stan786

I've been arguing this in this chat for a while so it'll come as no surprise here. I'd love to see something other than people giving me a gut feel on where the magical number on the scale is that injuries happen less. Kyler isnt that much smaller than CJ but they use him as an example, Tua weighs more than CJ but they use him as an example. There is plenty of QBs big and small that have been hurt at differing rates in the NFL. There have been small QBs that have played for 15+ years, there have been big QBs who've only made it like 6-7. There is so many factors in play when it comes to QB weight and there really isnt any data that correlates with skinner players being hurt at some insane rate. I know it feels good to just logically think about it, but feels like there is a large portion of this board automatically downgrading a player based on something they feel should be true but hasnt played out that way.

I feel like while yes him running can increase the number of hits taken, you cant remove the amount he's avoiding by moving from the equation. Even for running QBs the pocket is where the far majority of QB injuries occur, being able to navigate the pocket and avoid some of that mess also needs to be factored a bit. I'd argue Brees and Young in pocket move very similarly watching them, while Bryce does end up extending stuff I havent seen on tape where it leads to a signficant increase in bigger hits or anything. Though I will curb this with a point in your favor where Bryce's one shoulder injury came from trying to get the ball out falling into the sidelines, reminded me a little of Cam and that tackle against San Diego where he just fell out it at a weird angle.

For me it would be Smith or Flowers, I think Smith is an insane value there and probably would take him. I would go Flowers otherwise because I think continuing to give the young QB weapons will pay off more in the long term. I understand our needs at edge and corner, but i'd like to give our QB a young weapon to grow with a bit if i'm being honest. I'd probably go offense with the first three picks if I had my way but I'm sure we'll be adding defense somewhere in there.

Only one I can find is this one. https://www.footballoutsiders.com/stat-analysis/2018/weight-and-injuries I've been trying to find something else that does something similar for a while, i'm surprised there isnt more out there.

Yeah Peyton played on that neck a lot longer than he should have, his last 7ish years almost felt like he was Frankenstein lol. Always impressed what he was able to accomplish on it.

Peyton was similar with getting the ball out and ended up with significant injuries, it’s just a crapshoot at times. Brees also had a really good pocket presence that helped keep him alive not taking the big hits.

Kylers injuries have generally been non contact hamstring and acl injuries. He did miss 3 games due to an ankle sprain once but other than that he generally injured himself running around not getting hit. Also that picture was when Kyler had been in the NFL 3 seasons and Bryce was a sophomore in college, Kyler has put on some serious weight since he was at the combine if you compare pictures. Other question why does CJ at 213 become significantly safer than Kyler at 207? Where is the Magical number on the scale where injury is not a concern?

Watt gets 28 a year and Crosby gets 23.5 my comment was he's for sure going to come in asking for Watt money and the most likely view we'll have is wanting to structure it like the Crosby contract. I would guess it would end up in some range between those two. With the constantly rising cap in the NFL its rare a player can be the top paid player at his position for 3+ years like Watt is about to be, Burns is a young and ascending pass rusher in the NFL that will 100% be the highest paid edge rusher if he hit FA and teams were allowed to bid freely. Thinking Burns isnt going to walk in and start his negotiation at a deal that would make him the highest paid edge in the league isnt grounded in reality, what number we meet at is going to be the real story. I would think we may be able to come to an agreement at 25ish, which beats the guys that signed last year but I'll be interested. We clearly value him as a cornerstone piece and the Franchise being so adamant they are going rookie QB shows they want any plan they have to allow them to keep some of the great young defenders we have, which a rookie QB deal helps accomplish.

If we get out under 4 years 100 million it’s a giant win. I imagine he’ll be pushing for Watt money and we’ll try and get him in closer to the Crosby/Chubb deals. I’d pay him regardless, he’s a legit top tier pass rusher and he’s a lot more valuable in NFL circles than this board seems to value him at.

I agree with this. Black on silver is my favorite look we have personally.

I've seen Tepper's style, I am nervous.

Yeah my worries with Bryce come more from does those tight window throws he makes on the run and some of the other magic stuff he does happen in the NFL. Is his arm strong enough to thread the needle in NFL windows like he does in college. Sometimes the ball leaves his hand and it reminds me of Peyton Manning where the throw looks lame but ends up exactly where its supposed to, and I worry the NFL may end up blowing those up. My gut tells me he'll find a way to do it in the NFL but I think how his magic stuff translates to the NFL is the more interesting argument about Bryce than anything that keeps getting hammered on, and I understand any skepticism.

Sure because there isnt great data because he's an outlier, the QB number does illustrate the same pattern though. Also some of the heavier TEs and RBs dont get hurt as much, which paints a picture that more is going on with the data than what it just shows. All i'm saying is even with that data there was no noticeable trend that states Bryce is going to get hurt more than anyone else, there isnt data that says smaller QBs get hurt more than Bigger ones (That I can find). People are taking gut feels and acting like its guaranteed. I even said when posting it I wouldnt take it for any fact its more i've been looking at both history and data for a month and a half because its something I was legitimately curious about.

Strouds arm is beautiful, I actually like just watching his film just to watch how great the ball looks coming out of his hand, I think people dont expect his arm strength because how easy it looks.

Yup that makes sense to me and I think that's an argument I 100% respect as well. Its one of the arguments that goes through my mind, the risk profile of taking an outlier, and one that historically maybe Reich doesnt work with is scary I wont lie. Also I have argued on here I think Stroud has shown the traits he did in the Georgia game before that game if you really watch and I really like what I think he could be, I just think it also requires some projection which Young also requires. I personally have no qualms with playing it safe because I think Stroud is legitimately a great prospect. My view of Young is in line with yours as well with the Allen Mahomes outlier risk/speical vs bust stuff, and its also what puts me back on Young over Stroud at times is the ease of all the hard things for Young and the It factor, I think its really hard to find QBs that can do what he does and they tend to be the special ones. But as I said in an earlier comment Young being that outlier does have crash and burn potential, I'm just arguing it more from the stance the NFL isnt really built for QBs his size and how he translates is a risk, but I guess I think I feel thats being reduced to the narrative he's automatically getting hurt in most comments on this board so thats what the stick up my butt this morning has been about hahaha.

I think this is where the difference if for me I completely agree Young is an outlier due to his size, but not because that makes him get injured at a higher rate because history doesnt show that. But History does show his size is an outlier and I think if you look at it historically its probably for a number of reasons. Its the same reason Richardson's accuracy makes him an outlier. Players with these profiles do not get drafted this high unless they are special, because there is so little history of success with them. The only successful comp to Richardson is Josh Allen, no other players with that profile got drafted high and the ones that didnt never succeeded. NFL teams generally only draft outliers if their skillsets make them special and the ones that arent dont really ever get the chance. There is almost a survival of the fittest aspect to this, most QBs that short (Or that inaccurate but big and athletic) either get processed out to other positions or only get offers to smaller colleges because they dont fit the classic example of successful QBs and coaches generally coach to what is known. Then there isnt the development needed etc. NFL has moved more recently to one where small QBs have proven they can succeed (In very small samples). I completely understand being nervous about drafting an outlier size QB at 1 and understand the logic of if your grade is similar to two guys take the non outlier. I am more arguing that these guys arent outliers because they get hurt more, its because they dont get the opportunities historically and its proven out for a number of different types of QBs lately. I remember when there was an argument you cant win with rushing QBs, and thats shifted pretty heavily as well. End of days I think their are legit arguments to wanting to argue Stroud is a better QB and I'm even comfortable making them, this board has devolved to pushing this injury narrative and it just doesnt make sense.

https://www.footballoutsiders.com/stat-analysis/2018/weight-and-injuries I've been trying to find other studies but this is the most complete one I can find. Now I would say if you really think about why this would be the case is it because their size helps them? I doubt it, is it because they get put in harms way less? maybe. I would personally argue there is no good data pointing a clear direction either way, I am more arguing people making a gigantic assumption he's automatically getting hurt more are just doing it because they feel that way when nothings really shown it.

I agree with your sentiment up top, but we disagree pretty heavily on the injuries I can say as a Panthers fan I was nervous everytime cam got hit after his shoulder injury. As a Ravens fan i'm sure you hold your breathe when Lamar takes a hit. As a Bills fan you question if Allen hadnt got hurt last year do you win it all. 49ers had QBs big, small, in the pocket, out of the pocket get hurt to tank their year. Staffords arm is dead with no clear reason why. Tua gets his concussions because he lets his head ragdoll, Culter says he had 15 concussions in his career. RG3 tears his knee up on an unfortunate run, Wentz whos a big guy also tore his knee up on an unfortunate run. All size QBs get hurt, there is zero correlation or evidence that smaller QBs or players get hurt at some increased level than big QBs. Its a total gut feel thing. Calling Bryce a 179 lb Maverick QB helps illustrate that bias there. I get it you like Stroud more and I dont blame you but I think its just disingenuous to push a narrative his size is immediately going to get him hurt more when no one knows because there is nothing to say that should necessarily be the case other than "Logically I feel that should be the case".

Yeah my whole stance in here in this thread there is nothing other than gut feels that would tell me Stroud is more likely to stay healthy than Young, both have been dinged up but not seriously injured, both have slight frames, I havent seen any data that says a 215 lb QB is less likely to get hurt than a 195 lb QB. I would argue that Stroud can make all the throws better than Bryce but Bryce has the ability to put the team on his back to go win games more often on film than Stroud. I think if you are drafting a guy 1 overall your goal should be the guy that can be your guy for 10+ years and I think they both can be that. But the second contract and what can they do when the talent around them drops a bit is definitely have a factor in that. If i'm the team I have concerns that Stroud cant take that next step I sure as heck would go Young, but I'm not sure I have those concerns. If a team is just crossing their fingers the guy they take can make it to his second contract we are in a world of trouble.

The downside of this is when you eventually commit the massive contract to him and he cant win when the supporting staff around him drops. Ideally if that were to happen we'd find someone to sell us our Stafford like the Rams situation lol. My opinion is if Bryce is what I think he probably is he's going to be able to elevate the team in any build which is something that I think is really hard to find in a QB and separates the good for the greats. Which is where my internal argument comes from Stroud is safe with potential to be Special and I think Bryce is Special with the potential to completely crash and burn. I wouldnt blame us for making either decision.

PFF always finds interesting ways to contradict itself, its pretty hilarious.

Would order a nice glass of wine and the best mid to small sized steak on the menu and leave both slightly unfinished to show my class and illustrate my willpower to not let myself be overpowered by the finer things.

As I argue Bryce, I want to say I agree completely with this take. Even at his worst I feel like Stroud is someone you can build around in a Rookie contract and simplify things enough to be the Goff that helped get the Rams to the Super Bowl. Issues becomes more the second contract where if we get to that point them i'm happy to deal with it then. I think Stroud is the floor play for us for sure, I just think Bryce could easily be the home run. Not that Stroud cant, just think he's got a few more hurdles on that front with where his game is at currently. These are the types of discussions on them I prefer because I do think Bryce has negatives that arent his size like arm strength.

I agree with you on his arm actually, I think its fine but its not a world beater. My statement would be Physics would tell us most QBs getting hit by a 300 lb monster would struggle staying healthy. Why is 200, 205, 210 lbs the line is my question I havent been able to get answered. The QBs on the smaller side in the NFL arent getting hurt at some insane level compared to the bigger guys, there doesnt honestly seem to be much correlation to it at all.

Yup we are on the same page, I honestly really like both these guys as prospects and think they'll both pretty damn good pros. I just think people are making assumptions and treating them as fact when its very much not the case.