kungfoodude

I am confused by what you are asking. Also, the preliminary resulta of the model don't bear out that later round picks have a higher success rate. Remember, I am not ranking QB's.

Well, that's the general idea of the model.

People keep looking at the Mayfield's of the world and thinking that is the norm. It is not. Same with Geno. Darnold is a TBD but could he one. Regardless, those are in fact outliers. People assume this is very simple to do every offseason, despite the fact it quite literally almost never happens.

Salary inflation has happened so that is far from an apples to apples. It would make him the 20th highest AAV QB in the NFL, however. Jones is likely to eclipse that and I don't think there are major QB contracts coming due that would bump him down further than 21st. Still too much, IMO.

I will use his career in Detroit, who is VERY adept at talent evaluations and their willingness to move on from him so quickly as a 3rd round pick as pretty damning evidence. Matt Corral-esque, dare I say.

Yeah but you don't want to be the guy that drafts the next Josh Rosen. Let someone else do that. Howell is a decent 3rd string guy, for sure. We would still need to draft a potential 1st/2nd stringer, though. Bcuz Panthers, bruh. Bcuz.....Panthers.

For as hyped as the 2025 Draft DE class was, it hasn't produced a lot of sacks at the almost halfway point of the season. Early returns are looking less than stellar. TE, WR and RB class are having some big successes, however. That depth appears to be very valid.

Technically our guys are in the top 6 in sacks for rookies and Scourton is tied for the lead.

You would need to filter for postseason STARTS, actually. It's why I eliminated all Super Bowl criteria. Backups get rings too. If you come up with a workable tier system, post it and I will try the 1st rounders as a test to see the results.

Yeah, I am fine with rostering 3 QB's. A older vet/gamble on a younger, "distressed asset" vet and a drafted QB. At least there are some options to roll through when Bryce is just Bryce again.

If you have been in college as long as Nussmeier and you are a one read QB, you are not an NFL QB. That's a 6th/7th rounder even with the size/arm.

We had that, sort of. Jake Delhomme. We had a shot at a real franchise QB that wasn't even a reclaimation project. We ended up making him play DE on the scout team.

So how would you tier that?

Why didn't feast last year? Was it maybe due to the lack of another elite pass rusher being across from him? Is he just a guy that needs only elite players on the DL to produce at an elite level? Is he elite then? I will say other elite pass rushers don't seem to have the issue with producing like he does.

I mean, I don't really think he is a starting QB. We are starting him at QB. Anthony Richardson was technically a starting QB. Justin Fields is technically a starting QB. The one common trait they share is that none of them are actually starting QB caliber.

I disagree. He appeared to have 15 pounds of rocks attached to his brain. Andy has never been a great athlete and he is less so with age. He is typically fairly decisive and doesn't hold onto the ball too long. That was not Sunday. It looked as if Bryce Young's brain had inhabited Andy's decrepit body with the full confidence of Bryce at Alabama.

You are misreading that table. The $12 mil is happening no matter what. That is fully guaranteed. $37 mil is the value of his total rookie contract without the option. The option would be $26.5 mil at the moment, but that number would likely rise. Currently: https://overthecap.com/fifth-year-option-projections

The issue with that option is that it's going to be pretty pricey. $26.5ish mil is a tough pill to swallow for a non-starter. Doesn't have to be in the 1st either. I think this class will be pretty deep with #2 QB's.

I think we have largely ignored a lot of red flags for Canales and excused them as "learning." Remember when Ron talked about reaching out to his mentors during his early tenure here? I question if Canales really has those resources to even draw upon.

That's okay. I am very comfortable judging that Hooker is not a rosterable NFL QB. That's why he is here in Carolina. That's why 31 other teams said, "Nah, I'm good." Same decision makers chose him.

Our talent is DB. They have an arguably better version of DB and a fleet of exceptional pass rushers. There is a reason he is feasting. Most of those reasons would evaporate here. It would be a standard Burns year. Poor run defense on a consistent basis, getting abused in coverage in this scheme, creating QB pressures but getting very few sacks comparatively. He never really changed at all while he was here. He didn't look literally any different in NY last year, either.

The Rams have to be so insanely amped they dodged that bullet. Ended up with a far better, cheaper and younger version of Burns.

Hooker is on the PJ Walker end, which is to say not an NFL QB at all. That is accurate. The opportunity for Hooker to play was in that last ass whipping. That was probably it for the foreseeable future of his career.

The Forever Brycers will never admit that he isn't a starting caliber NFL QB. There will always be an excuse. Same as all the other oddball player only fans we get here periodically. And then they will slink away in the middle of the night when the truth emerges. The actual Panther fans that stay will just have tired excuses for a couple of years about how he will "ball out elsewhere", quote Sam Darnold/Baker Mayfield/Geno Smith, and then when that doesn't happen they will get suspiciously quiet on any snide remarks by the rest of the Huddle regarding what a bust he was here.

It's a safe bet to assume Hooker is terrible.