kungfoodude

Throwing him out there is not how to build confidence. Sitting him until he is ready is. He needs at least probably a season or two on the pine to regain anything.

If they did it was hard to tell with the 2024 draft. Boy that was a very Fitterer draft.

Honestly, maybe not as much as you would think. I lot of the guys that are crushing it do so fairly across the board. The amount of long tenured day three picks was eye opening, even if they were just backups.

Well, the Rams are more toward the middle of the pack in GPPP. That's without any first round picks too. If you look at then specifically, it's just not many hits in general. They have had a BUNCH of 2nd and 3rd round picks that didn't pan out either(14 total).

From 2023 and 2024, yes. For the most part that has already happened to the 2019-2022 guys. Hence why I say that the data is probably a pretty decent look at the overall. It includes all those guys on all these rosters that had the different trajectories. If I extended it out further by a few years, I don't suspect it is going to drastically change much. Usually the thing that moved the needle the most was teams with a ton of guys that played for 30+ games(across the board, not just in the first 3 rounds) or 1 or 2 massive drafts of high wAV players. One of the very obvious differences between us and some of the top teams is that we don't get many of the 4th to 7th round journeymen backups that you see on better teams. That is literally almost nonexistent for us.

Again, completely untrue. We have drafted 43 players from 2019 to 2024, only 18 have stepped onto an NFL field in 2024. This is what I am saying, even in our situation, those guys are typically out of the league very quickly. From 2019-2022(31 picks), only six of those drafted players remain on our roster. Only 9 are still active in the NFL. Our low amount of games per player is indicating that we don't even have drafted guys stay in the league more than a couple of seasons. Feel free to look, I already looked at all 32 teams.

That actually not really true. If you look at the raw data, it's far more common for lower round picks to stick around far longer on the teams at the top of that list. Largely because they do a better job of talent evaluation and also utilizing players more effectively, IMO. It's also that the "hits" are much bigger and/or much more frequent.

I have no qualms with Dalton nor rolling with him beyond this year. He was never going to be a miracle worker. Yesterday he needed a miracle to be able to overcome the horrible defense. He didn't play horrible at all.

In short, we have the 31st ranked average playing time for draft picks(can be interpreted as career length and/or injury related). We have the 26th rated Approximate Value per player in this era. So there are actually 6 teams that have arguably performed worse in the NFL Draft than we have.

Never underestimate how dumb our owner is.

Here are some breakdowns for how we stack up to the rest of the NFL in terms of "Draft Quality." This is from 2019-2023, so basically the "Tepper Era." Tepper took over in May 2018, so our 2018 draft was completely without his input at all so it was not included. The current year cannot be included as the wAV/AV is not generated until after the postseason. wAV is Pro Football Reference's Weighted Approximate Value. I didn't do a DrAV breakdown which would isolate for how the drafted players performed for the team that drafted them but this is really a look at overall talent evaluation and not development.

Here is a fun little factoid. From 2018 to 2021(four full drafts) we drafted a total of 33 players). Only four of them are still on the team. A retention rate of 12.1%. From 2022 to 2024 we have drafted 18 players. We currently have only 11 on the team. A retention rate of just 61.1%. I suspect the 2022 to 2024 retention rate will plumment towards the end of those rookie deals. And people wonder why we are so bad.

Those are the picks you throw out in the 5th-7th round. Get some potential special teams aces to develop. But using the same strategy in the 2nd-4th round??? It's nuts. ESPECIALLY when you literally don't have any talent on the team.

This is an underrated comment. I do wonder if our analytical approach is literally completely broken. The numbers/models are only as good as thosd creating them. And they damn sure aren't better than watching the tape and having seasoned evaluators break people down.

Well typically our 1st round guys are just slightly to moderately disappointing. It's the 2nd to 4th rounders where we really do our best work and literally get next to nothing out of.

I mean, in a year where we have all the PT in the world available we have very limited impact. XL has been extremely unreliable with flashes of why we drafted him. Brooks is still MIA. Wallace piled up a bunch of tackles yesterday being apparently the only guy that can actually wrap up on the team. Sanders looks completely lost when he is on the field more often than not. So MAYBE one impact-ish player so far? That's terrible.

Yeah, there has been past grumblings about our scouting department, I remember. Has anyone looked at an org. chart to see how long thess guys have been with us? @Mr. Scot is this something you did a deep dive on in the past by chance?

A lot of those offenses in college just train you to be a zombie. I am painting with a broad stroke here so don't take this as anything that is 100%. The scheme allows technically less adept players to also excel. Hence why you see a guy like Mingo look good in that kind of offense in college. But he is a sloppy route runner and has poor hands.

You could have drafted a guy that will absolutely have a long and successful NFL career in Ladd McConkey. Certainly, he is never going to be a Jefferson, Adams, etc but he is going to carve out a meaningful role as a slot receiver. These are the type of guys we absolutely refuse to take. Sure things. Or maybe we just overdraft an injured RB instead of a starting caliber NFL center in Zach Frazier? We just keep doing the same ignorant horseshit. We shoot for high ceiling, very low floor guys over and over and over again. And we do it completely regardless of the fact that we have so unbelievably rarely been able to develop any of that talent. Without the luxury of having a deep roster to stash someone on to develop. Look at poor Wallace. Another high ceiling and incredibly low floor guy that isn't playing special teams....he's fuging starting and stinking it up. Why? Why do we keep doing this to ourselves and these fuging players?

Given our rich history to draft insane busts(TMJ, Mingo, Corral being recent examples) but spanning multiple iterations of General Managers, do you think the core of the problem is our management or our scouting department? Do we have long tenured scouts that have been here through multiple terrible drafts?

He has the capability to be a shut down corner but I worry about the high mileage on him. But, this is also one of the very few areas on the team we seem to be above average at. Admittedly, the idea of Hunter/Horn as a combo is pretty amazing.

You mean not body catchers that "bloomed" as 5th year WR's? Or air raid guys?

I would basically go to our scouting department and ask for their favorite WR's outside the first round. Immediately take those guys off the board entirely.

I am fine. I moved into the "acceptance" part early last season. I know this is going to suck for a very long time so I basically don't get worked up at all about it.

He won't but he is also a success driven egomaniac, so this will all hurt him. This is the one small glimmer of hope we have is that he doesn't appear to be happy about failure. Snyder didn't want to fail but he meddled because it "wasn't fun" if he wasn't intimately involved. Guys like Modell were notoriously cheap. Michael Jordan is the perfect example, as he was never interested in winning if it cost him a dime of this money. Jerry Jones always believes he knows best, so he will never stop meddling, despite almost all his true success being authored by a far more knowledgeable football mind. So in that regard, perhaps we have a leg up on some of these scenarios....in theory. The question is whether he is capable of learning the NFL(doubtful), whether he is capable of eventually backing into a talented architect of a successful organization(doubtful) and maybe most importantly, if he can keep his hands off the product IF we do finally get the right building blocks in place. That last one seems highly doubtful. He amassed his fortune by doing his own thing and running it on his own. So all of his success has been defined by him being "the man." I don't see that being something easy to deprogram, especially for someone that is in his age range.