KB_fan

Perfectly rational comment. But I do confess I find Sterling Shepard a REALLY enticing prospect and think he could bring something special to our offense. I'd be excited if we draft him. So, I could see him as a pick - but more likely in round 2. Pretty sure we'll go DE/DT or slim possibility of OT in round 1 (most mock drafts don't usually have an OT in the mix as BPA at our pick in the 1st). If the DEs/DTs & OTs with round 1 grades on our board are gone, then that opens the door for a S, a WR, or possibly a CB (Alexander or Jackson?), or either Derrick Henry or Hunter.

In doing my 2015 vs 2016 strength of schedule comparison which I posted above on Sunday, I noticed again just how incredibly fortunate we were to have 3 of our 4 "murderers row" games at home last season. Thankfully this year we don't have a long stretch of back-to-back games against winning teams as we did in 2015. But I'm glad that three of our six games against playoff teams are at home. That should help us against the Vikes, the Chiefs and the Cardinals. We've got quite an incredible home win streak going. BoA is becoming a formidable place for our opponents to come! Seattle we've proven now we can beat at Century Link - though it won't be easy. Denver will be tough to beat at Mile High, but with their QB mess and more player turnover than we've had, hopefully they will not be in top form in week 1. And well Washington.... yeah they're much better at home than away, typically, but we shall see if they can continue to contend or whether last season was a fluke.

good point. After all it was AZ breathing down our necks this season, causing it to go down to week 17 to lock up the #1 seed.

I thought it would be interesting to compare strength of schedule and Panthers historical win % against our opponents for both the 2015 and 2016 seasons: Here's 2015: Here's 2016: Based on our opponents' prior season records, our overall strength of schedule is harder in 2016 than 2015: .512 vs .434 In 2015 we played 4 playoff teams. In 2016 we play 6. Here's more comparisons: Perhaps the greatest difference is that we play significantly fewer teams coming off really terrible seasons. In 2015 we played 5 teams with 4 wins or fewer the prior season (incl Tampa twice). In 2016 we play only 1 such team (San Diego). Yet, even though our strength of schedule is harder, we do go into the 2016 season with a higher historical win % and a higher recent win % (since 2011) against these teams. Looking at the breakdown, I'm a bit more concerned with the Vikings and KC games than I was. I wasn't aware of our historical and recent losing records against both teams. Also, I hadn't realized (or more likely I'd just forgotten / blocked it out of my mind) that we've never beaten the Broncos under Cam & Ron... So... there are some challenges ahead. The toughest games look to be At Denver Vikings Kansas City At New Orleans (short week, coming at end of intense stretch) At Seattle Atlanta (based on schedule as well as our toughest division rivalry) Arizona is actually the opponent we face who had the best regular season record last year, but I'm less concerned about that game since we've beaten AZ convincingly twice in the 2014 and 2015 playoffs, and since we'll be coming off our bye. It encourages me greatly to look back at 2015's strength of schedule and historical record table because it reminds me of the challenge we faced in winning against some teams who had owned us for awhile: Seattle, Dallas, Green Bay ... heck we'd even struggled previously against Tennessee. We beat them all. Let's look forward to getting our revenge against Denver and Atlanta, and wins against Minn, KC, continuing our recent dominance of TB and New Orleans, and continuing our newfound success against Seattle.... We got this Panthers fans!

Just had a somewhat random schedule-related thought / question pop into my mind. Has CLT ever hosted a Christmas Eve game? If so, what's the attendance like? I would think that with holiday travel, family gatherings, church commitments, etc., Christmas Eve could be low attendance? Probably helps attendance that it's against a hated division rival - Atlanta. But if we're not playing for anything much at this point (i.e. if we have the division / playoff spot / seed already locked up) I worry that it could be a less-than-capacity crowd. Any reason to be concerned?

I agree with this. I think that having 3 division games back to back to back that early in the season is tough. I could see a L at the Superdome. We were pretty fortunate to beat the Saints twice last year. Yes I know we're the better team by far, but divisional games are a different creature. I also don't like the Christmas Eve game against Atlanta on Saturday after MNF. Christmas week, bad weather & bowl games messed up our practice routines prior to our loss at Atlanta last year and I fear this year could be something similar. (...though presumably Cam will not be dealing with a brand new baby this year!) Not saying I really think we lose both of these games, just that they're danger spots I see. Right now I have our floor as about 12-4, but could easily see 14-2 or hopefully better. I would love to see us make another run at undefeated, but while we're bringing back almost the whole team, I'm just not sure it's realistic to expect another season like last year. We all know that games can be swung on one or two plays... (witness the Super Bowl, if that call hadn't gone against Cotch early in the game... it could have been a very different game.) Last year we had so many KEY plays go our way (J-No end zone interception against NO; the blown coverage by Seattle that led to the stunning TD to win over Seattle; TD's onsides kick catch against Seattle in the playoffs, TD's interception of Rodgers. Luke's interception in overtime against the Colts...) These were plays that saved games we could have quite easily lost. Miss one or two of those plays and we could have been 14-2 or 13-3. But hey, great teams make great plays when it matters. I expect we'll do the same in 2016 and we'll win a lot of exciting games. We play some good teams (6 playoff teams), we'll be getting a lot of primetime airtime... Should be a GREAT season!

A couple of thoughts. We were pretty fortunate to get out of both Saints games last year with wins. Both were nailbiters. I have a hunch the Saints could come out for blood this year and beat us in the dome even though on paper it should never happen. But coming at the end of a three game stretch against division opponents, and after a MNF game, it has my attention as a game that could be particularly tough for us. I also don't like our having to play Atlanta during Christmas week on Saturday after a MNF game. Even though it's at home, that too could be trouble if we're worn down / are dealing with injuries at that point in the season. Last season's loss at Atlanta reminded me NEVER to count out a divisional rival. (Well... at least not the Falcons or Saints. We'll see if the Bucs begin to compete harder against us and become a tougher opponent...) Our division has the greatest parity in the league over the past 20 years, IIRC. We SHOULD dominate the South again, but can't get complacent. And yeah, facing Seattle in prime time as the 2nd of two West Coast road games..., and with them primed for revenge. Not one to treat lightly. I'm thinking 13-3 or 14-2 could be realistic / possible, but of course, there's a long way to go with the draft and training camp still ahead... it's not time to make real predictions yet. Let's see who we draft, how the roster shapes up, How KB looks coming back. How CJ is playing and if Ealy continues to show his Super Bowl form. Who wins the RT competition. How Luke recovers from his shoulder surgery. What happens with Josh & his contract and how the team reacts... I don't see any of the above as serious roadblocks, but they're factors to keep in mind as we look at the season ahead.

Not sure how well this will work to paste here - table may be too wide. But here's a closer look at the details of 21 mock drafts I've analyzed re: the consensus top 10 WRs. Looking at the far right, you can see I've just started to look at / include mocks by major analysts at SI and NFL.com. They're a lot more bullish on players such as Will Fuller & Sterling Shepard than the boards at fanspeak. So I want to dig a bit more and see what some of the other media analysts are saying about WRs - even if they're only doing mocks for the 1st round or early rounds.

Exactly. The imbalance between offensive and defensive talent at the top of the draft makes it very interesting and hard to predict. Will teams go for value or need? How will a run on a given position affect things...? It makes predicting a player like Shepard or Hunter Henry tricky. Based on their consensus ranking & grades, it's not unreasonable to think they could fall to us in round 2. But based on the lack of much other top talent at TE or WR, I could see them going earlier than many of the mocks predict.

I've had a chance to make some progress on a WR potential draft availability analysis. Here's what it looks like so far based on about 18-20 mock drafts at fanspeak using all of the different boards. I'm hoping to also look at and add in results from mock drafts by various analysts in the next few days instead of just relying on the fanspeak drafts. I'll include more details and comments over in the NFL draft board in the next few days. Doctson and Thomas could be available to us at the end of round 1. Shepard shows up as being always available in round 1, and available to us at our pick in the 2nd 40% of the time, but that number has been trending down in the most recent drafts and on the boards that have been updated most recently. Now down to more like 30% in the 2nd. So, not sure we could count on getting him without trading up. Cooper is getting snagged above our pick in round 3 about half the time, but sometimes falling into round 4. The picks on Listenbee are pretty varied. Looks like he should usually be there when we pick in round 4, and almost 50% of the time when we pick in round 5. (Players names in bold and a bold rectangle around the percentage availability meant that the player was BPA on the board when Panthers picked in a given mock, and so I selected him.)

SO TRUE. The first round is STACKED with Dline talent. (13 or 14 of the top 33 prospects (acc. to NFL.com grades) are Dline guys if I recall correctly). I've started doing some of the mock drafts to focus on WR availability. In almost half the mocks so far only 2 WRs are picked in the 1st (usually Treadwell & Coleman), occasionally only 1. Never more than 3 so far (Treadwell, Doctson, Coleman). If teams do feast on that defensive line depth, it could open up the door for a surprise player to fall. I've been seeing CB Hargreaves available in some mocks. I've seen Treadwell fall to us as well, and every now and again Ezekiel Elliott shows up as being available at our pick...

Just for fun, here are the players with first round rankings / grades at NFL.com, color-coded by position. Green is Dline. There's A LOT of green! (14 of the 33 top prospects...)

Agree. I like both Henrys, and in a lot of the mocks I've been doing, a run on defensive players has been leaving offensive guys as BPA in both rounds 1 & 2. It's hard for me to know whether that's just due to inflexible computer algorithms though which may be giving higher position values / priorities to DEs, DTs, OTs, than TEs or RBs and which can't take into account the human factor that a certain player possesses unique skills or talent or is a particularly good fit for a team. Hunter Henry lands as BPA at our pick #62 in round 2 in a huge % of the drafts I'm doing. But I have trouble believing that would really happen since the TE talent is so shallow in this class. A team that really needs a TE may grab Henry early, even if they wouldn't normally take a TE in round 1 because they know there's not much depth behind him, whereas there is a LOT of depth at some of the positions often prioritized in round 1, such as DE / OLB, DT and OT.... Given the ABUNDANCE of Dline guys with first round grades, it does make me think it will be hard for Gman to pass up one of them...

The Panthers' Dates for mini-camp, etc. have now been posted: Players Report: April 25; OTA Offseason Workouts: May 24-26, May 31, June 1-2, June 6-9; Mandatory Minicamp: June 14-16 This doesn't include rookie-specific events. http://www.nfl.com/news/story/0ap3000000649568/article/nfl-announces-offseason-workout-program-dates? Due to our Super Bowl run, the Panthers are reporting a week later than other teams. Some teams (with new head coaches) report tomorrow, April 4.

I've just noticed an intriguing possibility. The TRIPLE HENRY option: Derrick Henry RB - round 1 Hunter Henry TE - round 2 Willie Henry DT - round 3 That would be fun, but confusing as hell....! I just took two of the Henrys in my latest mock draft using the composite board at Fanspeak. It was a nice 5 round draft: 30: DE KEVIN DODD, CLEMSON 62: TE HUNTER HENRY, ARKANSAS 94: DT WILLIE HENRY, MICHIGAN 130: RB CJ PROSISE, NOTRE DAME 169: P DREW KASER, TEXAS A&M (The punter was pretty much BPA on the board based on NFL.com draft grades at our pick in round 5..., and it fit a need, so why not.) Derrick Henry went at #26 to the Seahawks in this mock. Even if Derrick Henry had been on the board, I think I still would have taken Dodd instead... Hunter Henry is going in wildly differing spots depending on the big board one uses. In some mocks he's going mid 1st round, in many other mocks he still falls to us in round 2... will be interesting to see if teams are willing to draft a TE in round 1. Certainly the success of Gronk & Olsen has to show the value of a star TE, for any teams caring to pay attention. That draft plus a round 7 gem found by G'man would not upset me at all. But of course Gettleman has forgotten more football in the past week than I'm likely to know in a lifetime...., so while I'm having fun with mocks, I don't really claim to know what I'm talking about, and I trust Gettleman pretty completely.

Here are the top 60 players on the Composite Big Board at Fanspeak: 1 OT LAREMY TUNSIL - OLE MISS 2 CB JALEN RAMSEY - FSU 3 OLB MYLES JACK - UCLA 4 QB JARED GOFF - CALIFORNIA 5 DE JOEY BOSA - OHIO STATE 6 DE DEFOREST BUCKNER - OREGON 7 RB EZEKIEL ELLIOTT - OHIO STATE 8 CB VERNON HARGREAVES III - FLORIDA 9 QB CARSON WENTZ - NORTH DAKOTA STATE 10 OT RONNIE STANLEY - NOTRE DAME 11 ILB DARRON LEE - OHIO STATE 12 WR LAQUON TREADWELL - OLE MISS 13 DE NOAH SPENCE - EASTERN KENTUCKY 14 DT SHELDON RANKINS - LOUISVILLE 15 DE SHAQ LAWSON - CLEMSON 16 CB MACKENSIE ALEXANDER - CLEMSON 17 DT A'SHAWN ROBINSON - ALABAMA 18 OT TAYLOR DECKER - OHIO STATE 19 DT ANDREW BILLINGS - BAYLOR 20 OLB LEONARD FLOYD - GEORGIA 21 OT JACK CONKLIN - MICHIGAN STATE 22 DT JARRAN REED - ALABAMA 23 ILB REGGIE RAGLAND - ALABAMA 24 DE EMMANUEL OGBAH - OKLAHOMA STATE 25 WR COREY COLEMAN - BAYLOR 26 DE KEVIN DODD - CLEMSON 27 WR MICHAEL THOMAS - OHIO STATE 28 CB WILLIAM JACKSON III - HOUSTON 29 CB ELI APPLE - OHIO STATE 30 OT GERMAIN IFEDI - TEXAS A&M 31 S KEANU NEAL - FLORIDA 32 QB PAXTON LYNCH - MEMPHIS 33 G CODY WHITEHAIR - KANSAS STATE 34 WR JOSH DOCTSON - TCU 35 S KARL JOSEPH - WEST VIRGINIA 36 RB KENNETH DIXON - LOUISIANA TECH 37 QB CONNOR COOK - MICHIGAN STATE 38 OLB JAYLON SMITH - NOTRE DAME 39 DT VERNON BUTLER - LOUISIANA TECH 40 DT JONATHAN BULLARD - FLORIDA 41 WR WILL FULLER - NOTRE DAME 42 OLB SU'A CRAVENS - USC 43 WR STERLING SHEPARD - OKLAHOMA 44 DT KENNY CLARK - UCLA 45 WR TYLER BOYD - PITT 46 TE HUNTER HENRY - ARKANSAS 47 S DARIAN THOMPSON - BOISE STATE 48 DT CHRIS JONES - MISS. STATE 49 C RYAN KELLY - ALABAMA 50 RB DERRICK HENRY - ALABAMA 51 OT JASON SPRIGGS - INDIANA 52 S TJ GREEN - CLEMSON 53 CB XAVIEN HOWARD - BAYLOR 54 DT MALIEK COLLINS - NEBRASKA 55 CB HARLAN MILLER - SE LOUISIANA 56 DT ROBERT NKEMDICHE - OLE MISS 57 CB KENDALL FULLER - VIRGINIA TECH 58 G CHRISTIAN WESTERMAN - ARIZONA STATE 59 DE KAMALEI CORREA - BOISE STATE 60 WR BRAXTON MILLER - OHIO STATE According to this board, and the mock draft I posted above, the "reaches" by other teams which allowed a slew of good players to be available to us at #30 included: G Cody Whitehair, ranked at #33, picked at #22 by the Texans DT Kenny Clark, ranked at #44, picked at #23 by the Vikings DT Vernon Butler, ranked at #39, picked at #25 by the Steelers OT Jason Spriggs, ranked at #51, picked at #27 by Green Bay QB Connor Cook, ranked at #37, picked at #28 by the Chiefs QB Paxton Lynch, ranked at #32, picked at #29 by the Cardinals With the exception of Cook, it's not too surprising to see those names in the first round. It does suggest that there is fairly equal quality and depth from about #16 - #40, so we should be getting a decent player late in round 1. Also in this draft, it was interesting to see how quickly CBs flew off the board: #2 ranked Ramsey was picked at #5 (Jags) #16 ranked Alexander was picked at #9 (Bucs) #28 ranked Jackson III was picked at #12 (Saints) #29 ranked Apple was picked at #15 (Rams)

By contrast, these are the ten highest-ranked players for our pick at #30 when I used fanspeak's draft board. Much less exciting a choice.... I'm not a fan of Alexander, Washington or Nkemdiche in round 1. Would go with Clark, I guess... 19 CB MACKENSIE ALEXANDER - CLEMSON 25 DT ADOLPHUS WASHINGTON - OHIO STATE 26 DT KENNY CLARK - UCLA 30 CB WILLIAM JACKSON III - HOUSTON 31 DT ROBERT NKEMDICHE - OLE MISS 33 QB PAXTON LYNCH - MEMPHIS 34 WR COREY COLEMAN - BAYLOR 36 DT AUSTIN JOHNSON - PENN STATE 37 WR JOSH DOCTSON - TCU 39 CB KENDALL FULLER - VIRGINIA TECH

Was just checking out the composite Big Board at Fanspeak today. They have a lot of excellent players falling to us in Round 1. Here are the 10 highest-ranked players on the board in the mock I just did. Wouldn't it be incredible to have the choice of Reed, Ogbah, Coleman, Dodd, Ifedi, Neal, Doctson?! Some good players in that bunch. Hard to believe some of these players will be there at #30. 22 DT JARRAN REED - ALABAMA 23 ILB REGGIE RAGLAND - ALABAMA 24 DE EMMANUEL OGBAH - OKLAHOMA STATE 25 WR COREY COLEMAN - BAYLOR 26 DE KEVIN DODD - CLEMSON 27 WR MICHAEL THOMAS - OHIO STATE 30 OT GERMAIN IFEDI - TEXAS A&M 31 S KEANU NEAL - FLORIDA 34 WR JOSH DOCTSON - TCU 35 S KARL JOSEPH - WEST VIRGINIA Here's how this first round Mock shook out (Mocking the Panthers I picked Jarran Reed as "BPA") ALL PICKS 1: R1P1 DE JOEY BOSA TENNESSEE TITANS 2: R1P2 QB JARED GOFF CLEVELAND BROWNS 3: R1P3 OT LAREMY TUNSIL SAN DIEGO CHARGERS 4: R1P4 QB CARSON WENTZ DALLAS COWBOYS 5: R1P5 CB JALEN RAMSEY JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS 6: R1P6 OT RONNIE STANLEY BALTIMORE RAVENS 7: R1P7 OLB MYLES JACK SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS 8: R1P8 DE DEFOREST BUCKNER PHILADELPHIA EAGLES 9: R1P9 CB MACKENSIE ALEXANDER TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS 10: R1P10 RB EZEKIEL ELLIOTT NEW YORK GIANTS 11: R1P11 DE SHAQ LAWSON CHICAGO BEARS 12: R1P12 CB WILLIAM JACKSON III NEW ORLEANS SAINTS 13: R1P13 DT A'SHAWN ROBINSON MIAMI DOLPHINS 14: R1P14 ILB DARRON LEE OAKLAND RAIDERS 15: R1P15 CB ELI APPLE LA RAMS 16: R1P16 WR LAQUON TREADWELL DETROIT LIONS 17: R1P17 DT ANDREW BILLINGS ATLANTA FALCONS 18: R1P18 OT TAYLOR DECKER INDIANAPOLIS COLTS 19: R1P19 DT SHELDON RANKINS BUFFALO BILLS 20: R1P20 OLB LEONARD FLOYD NEW YORK JETS 21: R1P21 CB VERNON HARGREAVES III WASHINGTON REDSKINS 22: R1P22 G CODY WHITEHAIR HOUSTON TEXANS 23: R1P23 DT KENNY CLARK MINNESOTA VIKINGS 24: R1P24 DE NOAH SPENCE CINCINNATI BENGALS 25: R1P25 DT VERNON BUTLER PITTSBURGH STEELERS 26: R1P26 OT JACK CONKLIN SEATTLE SEAHAWKS 27: R1P27 OT JASON SPRIGGS GREEN BAY PACKERS 28: R1P28 QB CONNOR COOK KANSAS CITY CHIEFS 29: R1P29 QB PAXTON LYNCH ARIZONA CARDINALS 30: R1P30 DT JARRAN REED CAROLINA PANTHERS 31: R1P31 DE KEVIN DODD DENVER BRONCOS

Was looking at some mock drafts this a.m. In 4 drafts posted at NFL.com Dodd is all over the place. http://www.nfl.com/draft/2016/mock-drafts #9, #17, #27 and us at #30

As one who doesn't follow college football closely, I really enjoy this type of thread. It's helpful to get an idea of some of the prospects who could fit well with the Panthers, and thus at least have the names of several to follow amidst the sea of hundreds of potential draftees.

For those interested, an article at NFL.com estimates the franchise figures for various positions: http://www.nfl.com/news/story/0ap3000000636218/article/estimated-2016-franchise-tag-figures

Yesterday I asked "What's a "transition player"" Today I may have found at least a partial answer in an article at NFL.com on players who might be tagged this year: http://www.nfl.com/news/story/0ap3000000635791/article/franchise-tag-primer-miller-cousins-top-candidates At least my knowledge has increased a little bit. I'm still not quite sure I understand who the different types of tags apply to. I assume we'd tag Josh with an exclusive franchise tag if we were to tag him?

I have a question. I found, and am working my way through reading a really comprehensive timeline of the beginning of the offseason. http://www.cbssports.com/nfl/eye-on-football/25475602/agents-take-18-key-nfl-offseason-dates-and-theyre-important There I read this: Can someone explain this to me? Does that mean Cam counts another 10 million against our cap this year if we pick up the option?!? Is the "10 million payment" NOW or in 2020? I'm assuming the Panthers WILL pick up this option. It's the first I've heard of this.... Likewise, on March 13th, there's this: NFL contracts make my head hurt.

Yeah, I missed it too. Was surprised it wasn't pinned....

As I looked carefully at the DE situation today, I was a bit surprised to see in black and white just how much turnover we could potentially have at that position. It has really rocketed up the list in my mind to be quite a critical area. Here's what I posted about the DE position in the "2016 Roster Building" thread a little while ago: DLine: DE is a REALLY BIG Need with 3-4 DEs questionable as to whether they'll return. Assume Ealy starts. We don't clearly have a starter on the other side. Alexander isn't eligible for anything until late November. He's not on the 2016 roster. Ron hinted Allen had an "announcement" about his status. He once talked about offseason surgery... maybe he'll retire. Horton was waived twice & demoted to the practice squad in the wake of his 4 week suspension, and unlike all but 1 other PS player, he has not been announced as receiving a futures contract. We may decide we need to keep him, but there's a definite question re: his status. Johnson: Obviously there's the huge problem of his contract. His play has also declined sharply. Will he accept being a rotational player and not a starter? 50-50 in my mind whether we keep him. Miley & Cox are both pretty unproven... showed some flashes in preseason, but almost certainly would not be ready to start yet. Webster is a total unknown, at least to me. With just Ealy, Addison and Delaire in the rotation (along with newly acquired players) we wouldn't have much strength against the run. That suggests we might keep CJ and/or Horton, but CJ's cap hit is monstrous and MUST come down, so he's still quite a question mark for me. Another veteran strong pass rusher to start opposite Ealy is my #1 priority in the offseason. We're NOT going to find a solid starting DE in the draft...