kungfoodude

INB4 4-6 bad snaps from Corbett. Boy....it is time to draft a MFing center.

Even if he did, he was rarely spraying throws all over the place. He was just holding on to the ball and extending the play to get sacked. The only logic that could potentially be applied is lack of faith in his ability to make the throw because of his thumb. If so, even more damning. So you actively hurt the team because....why exactly???

I didn't think Dalton was gonna be this bad. I was thinking around Bryce Young level bad. The perplexing thing about Sunday wasn't anything physical, it was mental. That's inexcusable as a long time, successful veteran and as a backup QB. You can't just show up and poop your pants when you get the shot. Well that was cholera.

I am using the term differently, neither of us are using it in the true investment industry sense of meaning. I mean basically a formerly high value asset that is now reduced in value due to their own performance. In Baker's case, that was not true at all. The Browns just soured on him and moved him at a low value to us. Jones was a little bit of a mix. He was a middle to lower tier NFL starter on a bad contract extension. I use that term for guys like Wilson, Young, etc because they seem to be largely responsible for their own shortcomings, with some caveats.

A high ceiling and/or highly drafted QB that didn't pan out with the initial or subsequent teams. Mayfield was not a distressed asset. The Panthers made that appear to be the case. Jones was an upper tier version of that what I am talking about but he also had success with the Giants. It was not all a mess. Think more of a Zach Wilson/Bryce Young/Sam Darnold classic bust.

Okay, okay. I get it. I will say that the pitch there was for two ADDITIONAL options. So, one being a "scratch and dent" QB isn't as critical, especially when paired with a rookie QB. That's just more darts at the board. Not the best strategy but it's better than standing pat with Dalton and whatever these couch QB's are. Ideally, you find a capable veteran but I really don't see that as likely.

Well, two of the only QB's that have performed worse than Bryce are Gabriel and Ward. In limited time playing, only Ewers and Shough were worse than Gabriel and Ward.

You want Dalton, Hooker or White??? What answer is on the roster?

I keep telling people this. We got some people here insanely high on hopium. On Dalton, to continue to play and start a QB with a broken thumb makes Canales look even more insanely stupid as a head coach. If it happens again this week, even with Hooker/White as our only available options......I am 100% okay with terminating him immediately after the game. This level of stupidity is starting to get into Matt Rhule territory.

In fairness, the 2025 QB class has looked like absolute ass.

It's not a massive investment so "beyond stupid" is hyperbolic. It's just generally unnecessary. At this point, the results have been basically very similar. He can elevate his game to moderate game manager levels at his peak and mostly he is a significantly below average NFL QB. He is essentially an upper half NFL backup QB at the moment. It's possible he develops eventually. I will never say it's IMPOSSIBLE for that to happen but does anyone honestly think that is likely? If so, based on what aspects of his 2.5 year career so far? Why does his gameplay look so similar to 2023 when the investments in the offense have been so immense?

He is 39th in QBERT, 24th in QBR(of 33 qualifying), 26th in QB Rating, 21st in Success Rate, 29th in Completion% Above Expectation, etc, etc.

No, he's a top 20 guy but he isn't an elite pass rusher. That was always the argument against paying him. Also, he isn't versatile. He is very frequently a big liability if the opposing team runs at him.

I would be fine with that.

I could do an average or a weighted distribution for each round. I would want to use something like Career AV or similar to do that. It's a little more straightforward. I am generally wanting to keep it as a "round based" thing because I want to ultimately use it to gauge when/where to draft QB's based on results.

I don't generally think that will emerge as a pattern. It's a blip. Darnold is a TBD as a "success" and Geno isn't looking hot.

Yeah, grading individual players and "success" level is harder, IMO. I could always do an average based on career AV and then create something based on that. That might be interesting.

The guys you are talking about as "successes" are considerably older than the last two or three years. It is possible that preparation isn't as robust in college anymore(this has been brought up before by several observers). For Darnold as a single example, he literally has less experience playing QB than any single current QB on an NFL roster. Including rookies.

Lol. WTF are you talking about?

I am confused by what you are asking. Also, the preliminary resulta of the model don't bear out that later round picks have a higher success rate. Remember, I am not ranking QB's.

Well, that's the general idea of the model.

People keep looking at the Mayfield's of the world and thinking that is the norm. It is not. Same with Geno. Darnold is a TBD but could he one. Regardless, those are in fact outliers. People assume this is very simple to do every offseason, despite the fact it quite literally almost never happens.

Salary inflation has happened so that is far from an apples to apples. It would make him the 20th highest AAV QB in the NFL, however. Jones is likely to eclipse that and I don't think there are major QB contracts coming due that would bump him down further than 21st. Still too much, IMO.

I will use his career in Detroit, who is VERY adept at talent evaluations and their willingness to move on from him so quickly as a 3rd round pick as pretty damning evidence. Matt Corral-esque, dare I say.

Yeah but you don't want to be the guy that drafts the next Josh Rosen. Let someone else do that. Howell is a decent 3rd string guy, for sure. We would still need to draft a potential 1st/2nd stringer, though. Bcuz Panthers, bruh. Bcuz.....Panthers.