of anybody (behind the Saints). Nobody has fewer players signed for 2021 than the Falcons, and the next lowest is Tampa at 44 (Atlanta has 42). The difference is the Bucs are in the black by almost $28M vs. the cap, instead of $23M in the red. So, they have to cut their losses while adding players to the overall number. They are pretty far under water to pull that off.

Their situation reminds me of an old Three Stooges short. Our three heroes are on a golf course, and it is covered in huge digits from their efforts. The greenskeeper comes out screaming at them, and Moe's response was for him to relax, they were getting better......the pieces are getting smaller. It is a heck of a predicament. He costs them almost $42M of cap to keep in 2022, and "only" $26.5M to cut loose. The 2021 and 2022 numbers are major reasons I believe they may try one more run with Ryan and Julio. Julio's numbers in 2022 are less ominous ($19.25M cap hit/$15.5M dead money) but still not trivial. Apparently, they thought all this was Monopoly money. His contract would make Hurney proud.

You could assemble the greatest minds in football, even if you had to dig them up from the grave, and give them the task of coming up with and implementing a plan to screw this situation up in the most extreme way imaginable. My bet is that group would be outdone by the Texans. And it probably would not even be close.

When you look at the Falcons, they have two options: one last run with Ryan and Julio or rebuild. Honestly, either option involves their defense. If they want to make one more run with the current core, it was not that group that has consistently let them down. No lead is safe with their defense. If they want to rebuild, they are pretty much stuck with Ryan and Jones next year. In 2022 they could get out from under both. It won't be cheap, but it will be cheaper than hanging onto them. They could part ways with Ryan but hang onto Julio, depending on how 2021 goes. Trading down for multiple quality picks serves their immediate need for either case. Sure, they are bypassing their shot at a one of the "Big Four," but they may not be interested in all of them and trading up only hampers their need to address other holes. They are in worse shape than we are. I think their odds at "one more run" are slim, their roster is not exactly young, and the only reason their salary cap situation is not on everybody's mind is the Saints and Eagles numbers are much worse. Problem is the Falcons only have 42 players chewing up theirs.

I'm sure there have been inquiries with the Dolphins about what they would want to move the pick. I would be surprised if they gave a halfway firm answer to any of them, unless they want a king's ransom. Given how close they look to being a playoff team, they may not want to move it at all. Even if they are fine with their QB situation, how often are they going to have a shot at a Sewell, Chase, Smith, Waddle, or pretty much their pick to address their relatively few needs? Remember, they have it this year thanks to the skillful maneuvering of the Houston Texans. WR is one of the Dolphins' needs, from what I read. That actually could work in our favor if we are going after their #3 pick. There are three potential marque receivers. The Dolphins probably very much want one of them and don't want to go too far down the board for fear of losing that shot. Again, the Texans don't come along every year offering up what turns out to be a #3 pick. I said this before, but the Foreskins would have lost to the '76 Tampa Bay Buccaneers that week. They were that terrible, and while most of it was on Haskins, they made a few other boneheaded plays to add to the fun. We really didn't do much to win that game, but they dug a hole and then could not get out of their own way enough to salvage a win against a team stuck in neutral. But, while we were in neutral, they were in reverse.

She look's quite good, especially for her age.

The return is not irrelevant, it is the point of the entire matter. Let's go back to the Jets and Wilson deal. The moment I make that deal, how many picks do I have in the first round that year? The answer is zero. I have Wilson, but I did not pick him, I traded for him. If that trade takes place before they select Wilson, how many picks do I have the moment the deal is final? The answer is 1, just a higher pick than I had before. All we did was swap picks, with them being compensated for having the better positioned one. It cost me a pick to trade picks. In 2004, San Diego picked Eli Manning, who said he did not want to play for them. The Giants later picked Rivers. They then traded the two players, and the Chargers also got a 3rd round 2004 pick, plus 1st and 5th round pick in 2005. Did the Giants trade 3 picks and a player to get Manning, or did they trade 4 picks? Since the 1st round 2004 pick had a name, Philip Rivers, they traded 3. Had they made the trade before they picked Rivers, they would have traded 4.

But you aren't getting 1 pick back if that pick already has a name. You are getting a specific player, even though he may have only been in the NFL for 2 minutes. If they call 15 minutes earlier and offer to trade us their #2 pick for our #8 and next years first rounder, what we did literally is swap picks and add in another as compensation for theirs being higher this year. We can select anybody with their number 2 pick: Wilson, Fields, Sewell, or anyone. The choice is ours, even if we opt for Wilson. The pick offers more flexibility than a specific player, even if ultimately they wind up being the same thing. That is, unless your GM is Marty Hurney. He may use that #2 pick to select Drew Seers, LB, Lindenwood College. If he is your GM, you probably do not want flexibility. You probably don't even want the pick in the first place.

No doubt. No one mines pyrite like he does. Absolutely no one.

Funny, I used to hear their same argument about real estate......"it can't go down." Until it does.

People compare the 2021 numbers (rumored) to this year, but that is really not the issue. The real number is what 2021 turns out to be compared to what teams expected 2021 to be. Compared to 2020, it is expected to be a loss of about $13M or shy of 7%, which is not good, but not horrendous. However, based on the year-over-year numbers, teams were probably expecting a number around $210M in 2021. That roughly doubles both of those numbers. Depending on how much of that they spent up front, you have some teams whose plans went up in flames, not just smoke. Some teams do commit to what the project, not what they have in their hand. That works, until it doesn't. Given where we are in the process of of starting over, it smarts but we can adjust. There are some teams in deep kimchi, and some of those are teams who drive up salaries during FA. I would not want to be an agent trying to drum up big money deals for non-marquee players this year. Their best advice might be to look for a shorter-term deal and try again when the economics recover. I would not be surprised to see a lot of one and two year deals this FA season. Samuel is in the tier of players who that may apply to.

I started to comment earlier that I was in favor of giving Mariota a look last year, largely because he probably could be had for cheap and I was not convinced he had been given a reasonable shot to succeed in Tennessee. When I thought about extending that to this year, especially given our one-layer deep QB depth chart, I looked at the cap numbers. I could not come to terms with the numbers, either.

I was trying to avoid that subtle difference! The fact that they were a yard and a dumb offensive play call away from turning their loss to a win, and we were a few of turnovers and a missed field goal away was bad enough.

They don't. Gruden could have Rodgers, Mahomes, and Brady in the QB stable and he would want to unload all three, in order of who started last. I think he uses the philosophy about QBs that he is not happy unless he is not happy. Or, perhaps if he stops complaining about his QB, somebody might get the idea the problem is him. It is another level of "missed opportunities."