kungfoodude

That might be a bit early on the timeline. It really didn't start taking off in China until late December. That is also a big issue with this virus, the symptoms are basically the same as just about any cold, flu or upper respiratory infection. It doesn't do anything special to make it stand out from a symptom perspective.

I am truly disappointed coming from the internet age and growing up with the internet that people are not more media savvy. It is really unbelievable that even the younger generation cannot have a skeptical view of major media outlets and cannot pick up on the "point of view" that is being delivered. I thought people would get smart to a lot of that stuff, especially coming from the "trolling" generation. But it really hasn't happened.

The best thing any individual person could do is turn off all the news outlets, stay away from Twitter, Facebook, Instagram, etc. Don't use that poo for your information. It is toxic. They are sensationalizing everything and they cannot help it, it's what they have evolved to do and it's our fault as the general public for pushing them in that direction for the past 40+ years. Get your information about this outbreak from the science community, from public health organizations(here or abroad) and other independent science driven entities. They will cut through the BS and just give you data and relatively objective analysis. The panic crush is pushing this whole epidemic.

We likely aren't going to see a vaccine for a long time, if ever.

Well we don't have accurate numbers because we haven't been testing. I had a buddy of mine over and he and his GF got really sick with upper respiratory infections a couple of weeks ago. They tested negative for the flu but they refused to test them for corona. No joke. I am not saying they had it but why not test and start following their trail? We are just dumb. But, on the other hand, people here have been freaking out over almost no cases so I can only imagine the level of panic if they knew the true extent. It is probably better we don't know, sadly.

As I have maintained throughout, the damage to people's livelihoods is a far, far greater risk than anything this virus is doing. People just can't be reasonable, however. Too many have given in to the panic.

That isn't planning, that's reacting. We know these pandemics can happen. N95 respirators, ventilation machines and hospital beds don't have expiration dates.

The CDC maintains a stockpile of critical medicines, vaccines, and medical supplies. Do you honestly and truly believe that they have enough N95 respirators for the over 6,000 hospitals in the US? How about enough ventilators? How about hospital beds? Do you think they stockpile enough for something that could be at a scale like this? Do you think that they would have stockpiled enough whether this virus was here or not? I don't.

Yeah, he made a big mess but we would still be in a mess if he wasn't there. If you don't believe me, go check out the 538 article on ventilators, go ask your local hospital workers if they stockpile supplies for pandemics or do they buy "just in time." Or look at the historic lack of spending on vaccines and vaccine research. It goes a lot deeper than Trump. It is just not something we have prioritized. If I had to guess, even with DemoTrump in office, it won't change after this.

Let's not get off into the weeds on the political spectrum. I am not going to agree with you on this, the facts don't support it and there is plenty of blame to go around. That's something that is more helpful to scream and shout about AFTER we are out of the woods on this virus and it's impacts. Just be sure to remember this when you go to the polls and pay attention to your candidates healthcare views. As I stated earlier, people are going to forget this way too easily and not hold our leaders accountable for being prepared for the next pandemic(which there will be). If you are passionate enough about the subject, then blow up your local congressperson's phone and email about more funding for the CDC and having a comprehensive plan to combat this the next time. That means serious and cohesive planning, that means stockpiling supplies(respirators, hospital beds, ventilation machines, etc), and it means doing the necessary work BEFORE to combat them(working on a general coronavirus vaccine, researching other known coronaviruses that could make the jump to humans, etc, etc).

He deserves to be skewered for his lack of being able to grasp what is going on but that really shouldn't surprise anyone at this point. He literally lives in his own world inside his head. "But the average masks you can buy from a local drugstore aren’t enough to filter out viruses."

He stated two people. Two. If we see a dramatic spike in 20-30 age range being ICU admitted or dying, then I would agree with you. But that is not what the data is indicating. I am not arguing that it CAN'T happen, I am arguing that the risk factors are much, much, much lower for the younger age ranges and especially if you are healthy. Literally every single piece of data so far indicates that is true. And no one should interpret that as meaning there is no risk at all, it just means there is LESS risk.

Yeah, I am sorry and I hate the guy too but this lack of preparation goes across multiple administrations. We have never, EVER been adequately prepared for something like this. That is one truly bi-partisan issue is completely and totally ignoring any sort of preparation for a pandemic. We've seen bad flu seasons(which this will likely mirror) that have overwhelmed our hospitals. H1N1 severely stressed our healthcare system. But people just didn't freak out the same way they are about this. The lack of forethought has always existed.

They can't stop it because the Chinese population really does rely on some of those sources of food. The same is true in Africa or South America. Regulating it would go a long way. We've all seen the pictures of those markets. Can you imagine if that happened in the US? People processing live animals and raw meat without any obvious sanitary measures? They'd be shut down in a heartbeat.

We didn't have months. We've had years. Did anyone forget H1N1(which infected over 20 million people and caused 3900 deaths)? Did we not already see a version of this disease(OG SARS) and another in MERS? We could have been prepared for this, but we weren't. Hospitals don't prepare for worst case pandemic or illnesses. Nor does our government. It is a fundamental weakness.

http://weekly.chinacdc.cn/en/article/id/e53946e2-c6c4-41e9-9a9b-fea8db1a8f51 This is the initial study of roughly 72k patients. 81% of the patients were over 60. 93.7% were over 49. One note of caution, the US population does have a lot more health risk factors than the Chinese population likely does. So our numbers could very well be higher.

TABLE. Hospitalization, intensive care unit (ICU) admission, and case–fatality percentages for reported COVID–19 cases, by age group —United States, February 12–March 16, 2020 Age group (yrs) (no. of cases) %* Hospitalization ICU admission Case-fatality 0–19 (123) 1.6–2.5 0 0 20–44 (705) 14.3–20.8 2.0–4.2 0.1–0.2 45–54 (429) 21.2–28.3 5.4–10.4 0.5–0.8 55–64 (429) 20.5–30.1 4.7–11.2 1.4–2.6 65–74 (409) 28.6–43.5 8.1–18.8 2.7–4.9 75–84 (210) 30.5–58.7 10.5–31.0 4.3–10.5 ≥85 (144) 31.3–70.3 6.3–29.0 10.4–27.3 Total (2,449) 20.7–31.4 4.9–11.5 1.8–3.4 Do you notice that the 0-19 and 20-44 data sets incorporate a larger range of ages? I am gonna take a wild GUESS (and let me be VERY clear that it is a guess) that a higher percentage of those cases are in the 35-44 range(and much more reasonable set). But, regardless, you can also see that group has the second lowest hospitalization rate, ICU admission rate and case fatality rate. Also, let's be clear that this is a relatively small sample size so neither your nor my takes on this data may end up being completely accurate in the long term. The report also clearly states: So we don't know if underlying health issues were involved or not. The bulk of the data so far seems to indicate preliminary that is the case. Furthermore, that is also what a few of the academics seem to be saying and cautioning.

Strange how it looks VERY familiar to the numbers from the Chinese report.

Did you actually read the CDC link? Be honest.

I don't think half the country will end up with it, although we will never know because a lot of people are not going to show symptoms and we are only going to test a minuscule portion of the population. The Spanish flu was estimated to have infected as much as 25% of the US population at the time, although due to modern travel the ease of transmission is exponentially higher. But, the health care is also leaps and bounds better than over 100 years ago. I don't believe it will end up infecting 163 million people in this country(50/50). Could it? Possibly. I also don't think that is realistic given how spread out the population really is. The truth is, there is not much you personally can do about it other than barricade yourself at your house if you are that concerned. That's it. I am going to continue going about my daily life as I would normally. I may get it, I may not. I'd bet heavily on the latter. The panic and stress from worrying about it isn't going to do any good. It just is what it is. You don't have an impact on the lack of preparedness from the federal government, you don't have an impact on the decisions that your state or local municipality will make in regards to combating it, and you don't have an impact on the way people will react. It just is what it is. For me, it's easier to just accept that and move on. I follow the scientific journals and the health agency updates to understand it a little better and to perhaps change any behaviors that might put me more at risk. That's what keeps my mind at ease about it. Just do what you can and the rest is just going to happen.

Yeah, my guess is that you missed a specific sentence.

I mean, 50/50? Lol....okay. I don't have control over your overreaction, so good luck with that. And who cares if you do get it? Are you over 60? Are you obese? Heart issues? Lung issues? Heavy smoker? If the answer is no to most if those, you are gonna be fine. It is just going to suck for a while.

https://www.healthline.com/health/cold-flu/mask Read it all but make note of the portion under "Surgical masks."

Well, according to the experts, those loose fitting surgical masks are pretty much a joke. The biggest benefit they could possibly have is being used by a sick person to mildly contain all their hacking and coughing.

Yeah, I mean, you have to look at it pragmatically. The odds of you dying are pretty low, even the odds of you contracting it are probably fairly low. In a month or two this will mostly be a distant memory. We Americans will go back to our lives, never invest in more research or preparedness and then we will be back here again in 5-20 years with another pandemic, running around like a chicken with our heads cut off the same way we are now. If there is one thing you can count on, it's that people never really learn from anything! Have a nice day!