kungfoodude

You are misreading that table. The $12 mil is happening no matter what. That is fully guaranteed. $37 mil is the value of his total rookie contract without the option. The option would be $26.5 mil at the moment, but that number would likely rise. Currently: https://overthecap.com/fifth-year-option-projections

The issue with that option is that it's going to be pretty pricey. $26.5ish mil is a tough pill to swallow for a non-starter. Doesn't have to be in the 1st either. I think this class will be pretty deep with #2 QB's.

I think we have largely ignored a lot of red flags for Canales and excused them as "learning." Remember when Ron talked about reaching out to his mentors during his early tenure here? I question if Canales really has those resources to even draw upon.

That's okay. I am very comfortable judging that Hooker is not a rosterable NFL QB. That's why he is here in Carolina. That's why 31 other teams said, "Nah, I'm good." Same decision makers chose him.

Our talent is DB. They have an arguably better version of DB and a fleet of exceptional pass rushers. There is a reason he is feasting. Most of those reasons would evaporate here. It would be a standard Burns year. Poor run defense on a consistent basis, getting abused in coverage in this scheme, creating QB pressures but getting very few sacks comparatively. He never really changed at all while he was here. He didn't look literally any different in NY last year, either.

The Rams have to be so insanely amped they dodged that bullet. Ended up with a far better, cheaper and younger version of Burns.

Hooker is on the PJ Walker end, which is to say not an NFL QB at all. That is accurate. The opportunity for Hooker to play was in that last ass whipping. That was probably it for the foreseeable future of his career.

The Forever Brycers will never admit that he isn't a starting caliber NFL QB. There will always be an excuse. Same as all the other oddball player only fans we get here periodically. And then they will slink away in the middle of the night when the truth emerges. The actual Panther fans that stay will just have tired excuses for a couple of years about how he will "ball out elsewhere", quote Sam Darnold/Baker Mayfield/Geno Smith, and then when that doesn't happen they will get suspiciously quiet on any snide remarks by the rest of the Huddle regarding what a bust he was here.

It's a safe bet to assume Hooker is terrible.

Our general idea seems to be amassing role players and giving them starter reps.

Agreed. Throw two darts at the board. I think Bryce's option being picked up is a foregone conclusion. I also would not pick it up were I making the decision. Dalton can be cut with fairly minimal dead cap($3.5-6 mil). Any available name(basically all veterans with options will steer clear of us) should be a one year, prove it deal. It's unlikely there is a long term Panthers solution on that list. Perhaps a halfway decent bridge QB or two.

It wouldn’t be markedly better with Burns. He is feasting because he is surrounded by freakishly talented DL. That's not the case here. Plus he took a pretty big drop off from his back to back PB seasons when Evro showed up. I suspect he wouldn't be terribly effective in this defense. Certainly would improve our pass rush but not enough to truly matter.

Mac Jones is under contract. These are the QB's that will be free agents(not including any potential cuts).

If there is substantial risk of further injury OR a dramatic reduction in playing ability that will reduce the player to less capable than the corresponding backup, yes. Outside of that, I don't know why you wouldn't just play them. For Mayes, the backup in question has proven to be very unreliable. Not to mention you then rob the OG spot of a quality player. For Moton, there is no capable backup without BC. For Young, the drop of to Dalton was greater than anticipated but he also had a game very similar in outcome to "bad Bryce" games. Minimal impact. Zavala is purely a backup. A suspect one. For Wallace, I am sure there is a drop off but he is already so bad that the impact isn't meaningful.

Yes but that is different from the "build it and they will come" model that @Basbear was talking about. That's just standard dumpster diving. We have had all of our non-Bryce starting QB's from that pile since Cam was shown the door. It's been a total of two starts by QB's drafted by the Panthers from 2019-2022 without including Cam 2.0. Technically Cam 2.0 was also dumpster diving.

Those aren't elite QB's. Those are reclaimation projects, most of which have failed. Those should be available most offseasons given recent history.

That's the other way of building, for sure. Build a team and they will come. Now, this is largely a "backside of career" model. Elite QB's are almost never available in their prime.

Well, almost 50% of the QB's meet my criteria in that sample size(1994-2018). That's a good hit rate.

I mean, he had a couple off target but it was far more of a problem with his decision making. Well....lack thereof, TBH.

Yeah, could is accurate. Not a foregone conclusion. I couldn't believe it. Made zero sense. Looked like Terry Rozier on the Hornets

The real fun question is going to be who Tepper loses patience with first. Bryce? Dave? Dan? I don't think it will be at the same time, I think it's gonna be spread out. I somewhat suspect Dave will be first, Bryce will be second and Dan will be last.

I don't think the QB was going to win the game for us. A ball control rushing offense would have. Especially one featuring heavy Rico usage. But Canales had other ideas, obviously. And we see how well that worked out.

That's a maybe. Bryce misses a lot of reads every game. And really for the same reason Andy did there, he bailed and started running around. The more damning thing was the holding onto the ball to "extend" plays and just getting sacked. That's not Andy's game at all. Never has been. That was uncharacteristic to the point of being absurd. You are a veteran, what the actual fug are you doing fuging around back there??? Throw it the fug away or make a decision. People talk Andy being washed in terms of physical ability but I don't think that really played a factor. It was his crippling indecisiveness that literally looked like year 1 Bryce that was infuriating. He looked like Vikings Carson Wentz or Jets era Sam Darnold. It was insane.

The wife thing is infuriating because it just shows the kind of shitshow Tepper has really run and how insanely unprofessional we are as a franchise. If you have any random, unqualified family member putting their two cents in to a critical draft decision, you are already off the reservation. IMO, that can largely extend to the owner, as well. I realize they have privileges there due to the ownership but I am firmly in the camp of, "Let your football people handle football stuff." We don't do that. Tepper is too smart to let these peons run his IRL fantasy football team.

Bradford and Pennington would have passed 2nd round criteria. The 1st round criteria is a little higher and career longevity isn't factored. Years started is, because as a 1st round draft pick, the expectation is that you will be a starter and likely for a long time. But you can see why I shied away from using statistical means. You can end up cutting some objectively amazing players like Steve McNair or Cam Newton. Or even someone like Eli Manning. That's why I stayed with award/accolade or length of starting career or career. The logic being that if your peers(HOF), the fans/peers(Pro Bowl) or the media(All Pro) regarded you as one of the best, that accounts for a lot. It's taking a wide swath of largely well regarded opinions about a player's performance. In a manner of speaking so does career and starting length. That is the greater NFL(FO, coaching staffs, etc) saying that you are a valuable addition to the organization in some capacity(starter or backup). Statistics are tough because they ignore changes in the game and the vast differences in individual QB's. Cam was never a high completion percentage guy but he dominated many of the games he started. He changed the way people played us. TD:INT ratio seems like a decent enough marker but it eliminates gunslingers and especially old school style gunslingers. Guys that might have had MVP caliber performances(McNair) couldn't meet that criteria. It would probably be equally difficult to screen players by career winning percentage, QB rating, etc. Using individual statistical means to measure a career is really fuging hard. Doesn't mean I can't use them but I need input because a lot of the things I have attempted just didn't have great results in what I would say are "successful" careers. And my methodology isn't perfect. Certainly there are strong arguments against some of them people that met my criteria. Largely the Pro Bowl. I suppose I could increase that to 2+.