kungfoodude

You want Dalton, Hooker or White??? What answer is on the roster?

I keep telling people this. We got some people here insanely high on hopium. On Dalton, to continue to play and start a QB with a broken thumb makes Canales look even more insanely stupid as a head coach. If it happens again this week, even with Hooker/White as our only available options......I am 100% okay with terminating him immediately after the game. This level of stupidity is starting to get into Matt Rhule territory.

In fairness, the 2025 QB class has looked like absolute ass.

It's not a massive investment so "beyond stupid" is hyperbolic. It's just generally unnecessary. At this point, the results have been basically very similar. He can elevate his game to moderate game manager levels at his peak and mostly he is a significantly below average NFL QB. He is essentially an upper half NFL backup QB at the moment. It's possible he develops eventually. I will never say it's IMPOSSIBLE for that to happen but does anyone honestly think that is likely? If so, based on what aspects of his 2.5 year career so far? Why does his gameplay look so similar to 2023 when the investments in the offense have been so immense?

He is 39th in QBERT, 24th in QBR(of 33 qualifying), 26th in QB Rating, 21st in Success Rate, 29th in Completion% Above Expectation, etc, etc.

No, he's a top 20 guy but he isn't an elite pass rusher. That was always the argument against paying him. Also, he isn't versatile. He is very frequently a big liability if the opposing team runs at him.

I would be fine with that.

I could do an average or a weighted distribution for each round. I would want to use something like Career AV or similar to do that. It's a little more straightforward. I am generally wanting to keep it as a "round based" thing because I want to ultimately use it to gauge when/where to draft QB's based on results.

I don't generally think that will emerge as a pattern. It's a blip. Darnold is a TBD as a "success" and Geno isn't looking hot.

Yeah, grading individual players and "success" level is harder, IMO. I could always do an average based on career AV and then create something based on that. That might be interesting.

The guys you are talking about as "successes" are considerably older than the last two or three years. It is possible that preparation isn't as robust in college anymore(this has been brought up before by several observers). For Darnold as a single example, he literally has less experience playing QB than any single current QB on an NFL roster. Including rookies.

Lol. WTF are you talking about?

I am confused by what you are asking. Also, the preliminary resulta of the model don't bear out that later round picks have a higher success rate. Remember, I am not ranking QB's.

Well, that's the general idea of the model.

People keep looking at the Mayfield's of the world and thinking that is the norm. It is not. Same with Geno. Darnold is a TBD but could he one. Regardless, those are in fact outliers. People assume this is very simple to do every offseason, despite the fact it quite literally almost never happens.

Salary inflation has happened so that is far from an apples to apples. It would make him the 20th highest AAV QB in the NFL, however. Jones is likely to eclipse that and I don't think there are major QB contracts coming due that would bump him down further than 21st. Still too much, IMO.

I will use his career in Detroit, who is VERY adept at talent evaluations and their willingness to move on from him so quickly as a 3rd round pick as pretty damning evidence. Matt Corral-esque, dare I say.

Yeah but you don't want to be the guy that drafts the next Josh Rosen. Let someone else do that. Howell is a decent 3rd string guy, for sure. We would still need to draft a potential 1st/2nd stringer, though. Bcuz Panthers, bruh. Bcuz.....Panthers.

For as hyped as the 2025 Draft DE class was, it hasn't produced a lot of sacks at the almost halfway point of the season. Early returns are looking less than stellar. TE, WR and RB class are having some big successes, however. That depth appears to be very valid.

Technically our guys are in the top 6 in sacks for rookies and Scourton is tied for the lead.

You would need to filter for postseason STARTS, actually. It's why I eliminated all Super Bowl criteria. Backups get rings too. If you come up with a workable tier system, post it and I will try the 1st rounders as a test to see the results.

Yeah, I am fine with rostering 3 QB's. A older vet/gamble on a younger, "distressed asset" vet and a drafted QB. At least there are some options to roll through when Bryce is just Bryce again.

If you have been in college as long as Nussmeier and you are a one read QB, you are not an NFL QB. That's a 6th/7th rounder even with the size/arm.

We had that, sort of. Jake Delhomme. We had a shot at a real franchise QB that wasn't even a reclaimation project. We ended up making him play DE on the scout team.

So how would you tier that?