kungfoodude

We traded them all away for Jimmy G. Forever.

I don't even know that his miss rate was that much higher than our other GM's. I think it was that when he missed, it was literally guys who didn't even belong in the NFL. I can imagine there was a lot of laughing in various draft war rooms at some of those guys getting picked in the 2nd.

Yeah but that is over the span of 27 years. Look at our 2nd rounders historically. The hit rates have been pretty damn good. In fact we have had 7 years where our 2nd rounder was significantly better than our 1st rounder. If you exclude all the years without a 2nd or a 1st, that has happened 7 of 21 times.

I read an analysis article a couple of seasons ago and they found that after the 3rd or 4th round, the highest success rates were almost always OL. But that is also a position that requires five guys to play, so the numbers are naturally stacked.

TBH, we have rarely had 2nd round picks that are as bad as the Clausen's or Jarrett's. We have had less home run picks than we should be it has mostly been solid players.

If he doesn't make any impact this season, he will be one of the bigger busts we have had in recent memory. His wAV/GM is already pretty similar to Dwayne Jarrett.

Also sometimes guys that get drafted lower don't get a fair shot because of where they were drafted. Same with UDFA's. If you are about even with a 5th round pick, who do you think the coaches are likely to keep around?

Yeah, once you get to the NFL almost everyone is a great athlete. You need to excel at your craft and continue to get better every day if you are going to make it. Which, he was also a 4th round pick, so it's hard to get too upset on swinging big at that stage of the draft. If he pans out, maybe that's our 15-16% guy.

There will be a significant explosion in salaries, some of that has already creeped into the free agent market. $25 mil for a second tier pass rusher might not be outlandish soon. But, if Burns really starts to improve, $25 mil will seem like a bargain.

May's should stick around but if he doesn't start relatively early(in his career), I wouldn't expect him to be a starting player here. That seems to be the general way that works for most of those guys. Smith I expect to be gone from the active roster fairly quickly. IMO, he's a guy that is extremely limited, albeit a great athlete. It's hard to justify keeping a guy around with his limitations just because he might be decent in kick coverage.

Agreed. That is about how I slot them. That was one reason why Marshall was such a head scratcher from last season. Genuinely perplexed by how ineffective he was. That was a guy I was sure was going to be a season one contributor.

Can you imagine what Rhule would come up with? I shudder to think about it.

I figured I would do a little Panthers draft history stroll with some "data" to show how often these guys pan out. Sometimes we need a little enthusiasm check heading into TC season(roughly 2 months away). A note on methodology. I am using a .25 wAV/GM threshold as being "exceptional." For the past decade(2011-2021 drafts) here are the exceptional players(so far). Understand that this threshold is and should be lower for picks in this range: - Chubba Hubbard(4th - 2021) - Dennis Daley(6th - 2019) - Harrison Butker(7th - 2017) - Daryl Williams(4th - 2015) - Tre Boston(4th - 2014) - AJ Klein(5th - 2013) - Josh Norman(5th - 2012) Note: I well aware that Butker, Daley and Hubbard could very easily fall below this threshold in the coming years. That is 7 out of 44 picks or roughly 16% success rate. Using the same threshold, our historic hit rate is: 15.4% So, given that these rates are fairly similar I suspect that is a reasonable expectation of these guys panning out in that range. It also means that you shouldn't expect one of these picks to be a hit every season. TLDR Low hit rate on 4th-7th picks. Don't get overly excited about them.

I didn't like him lashing out at the fans in frustration last season. He needs to stop paying attention to the fans or social media and keep his mind in his craft. We need a very good year from him otherwise that pick is gonna start looking foolish. We can't afford to have bust top 10 picks. Especially given how few elite talent guys we have on the roster.

It isn't like the guys in front of him are playing great either. Once again, a team effort to poo the bed on the road. Not trying to excuse Raanta but we play like poo in every phase of the game on the road. It's maddening.

It was kind of obvious fairly early this was gonna happen. We just don't win road games. If we just hold serve at home, we can make the Stanley Cup Finals. But, if we face the Avs it's a done deal. I don't see a single road game victory the rest of the playoffs(however long or short). We are completely incapable of doing it.

Dude, Pyotr would be crushed by these guys. His future could be bright but it's definitely not now.

Whelp, this is fuging over. I can safely turn this off.

Yep, looking like standard Canes playoff road hockey. What a joke. I just don't understand why we suck so badly on the road.

That was bad. All Raanta there.

These NHL guys are warriors. No soft guys like soccer or MLB.

Going sort of the way I expected so far. Already looking a little flat.

He is going to have to bounce back well, because he was below average last season. I gotta be honest, we need Burns to take a step forward, as well. Right now it might be hard to justify giving him a huge contract based on production.

If a 20+ year old record or largely minor legal flags are an issue, probably not a place you would want to work anyway. I would put more into perhaps some personality flaws perhaps being the reasons. Or maybe he just isn't head coach material. Many an effective coordinator or assistant wasn't a capable head coach. It's an interesting case, though.