Ricky Spanish

I know absolutely nothing about coaching football. I know data, statistics, and measuring trends. Something about Baker's Delivery just looked off to me and I was able to go back and watch enough plays and slow it down on youtube to notice the lift every time he throws downfield. One thing I will say, he doesn't seem to do the lift on shorter passes, aka screens/passes near the LOS. Ball comes out quick and his hands separate near his chest where he drops back. My theory is that he is trying to get everything he has into his throws downfield which is why he does the load up on deeper passes.

Jimmy is a better QB but more fragile. But he's like, waaaaaaaaaay hotter.

Thank you, I was looking for someone to follow this up with this kind of info of frames/second. And I agree, the defenses we face are definitely reading our plays better than we are calling them and that is probably the biggest contributing factor to the tipped passes. Since the defenders know where the ball is going, they will probably have a better understanding of what throwing lanes to occupy before Baker throws. I do believe that Baker's windup is contributing to this though. These are world class athletes and it is not beyond the scope of possibility that they could be reacting to the visual cue of Baker moving his hands up before he throws. I know MLB players have 125-225 milliseconds (source provided) from 60 feet away to decide if a pitch is a ball/strike, and whether or not to swing a bat around their body to try to make contact with a tiny ball, so if they can react in that small a window, then I believe these NFL defenders juiced to the gills can at least start raising their arms the moment they see Baker raising his. Add into the equation that Baker is short, has a low trajectory when he throws, and the defenders KNOW what plays we are calling and where the ball is going, and it's a recipe for tip city. Either way, his throwing motion is completely inefficient and needs to be fixed.

As soon as the ball goes up to his collar, you know he's about to throw the thing. I'm just some jackass on the internet who works in data and I noticed this. Imagine who in the NFL with their trained eyes has also seen this?

This really is egregious. Identifies target at the end of his drop: Right before hand separation 6 frames later: Again, ball drops down from his collar as he separates his hands.

Looks like it. This is from 2020 when he had his best statistical year: Identifies target: 6 frames later he begins separating his hands to start his throwing motion: That particular throw his hands start to come back down in the next frame as he begins his throwing motion, so his hands actually go from sternum, to collar, to back down about 2 inches before he starts to separate his hands.

This thread lead me to create my own. I break it down here:

Everyone has their own theories about why Baker has so many batted balls. Some say it's the O-lines fault, some say it's Baker's height, but I have my own theory: Baker telegraphs the hell out of all of his throws. Looking back at the game highlights from Sunday on Youtube, I wanted to count how many frames it took for Baker to throw the ball from hand separation to release. To my surprise, it takes him just as long on average as Kyler Murray to separate his hands and throw the ball (11/12 frames). But for some reason his delivery still looks like it takes longer. That's when I noticed something else. In Baker's Dropback, he holds the ball right around sternum height covering the #6 on his jersey. However, when Baker Identifies who to throw the ball to, he raises his hands up about 6 inches so that it covers the collar of his jersey. This is where he loads up to throw and the hand separation begins. From here it takes the same amount of frames to release the ball as Murray. However, from the time it takes him to get his hands from drop back mode to "load up" mode, it takes anywhere between 17 and 20 frames. Examples: Drop back - Hands are at number height: Decision to throw right before hand separation - Hands are near the collar: The above throw bumped his frames to throw from 11 up to 16. This seems to be a part of his muscle memory. On this play, The TE cross is the first option and you can tell that is where he was going with the ball even before he finishes his drop back. In the process of dropping back, right before his back foot hits the ground, he starts to load up to get the ball out at the top of his drop back: Drop Back: Decision to throw at the top of his dropback: Jumps frames to throw from 12 up to 18. Week 3 Examples: Baker hits the top of his dropback on this shotgun pass, Ball is at number height: Baker Identifies the target and separates his hands: Time from hand separation to release - 12 frames. Add the load up, jumps up to 18 frames Another one: Identifies who he throws it to: Right before hand separation: 11 frames from separate hands to thrown, up to 17 frames from load up to thrown "But Ricky" you say to yourself, "All QBs have to load up to throw". And to that I say, yes, however they don't raise the ball 6 inches to do so. Example from two completely different teams because it was suggested by youtube: Week 3 Pats v. Ravens Mac Jones identifies his target, ball is at number height: Jones loads up aka the Frame before hand separation: Ball goes up maybe two inches and takes 2 frames to get there. His release averages around 10/11 frames btw. Another Jones: Frame where Jones identifies his target: Right before hand separation: It takes 1 frame and his hands barely move. From the same game: Lamar Jackson - Averages around 11 frames from hand separation to release, also has a funky side arm delivery: Frame where he identifies his receiver: Very next frame right before he begins hand separation. His hands don't move from that plane before he throws. His load up is that plane: Another one: Lamar's hands don't fuging move before he separates his hands: Right before hand separation: Jackson has absolutely ZERO telegraph to his delivery. TL;DR Baker Mayfield telegraphs his throws by raising the ball up roughly 6 inches before he begins his throwing motion. This increases his time to throw from the average 11/12 frames up to 17/18 frames, slowing his delivery down up to 40% on any given play. This would allow defenders ample time to read Baker, jump up, and bat a ball down.

Baker takes an eternity to throw the ball. His windup is ridiculous and telegraphs when he's about to throw, this allows D-Linemen to reach the peak of their jump right as the ball gets to them after Baker begins to throw. Dude has an MLB windup and should have been a pitcher.

28-3 happened. The city as a whole still hasn't recovered.

I don't want it to happen so it probably will.

Dude looked at the oncoming media shitstorm and said: Then took his money and had a sad like:

JR wasn't forced out, he willingly sold the team to "protect the shield". He fell on his own sword. No one made him do it.

Does -200 represent the number of days ago it should have happened?

Nope, everyone who agreed needs to sit in the shame.

Baker is short and he has a very long windup before he throws. The ability to anticipate a throw coming with the benefit of a lower trajectory leads to the tips. Compare his release time to tape of Corral or damn near any starter in the NFL. It's painful.

Dan Arnold has two catches for 34 yards this year. I don't think we lost that trade but I don't think they won it either

No, but it looks like we're going old logo midfield

SI put together a comprehensive list of potential head coaches next year. A whole lot of defensive guys with great resumes on the list. Go ahead and pick your favorite: https://www.si.com/nfl/2022/09/29/complete-list-of-nfl-future-head-coaches-daily-cover?utm_source=reddit.com

Honestly, I'm not even mad at Rhule about this. You're paying him a fortune to play, so he should play. In a vacuum it makes sense to keep him out there, he's being compensated very well to play a ton of football. However, with the current coaching staff, it's kind of been a waste the past two+ years.

I grabbed Foreman last season as Henry's handcuff and held onto him since Chubba sucks. After 5 runs of dancing around and falling over to gain 3 yards, my money is Foreman will come in to spell the ineptitude, plus he has goal line value that chubba doesn't.

This stuff doesn't bother me as much these days since I picked up his handcuff in all my dynasty leagues. I'm set.

If Rhule stays it will either be Tannehill, Danny Jones, or Jimmy G. If Rhule goes, trade up to get the guy you want.

Ah, fair, didn't realize that. I also didn't watch the most recent game so I thought it was about the season as a whole and was not sipping the kool-aid.