mav1234

Is this over the year or just thru the first 6 games? Its interesting that we have so many fewer passes behind the LoS. Tbh, my issue with Teddy was always more his inability to lead drives at end of games than it was anything with his deep ball. He was pretty good up to 15ish yards which is enough if you can make clutch throws when it matters.

That's true, and I think we are asking Darnold to throw more times per game. It does seem that Darnold is much more willing on 3rd down to go to or past the sticks while Teddy seemed to dump it off more. Might be interesting to look at those situational throws too.

Interior DL don't often have big stat lines. Brown takes up a lot of space, and blocks, which enables our edge rushers to feast.

Robby Anderson? Because when he wasn't on the Jets Darnolds dropped passes were at its lowest Edit: DJ had a much higher percent of dropped passes last year than Robby, but he still did have 6.

I think it's a combination but the fact he's throwing deep way more than Teddy did last year suggests to me he's trying to get bigger chunk plays (which actually may also have to do with what is available on a given play). He certainly misses receivers deep both in terms of what he sees and on his throws, but I think too teams are figuring Brady's offense out a bit and with a RB that is struggling to catch... Well, yeah.

Not this bad. He already has had receivers drop more passes this year than last, almost as many as in 2018. 2019 though was also bad, but not this bad, 6%. He was pretty much in the 4-5% range other years which isn't unusual for a team with mediocre to bad receivers. But that isn't supposed to be this group...

Time to throw isn't necessarily an indictment. But it does indicate he may not be seeing the field / processing what he sees well. I would be curious to see how that time has changed across games this season.

Right, but despite having terrible OLs for at least the last few years, and a slow processing speed, he's taking fewer sacks than he should based on the OL. Not saying the OL is the only thing at fault with our O. Darnold is a problem too. It is interesting how in 2 minute drills his processing speed seems to improve. You can visibly see him scanning the field faster. It isn't a matter of him just making one read throws either.

It appears that does not account for drops based on the description, unless they clarify that elsewhere. If true, we should probably consider that Darnold has had 16+ drops for an otherworldly 7.5% of his passes dropped this year... That is crazy given the quality of receivers we have. That said Darnold is far too inconsistent and needs to find ways to make the typical plays more often.

The defense isn't adjusting in the 2nd half and it's costing us games - same as the O. The defense is FAR ahead of the O, but it is frustrating how close we are to being elite there while falling to "just good" due to collapses at key moments. Hopefully returning plyers change that. Also on the D... It isn't just them being gassed or lacking morale either because the breakdowns on D often happy early in the 3rd as well. True O turnovers happen then too, but look at Sunday where we had a rare incredible ST play and then just blew the lead right after... And even after long drives, when they happen, our D has trouble getting a stop... Our coaching at half time seems very problematic. Brady's comments a couple weeks ago also suggested we don't really try to change anything on offense at half time, which seems insane. Maybe he was just using coach speak but that is how they play...

Is that possibly because he's running for his life so quickly on so many plays? It feels like most of of our plays on O we either get the ball out fast or he's running around with a bunch of DL chasing him... Not sure if stats back that up. What you just said tho suggests Darnold is significantly more evasive than I gave him credit for, or his sack % should be closer to the pressure %, right?

Not only that, LB is not a unit that could sustain that loss. CB and WR make the most sense. We're stacked at both.

Or OL related... I like Terrace a lot but drafting him while extending Robby was confusing. I hope they find a way to get him out of his funk.

What I'm reading is our pass block win rate is among the worst but our sack numbers are slightly better when adjusted (is this for number of passing attempts? Must be)... That would seem to suggest Darnold is getting the ball out generally fast and avoiding that pressure, right? Still abysmal... Those win rates are garbage and limiting our offense. Nice post btw @kungfoodude

Drops and some other advanced stats are available free on PFR. https://www.pro-football-reference.com/teams/htx/2021_advanced.htm I think they've had 7 drops.

Teddy seemed to decline as the year went on throwing it deep, tho. And Darnold is clearly more willing to go deep, which is one of his good sides (but mitigated by the fact he can't connect lol). Also, relevant to Robby, his yards per reception declined by almost 4 going from Darnold to Teddy. It's bounced up a little more with Darnold again but not to his 15 he had pre Panthers. Seems usage related.

Have our pass block win rates improved? I thought we were in the bottom three there.

I feel that Teddy last year stopped going deep nearly as much as the season went on. Is it easy for you to see if that's true?

I've seen people say this a couple times so I wanted to point out why this is a bad take from his season-by-season numbers. Remember, Darnold missed a total of 6 games in 2018 and 2019; so, by the hypothesis that the Robby was more productive without him would suggest we could look at those 6 games to get an idea on if this is true, or perhaps something else pushed Robby's production down in 2018/2019. Take a wild guess what the data shows? Robby without Darnold in 2018: only 2 games played, 6 catches for 70 yards, 11.67 yards/reception, 0 TDs Robby with Darnold in 2018: 12 games, 44 receptions for 682 yards, 15.5 yards/reception, 6 TDs Robby without Darnold in 2019: 3 games, 8 receptions, 102 yads, 13.50 yards/reception, 0 TDs Robby with Darnold in 2019: 13 games, 44 receptions for 671 yards, 15.2 yards/reception, 5 TDs Sure with such a small sample it is hard to say for sure if Darnold really was driving Robby down, but the Jets team from 2017 to 2018 was pretty different, and not just in terms of starting QBs. Plus, his yards/reception didn't actually go down from 2017 to 2018 or 2019 (all 3 were 15ish) - that didn't happen until 2020 with Bridgewater when it dropped to 11.5 (and fwiw it is a bit higher this year with Darnold).

The one difference is we saw the offense go hard and tie up the game in the 4th quarter and force overtime last game. That is new, something impossible last year regardless of opponent... and in a couple other games our D just needed one more stop to give our O a shot at finishing a comeback or leading a win... I do believe the D is the strength of this team and with a few players getting right, we might get that one last stop. But I know I'm being optimistic and that's asking a lot for what we have on offense. Maybe it's just my own desire to finally win more close games, but we will see.

I don't quite have your confidence but the 4th quarter was very very promising.

Its better than it has been but it's been having drop issues since camp... And not just for Darnold

Sam's timing is off on deep balls but I think when he plays instead of thinks he can make some incredible throws.

I agree that is how Darnold is looking. But I don't think this stat tells much of that story, tbh... There's so much just not working right now.

I am NOT saying Darnold is in Rodgers' league. But according to PFR, Darnold's receivers had dropped *eight times* the passes as Rodgers' (16 vs 2). Rodgers has a *higher* bad throw percent (21.1% vs 18.8%) and a lower on target throw percent (not surprising given the drops and bad throw %, 73.1% vs 76.1%). So... Is Darnold wasting his receivers or is the offense just fuged?