KB_fan

Still thinking about 3rd down conversions today... and I got to wondering whether there was any site that tracked how often teams face 3rd down on offense. (3rd down attempts as % of all plays on offense). I didn't find one.... but with a little cutting and pasting from various sites, I was able to cobble a table together. Here's the result: I see an opportunity!!! Houston has faced 3rd down on 26% of its plays.... should give Panthers D a chance to make some plays! I've not (yet) been able to find any site that provides data on 3rd down by distance, e.g. to calculate how good teams are at converting 3rd & longs. If anyone has any leads on where to find that data, I'd love to know. I did find an article / site that tracked that for college football: https://staturdays.com/2021/01/14/comparing-third-down-conversion-rate-by-distance-to-go/ In 2020, the average college team converted 3rd & 7 / 3rd & 8 about 36% of the time, and 3rd & 9 or 3rd & 10 about 31% of the time. So far Panthers are converting 3rd and long (7 yards and longer) about 18% of the time. But it was wildly uneven (0% Jets) (33% Saints). Panthers Defense is holding opposing defenses to 26% average conversion rate on 3rd & long. (38% Jets, 22% Saints).

Baldy's got another breakdown today focused on Joe Brady getting our receivers isolated. Enjoy!

The fun stats keep piling up. Funny how that happens when your team is winning! I looked up how each of those teams did: 2006 Ravens 13-3 2002 Chargers 8-8 2008 Ravens 11-5 2006 Chargers 14-2 2000 Saints 10-6 Pretty nice company! Looks like having a smothering defense at the start of the season makes full season success much more probable.

Been chatting with a few folks on Twitter tonight about this topic and I was asked about our success rate in converting 3rd downs on running plays versus passing. Good question, and something I'd been meaning to track. Here's how it stands after weeks 1 & 2: Passing 9-22 41% Rushing 3-8 38% Then I was asked about our success on running on 3rd/4th & Short RUSHING plays, given that we all know the struggles we've faced on the goal line to get 1-2 yards to punch it into the end zone. Here are all the 3rd/4th and short rushing plays so far: So from Opponents 6 or closer we're 0/3 so far on rushing plays. On passing plays from the 6 or closer, we're 1/3 (DJ's touchdown).

This has got to be terrifying for any opposing QB to watch.... Here are all the Panthers' sacks in week 1 & week 2. Relentless!

I definitely was grumbling about Shaq, and to some extent about Donte too. Convinced we were way too thin at linebacker. Very much underwhelmed by the trade for Darnold. So.... so far, I'm being proven wrong on all 3 points, and I hope the team continues to blow away all my doubts.

MY WORD! Here is a compilation of all Panthers sacks so far. Got to be terrifying for any opposing QB to watch this!

More from Cody Alexander:

Folks on Twitter are discovering Carolina's Defense and the number of fun clips is multiplying, Here's another great one! (Appreciate John posting so many of these!)

Just calculated the average distance of opponents 3rd/4th down attempts. Basically for both teams it was 3rd & 8 Jets: 7.8 yards to go Saints 8.3 yards to go For Panthers, by contrast, our offense has done a much better job of keeping the 3rd downs maneageable. Average yards to go on 3rd/4th downs: versus Jets 4.6 yard versus Saints 5.6 yards

Here's the overview of opponents' performance in converting 3rd & 4th downs. (Note: The "made" attempts at right include any attempts where 1st downs were granted because of CAR penalties. The "failed" numbers at the right include several 3rd / 4th attempts nullified by opponents' penalties. So the numbers on the right don't match the official game book stats where the penalties are ruled no play.) And here is the running total for Weeks 1 & 2: Some observations: 1) Panthers are doing a great job in keeping defenses of 3rd/4th and long. Basically 60% of all conversion attempts are in the 3rd & long category (I'll have exact yard averages per game later... the Saints had a number of WAY long attempts well beyond 3rd & long). By contrast, only 40% of Panthers 3rd down attempts so far have been 3rd & long. So well done! 2) I love that we're not just stopping 3rd & longs, but also stuffing opponents in 2/3 of all their short yardage attempts. (By contrast Panthers are making close to 50% of their short 3rd down attempts). And allowing 0 conversions on middle distance attempts. So very nice! 3) We may worry about Panthers' Defense having let up in the 2nd half of games (especially versus the Jets), but it hasn't shown up in the 3rd down conversion stats. Panthers are equally successful in stopping conversions in both halves, for the most part.

Here's the detail from the game log for the Saints game. We kept them in 3rd and VERY long on many plays, of which they converted 2. But the few times they got short or intermediate 3rd or 4th down situations we stuffed them every single time (or forced penalties that forced them to punt). Really eye opening to look at this in detail. Note, I've included 3rd & 4th down penalty plays that technically don't count as plays, but basically by forcing false starts and delays of game which moved the Saints back further..., in my book, they count as Panthers stops on 3rd/4th down, official or not.

I agree.... Maybe the author was suggesting that we were a trap game for the Saints following their win vs. Green Bay? They were overlooking the danger we posed?

And here's a clip from ESPN NFL Live breaking down our defense:

No more clips from Baldy to post right now, but today John Ellis - the Huddle's own @ellis - posted a cool clip on Twitter that, like Baldy, really brings home the fact this this has been a whole of defense effort. The team is really playing together in a concerted effort and it's working so beautifully.

There's a full thread on this article by Football Outsiders about Panthers being ranked 1st in DVOA (for the first time ever). But here's the link to the full article.

Good comment in a thread on Sam Darnold stats. Thought it would be worth copying here:

Here's an early sneak peak at the game log data for the Jets on 3rd & 4th downs. (I still have to get the actual numbers in my spreadsheet...) But what I see at a glance is that Panthers D did a very nice job in keeping the Jets in 3rd and long most drives throughout the game, and also had some very nice stops on 3rd & short. [Apologies that I don't have data from last season to compare in terms of how we did on 3rd & long vs. 3rd & short (both in what situations we faced how often and the success rate in preventing the 1st down)] I love being able to see the plethora of names too in terms of Panthers defenders making the stop. It really is a "whole of defense" effort, not just one or two guys doing all the tackling. More summary & analysis after dinner along with Saints game data too...

Yesterday I posted a stat tracking thread where I hope to keep track of how Panthers are doing throughout the season on 3rd down conversions. https://www.carolinahuddle.com/topic/171955-stat-tracking-panthers-2021-3rd-4th-down-conversions/ Today I am digging more into Panthers defense - how did we do in stopping our opponents on 3rd & 4th down. As we know all too well, not being able to get off the field on 3rd down was a HUGE weakness for the team last year. We were 31st in the league, allowing teams to convert on 49.25% of 3rd downs. OUCH. https://www.teamrankings.com/nfl/stat/opponent-third-down-conversion-pct?date=2021-02-08 Well right now, Panthers are pretty much doing a "Worst to First" deal.... we're currently LEADING the league through 2 games in terms of opponents' 3rd down conversions, with an average of only 25% allowed. https://www.teamrankings.com/nfl/stat/opponent-third-down-conversion-pct?date=2021-09-23 It's SO great to see. I'm starting to dig more deeply into the game logs from Jets & Saints games and will have some more analysis later tonight after dinner.

Scott Fowler had an interesting article on this exact comparison. https://www.charlotteobserver.com/sports/spt-columns-blogs/scott-fowler/article254365068.html

CMC (duh) Brian Burns DJ Moore (I hope! He deserves the recognition if he keeps playing as he has been). Haason Reddick Jury is still out on the secondary. They're playing great, but haven't been really tested too much. But could see Donte getting some love. He looks like a different player! Oh and hopefully Moton too.... (but if he's part of a poor O-line, might not get the love he deserves).

It will be interesting to see how he plays on the road. Not sure what to expect in terms of crowd noise in Houston, but in the preseason Panthers didn't handle it well in Indy. Hopefully our coaching staff is good with the communication, and Sam too. And hopefully they're working on silent counts in practice this week!

Here's a fun one re: Brian Burns time from snap to sack. 3.04 seconds. 2nd fastest time clocked by a DL in the league this past week.

Some Jaycee Horn stats: Current Passer Rating 50.4 (2nd best among rookie CBs) via PFF https://twitter.com/PFF/status/1440360295059247105?s=20 And also here: