stan786

Texans are the only team it'll make sense for us to trade to imo. It feels like the tepper likes Young Reich likes Stroud report was aimed at them as well. I dont think it happens though, feels like us just being optimistic we can force them to pick between the two.

Ascending 24 year old DE who is in the top 10 in total sacks over the last 3 years coming off his best season is going to get "Top Paid DE" money. He wont be the top paid DE for long though, next guy up will get his and so on. Cap goes up every year which increases how much players are gonna make.

I'd go ahead and assume his total contract value is highest paid Edge in the NFL, but the structure will be interesting. This rookie QB contract is going to be very nice while some of our better players come up for contract for sure.

If we end up with a top 5 pick Reich isnt the guy. After FA this roster should be able to compete for the Division unless the Falcons or the Bucs do something wild.

This is pretty incredible, its hard to be that bad at this.

Wonder what we could get for Chinn in a trade. Feels like he’s gonna have to learn to be a 2 high safety or maybe like a big slot.

I’m not worried about Young’s weight personally. I remember when the same water weight Kyler plays at 180 actually arguments happened with Murray and I’d say most of his injuries have happened non contact due to his running. Kyler Russ and Brees bulked up when they got to the NFL like most players do, Bryce has proven to me he has the frame to be over 200 lbs pretty consistently, he didn’t hold his combine weight awkwardly or anything it’ll just be a process like it was with all those guys from rookie to vet. I also am not convinced there is a true correlation between playing weight and durability there are even studies that argue being lighter improves durability. I just think that’s because coaches don’t put those players in harms way as much. If you ran him like Cam sure he probably gets hurt more but you don’t because of who he is. He does a great job of avoid big hits with his elite pocket movement and processing as well and doesn’t run unless it’s a must. I do worry about things like arm strength, and if he’s going to be able to throw into NFL windows like he did in college. His ball doesn’t have a ton of zip imo and he has to put his entire body into the throw to get it 50+ yards, I see a number of times he has a guy deep and ends up having the guy have to come back to it a bit. I think most QBs do have arm strength improve in the pros but if anything caps his ceiling I’d argue it’s that. I think Stroud developing pocket movement and playing out of structure could elevate his profile over Young just due to ball placement and arm strength. He is truly special with ball placement it’s unreal sometimes, but I think some of the stuff I’ve seen when he gets pressured does scare me and honestly makes me feel he’s got more upside and more downside than Young. I think he fits like a glove with our ascending oline and fit in what Reich wants in an offense. End of the day I’m happy with either and I just think there is more to discuss than playing weight with Young though I understand while I may be comfortable with it some may not and I don’t judge that. I will say I don’t get the downplaying of either prospect I think both are really exciting and I don’t get why people think there can’t be Elite QBs in this class. If you hate Young and Stroud I wonder what more tape of Maye is going to do to you. Feels more like nit picking than anything at this point.

You sound like my wife smh.

Arob will be relatively cheap and Rams will pay some a large chunk of his contract, feel like he'd be a nice level headed outlet for Stroud in year one. Also has ties to our new OC last year in LA.

Yeah and I do think there’s something to be said for when you have two options picking the non outlier probably being smarter.

Yeah I think I see it more in his deep ball like I’ve said earlier than I do in his middle is the field passing. Just had to put all his mass into deep throws in my eyes. He definitely gets deeper in the pocket than most guys have to. I’m honestly kind of excited to see him in the 49ers based offense in Houston if he goes there. I think he’ll be a guy I really enjoy watching because of his improvisation abilities, but I’m also fine to avoid the outlier risk and take Stroud and build around that ball placement and accuracy. It’s beautiful

Fair enough and that makes sense. I think it’s a pretty complex thing and I don’t blame people for not being comfortable with it, I think it’s a good example of the same arguments going through NFL front offices right now.

I’d swap for 33 but I am high on Stroud and Young. I’d be fine keeping one and having conviction though.

I’m pretty excited to watch them both in the NFL, I think they both have pretty great traits to be successful.

When I went the year Peppers got drafted it was a line outside the building but I’m sure it’s a lot different now.

https://www.footballoutsiders.com/stat-analysis/2018/weight-and-injuries This doesn’t prove anything as I’ve said previously but it’s interesting data. Why would lighter players get hurt less? For QBs some thoughts could be most lighter QBs don’t get featured as rushing threats so it reduces the quantity of hits taken. One of those you feel more comfortable putting larger players into harms way. Could it do with general forces when they hit the turf, big guys falling so have a lot of force behind it. No idea all of this is just theories there’s just not enough data on guys Young’s size to decide if it’s a big negative or not, I could look at this data and say it’s a feature not a bug but that would be too far. In terms of the list of players you posted above I’ll first note technically Bryce is gonna get listed over 200 after that combine weigh in which moves him up a bucket, most players around there probably have their weight inflated though tbh. It becomes more of a knock on his profile than anything definitive though and in general he’s been a very healthy guy, he missed one game due to that shoulder and came out the next week and took a beating in probably the best game of the Season tape wise for him vs Tennessee and looked no worse for wear. I just don’t understand why people who aren’t worried about his size as much get so downplayed in this thread. There’s as much data out there for both camps. I get he’s somewhat of an outlier but the rest of his skills make up for that by miles imo.

I'd be interested in actual data that shows size is a serious injury issue as well. Feels like a bunch of feelings more than anything concrete. The only weight/injury data I've been able to find argues lighter players get hurt less, but the QB weight scale cuts off at 210 so it would be disingenuous to throw out there like it proves anything with Young. I can name a ton of small QBs who didnt have injuries derail their career and like one (Manziel) where it could be attributed to it, but thats just remembering names i'm sure i have to be missing some.

I mean Brees, Flutie, etc played for a long time. I’d argue Kyler and Manziel got in more trouble with their desire to run than anything in the pocket. Benefit is that’s not Bryce’s game and he avoids most big hits. End of the day there’s not a ton of data either way on small QBs because most are outliers in the big picture of the NFL, kind of like Josh Allen unicorns are outliers. I’m personally not as concerned about Bryce’s size but I get it. I just don’t think his game translates to someone who will be taking a bunch of big hits and there are examples of that profile lasting a good while in the NFL, as much of an outlier as small QBs are.

I agree with this. He’s so damn smart and quick.

My big issue with Young aside from size is I really worry about his deep ball personally. A lot of times I feel like he has to get his entire body into it to get where it needs to go. I love him short to mid range though and QBs generally gain some strength when they hit the NFL. He has a ball that reminds me of the Brady/Mannings where it doesnt really impress you coming out of his hands but it gets where it needs to go.

I think CJs ball placement and Deep Ball are a lot better than Bryce, I also think Reich wants a guy that succeeds in the system first and isnt necessarily dying for a guy whos special ability comes when the play falls apart (which I think is incredible to watch with Bryce and is extremely valuable). I think CJ has an underrated arm and will be able to get the ball accurately all over the field no questions asked and I think Reich does really value size, you can here it from his comments in the presser even. Basically with our oline being ascending, how well CJ succeeds when he's on schedule, and his ball placement and accuracy at all levels of the field, his size, and past Reich QBs it just seems to me he's exactly what Reich looks for.

Yes, but I think i'm more concerned if he never put what he did in the Georgia game on tape. I will say I've been watching some of the all-22 from this season in game order from him and he did noticeably improve in the areas I was concerned in as the year went on and it felt like it just all showed out in that Georgia game which is more promising. So I think even without the Georgia game I could believe it a bit, but it would definitely push Bryce up more not having a proof of concept game like that. I think end of day regardless of Georgia Stroud fits our situation and Reich the best so I would still probably take him.

I'd suspect we go the opposite way and immediately start playing to win. Fitterer has said he doesnt suspect to draft low after this year. The division is very winnable you can easily add some short term pieces to help get the offense off the ground and compete for the playoffs year 1 with Stroud or Young, and make bigger moves next off season when all the cap opens up. Doesnt look like a rebuild but more of a reset the cap and build around a rookie QB.

This is how I feel completely.

I'll be interested on how we play TE/WR. I think we probably become a player for one of these WR trades. Allen Robinson from the Rams for example knows Brown well and can be had relatively cheap with the Rams eating a large chunk of his deal. Would be a good outside vet presence. Hopkins and Sutton and i'm sure a few more will have their tires kicked. I think the TE FA class probably gets its value depressed by the rookie draft which could be a boon for us, but also would we prefer to just draft that guy at 39? Would be nice to get Shultz on a more friendly deal if people decide to wait for the rookie draft before committing. He may just wait though My one worry is overspending on this free agent WR class. I think Paris Campbell probably is a pretty clear fit knowing Reich's offense and how much he has expressed his love for Frank and he feels like he'll be cheap. I would love to make a run for Jakobi Meyers but he probably gets overpaid due to the quality of this class. Overall I think we could easily fit in a nice Vet receiver, a TE, some depth before the draft to make this an appealing year one spot for CJ or Bryce. Glad we know we need to do this before FA Starts.