kungfoodude

I mean....we can get a WR that does what Robby did last year on a vet minimum deal.

1000% agree. We the fans don't get to see the practices nor film study nor any of the work these guys are putting in to get better. So when you have a bunch of underperformed veteran players playing ahead of the guys you drafted, it's extremely frustrating as a fan. Are these guys not capable of playing? Do they just need more development? Is the coaching staff making good personnel evaluations? What exactly is the reason we aren't seeing these guys more? Is the player evaluation a problem? Is the player development a problem? Is standard roster bureaucracy the problem? When we don't see these guys play as the team loses game after game, with veterans playing terrible....we have only questions and no answers. It sucks.

Yeah, but getting into games and getting meaningful time is completely different. A chunk of that PT was due to injuries or poor performances from players ahead of them. From our 2020 guys, we need to see a clear improvement and the start of being a solid NFL professional. From our 2021 guys, we just need to see the incremental improvement that shows they are learning and progressing. Brown definitely has a critical year coming. He has to show consistency and shore up his technique issues that lead to him getting out of position so much. If he can't get that accomplished, he's leaning bust at three years of starting experience. For YGM, we need to see him basically come in and establish himself as a starter or critical rotation guy. Establish yourself as the DE that should get the most reps on that side. Chinn we just need to see get better at coverage and understanding his role as a safety. If all those things happen, 2021 was a home run class. If none of them happen, it's not looking great. For 2021, it's just about getting Horn on the field and getting some production and high caliber play from the rest of the draft. If Hubbard can take a step forward, we have a plan if/when CMC goes down again. If Marshall finally wakes up, we have another serious WR threat. If we find some actual role for BC, that is a big win. If Tremble can establish himself as a more consistent pass catching threat and keep improving on his blocking, he might be a long term solution. If we can get basically ANYONE from the rest of that draft as a solid rotational player or even a starter, that's a home run. But we need at least 2-3 of those things to happen. If not.....ooof. That 2021 class is looking really bad.

Not sure. Perhaps Mays? Corral would be the obvious choice if we could pick someone.

You watch our games much?

I mean....I guess maybe that could be true. I don't know. It's rare a player just completely disappears to the level he did. I hope it's just a dum-dum Rhule issue. If not.....woof. That 2021 draft already looks pretty bad as it is.

We traded them all away for Jimmy G. Forever.

I don't even know that his miss rate was that much higher than our other GM's. I think it was that when he missed, it was literally guys who didn't even belong in the NFL. I can imagine there was a lot of laughing in various draft war rooms at some of those guys getting picked in the 2nd.

Yeah but that is over the span of 27 years. Look at our 2nd rounders historically. The hit rates have been pretty damn good. In fact we have had 7 years where our 2nd rounder was significantly better than our 1st rounder. If you exclude all the years without a 2nd or a 1st, that has happened 7 of 21 times.

I read an analysis article a couple of seasons ago and they found that after the 3rd or 4th round, the highest success rates were almost always OL. But that is also a position that requires five guys to play, so the numbers are naturally stacked.

TBH, we have rarely had 2nd round picks that are as bad as the Clausen's or Jarrett's. We have had less home run picks than we should be it has mostly been solid players.

If he doesn't make any impact this season, he will be one of the bigger busts we have had in recent memory. His wAV/GM is already pretty similar to Dwayne Jarrett.

Also sometimes guys that get drafted lower don't get a fair shot because of where they were drafted. Same with UDFA's. If you are about even with a 5th round pick, who do you think the coaches are likely to keep around?

Yeah, once you get to the NFL almost everyone is a great athlete. You need to excel at your craft and continue to get better every day if you are going to make it. Which, he was also a 4th round pick, so it's hard to get too upset on swinging big at that stage of the draft. If he pans out, maybe that's our 15-16% guy.

There will be a significant explosion in salaries, some of that has already creeped into the free agent market. $25 mil for a second tier pass rusher might not be outlandish soon. But, if Burns really starts to improve, $25 mil will seem like a bargain.

May's should stick around but if he doesn't start relatively early(in his career), I wouldn't expect him to be a starting player here. That seems to be the general way that works for most of those guys. Smith I expect to be gone from the active roster fairly quickly. IMO, he's a guy that is extremely limited, albeit a great athlete. It's hard to justify keeping a guy around with his limitations just because he might be decent in kick coverage.

Agreed. That is about how I slot them. That was one reason why Marshall was such a head scratcher from last season. Genuinely perplexed by how ineffective he was. That was a guy I was sure was going to be a season one contributor.

Can you imagine what Rhule would come up with? I shudder to think about it.

I figured I would do a little Panthers draft history stroll with some "data" to show how often these guys pan out. Sometimes we need a little enthusiasm check heading into TC season(roughly 2 months away). A note on methodology. I am using a .25 wAV/GM threshold as being "exceptional." For the past decade(2011-2021 drafts) here are the exceptional players(so far). Understand that this threshold is and should be lower for picks in this range: - Chubba Hubbard(4th - 2021) - Dennis Daley(6th - 2019) - Harrison Butker(7th - 2017) - Daryl Williams(4th - 2015) - Tre Boston(4th - 2014) - AJ Klein(5th - 2013) - Josh Norman(5th - 2012) Note: I well aware that Butker, Daley and Hubbard could very easily fall below this threshold in the coming years. That is 7 out of 44 picks or roughly 16% success rate. Using the same threshold, our historic hit rate is: 15.4% So, given that these rates are fairly similar I suspect that is a reasonable expectation of these guys panning out in that range. It also means that you shouldn't expect one of these picks to be a hit every season. TLDR Low hit rate on 4th-7th picks. Don't get overly excited about them.

I didn't like him lashing out at the fans in frustration last season. He needs to stop paying attention to the fans or social media and keep his mind in his craft. We need a very good year from him otherwise that pick is gonna start looking foolish. We can't afford to have bust top 10 picks. Especially given how few elite talent guys we have on the roster.

It isn't like the guys in front of him are playing great either. Once again, a team effort to poo the bed on the road. Not trying to excuse Raanta but we play like poo in every phase of the game on the road. It's maddening.

It was kind of obvious fairly early this was gonna happen. We just don't win road games. If we just hold serve at home, we can make the Stanley Cup Finals. But, if we face the Avs it's a done deal. I don't see a single road game victory the rest of the playoffs(however long or short). We are completely incapable of doing it.

Dude, Pyotr would be crushed by these guys. His future could be bright but it's definitely not now.