WUnderhill

I’d take a 1st for Cmc in a heartbeat but doubt we can get that much. I’d rather not trade Moore since I think he has more prime years left in the tank than CMC so I don’t see the value there. If they do manage to trade Cmc, then we are almost certainly going to be picking #1 or #2 and I think you have to use that opportunity on QB provided our scouts and GM think there is one worthy of that pick.

Yeah nobody is saying a QB wins without a team around him, good coaching, etc. The stat about #1 QBs having 3x more SBs is not misleading, it is exactly what it is. The only reason you think it is misleading is if you have a narrative that it challenges, in which case you’ll find ways to say it’s misleading and they don’t count because trades or some other bullshit. Of course you don’t consider the value of what the teams got in the trades either. I see you also changed the data set for no real reason. I went back 20 years and there wasn’t a #1 QB that won the SB for years from my starting point, I didn’t cherry pick some data set that best fit my narrative. Why not start in 2006 when the rule changes really started to favor QBs? Why not make it an even 25 years to include Elway? Not that it matters, you’d make an excuse to explain it away, like you even want to try to get Brad Johnson in there as “undrafted today”, lol like me including him as pick 200 something just isn’t good enough. So sick of talking with your crowd. You are constantly arguing in bad faith, from the basis of one or the other, either or, there’s never the basic assumption that we’re all Panthers fans and want a good TEAM with good coaches etc. PLUS a franchise QB. Constantly arguing on the basis of EXCEPTIONS like Tom Brady. Of course there are exceptions, of course you can strike gold outside of the first round, but that is not a good STRATEGY. Since we tanked (Yes, JR and John Fox 100% tanked that season) and drafted Cam Newton #1 (don’t see you complaining about that one) we’ve also drafted Will Grier and Matt Corral in the 3rd rd, brought in PJ Walker (undrafted, remember you CAN get lucky and win with undrafted QBs so he should be good enough right?), Teddy Bridgewater, Sam Darnold, Baker Mayfield, attempted to trade for Matthew Stafford and Deshaun Watson, DIDN’T trade up for Justin Herbert even though our GM really wanted him, etc. Where are we today? Maybe it’s time to be honest with where we’re at as a franchise. You never say what you think is going to be gained by winning 4-5 games as opposed to 1-3. Or do you think PJ Walker is about to take the team on a run through the toughest part of the schedule right after we fire our HC?

Nothing guarantees anything, here’s some actual data. # of super bowl winning QBs by pick in the past 20 years: #1 - 3 Super Bowl Winning QBs #10 - 1 #11 - 1 #18 - 1 #24 - 1 #32 - 1 #75 - 1 #88 - 1 #199 - 1 #227 - 1 The #1 pick has produced 3x more Super Bowl winning QBs than any other individual pick. Additionally, 3 other #1 overall picks, a #2 overall pick, and a #3 overall pick all played in Super Bowls over that same period and lost. 10 of the past 20 Super Bowls have featured at least one QB picked in the top 3 overall picks.

We’ve been responding to each other for a while so maybe things have gotten off track somewhere along the way. The original point you made that I responded to was “You don’t need a superstar QB to win” and I pointed out that a large majority of the past 20 or so SBs were won by “superstar” QBs. So basically saying, “yes you do need a superstar QB, and here’s proof”. Then your point was you don’t need to draft a superstar QB high in the draft, to which I countered that of those same 20 years of SBs, the #1 overall pick accounted for 3x as many Super Bowl winning QBs as any other pick (not counting # of Super Bowls PER QB because that is not the relevant stat). Then you said well they didn’t all play for their original team, that’s where it just started to feel like constantly moving the goal posts. I get that you’re saying you can trade for them down the line or whatever, I just don’t think it’s a good strategy. We tried to trade for Stafford, he didn’t want to come here, yes partially I think because our head coach vs LA head coach, etc. but also we have to recognize that even if all that were even, he probably would have still preferred LA based on endorsement opportunities, etc. Or Tom Brady would still choose TB because of favorable tax laws, etc. We tried to trade for Watson and got outbid. We’ve tried to go the route of trading for QBs the past few years and it’s not working out. Also, the cost of trading for those QBs is high and hamstrings the franchise. We have the opportunity right now to go for the #1 pick, and part of my original point was the value of getting a franchise QB on a 5 year rookie contract, which is a huge advantage over trading or signing FA QBs. Also, the first round control through 5 years is a huge advantage over drafting a QB in rounds 2-7. If after 3 years you have to sign the QB to a huge contract which limits what you can put around him right at the same time you should be starting to compete for SBs, that is a massive disadvantage.

I wish I knew to your first point. I absolutely acknowledge that there is some luck to sucking bad enough in the RIGHT year. I don’t know if this is the right year. And I don’t propose to lose every year, but we just fired our HC after 5 games and are 1-4 starting PJ Walker at QB, this year is lost. I DON’T want to watch another losing season next year, so the point is to accept where we are at right now and make the most of it. Short term pain, long term gain. The top 2 guys both certainly seem to have their question marks. That’s part of the reason I think they need to spend as much time and money this year as possible on scouting, and also as much time and money as possible on developing Matt Corral. If there isn’t a guy they feel is worth it, then maybe they can trade down and get more picks or future picks.

You are presenting it as if it is EITHER you get the #1 pick, OR you build a team/culture, etc. So you aren’t even arguing my point you are just arguing against some made up point that nobody is talking about. Nobody is saying we want the #1 pick and nothing else. I 100% agree I don’t want to draft a franchise QB and ruin him or fail to reach his potential because we put a shitty team and organization around him. So what are you even arguing? You’ve made up something in your head where you can’t get the number 1 pick and also do other things, I really don’t even know. I presented a scenario where we increase our draft capital, because that’s important for TEAM building. You consistently fail to acknowledge that one of my original points was you DON’T ask coaches and players to lose, and that we’re a bad team that needs to evaluate our roster and get players on film for our future coach(es). How do you think coaches coming in are going to evaluate say Brandon Smith heading into next years draft with no game film besides pre season and not having been with him in practice? How will they know for sure our level of need at that position? What about Cade Mays or Amare Barno? It’s just dumb in a failed non-playoff season to not get our young draft picks playing time. You build a winning culture by CONSISTENTLY winning. Do you think winning 4 or 5 games this season builds a winning culture that much more than winning 1-3 games? This is a serious question because that seems to be the argument you’re making. Run CMAC into the ground another year, don’t get trade value out of him, play only starters, in the name of winning 4-5 games. Do you really think that builds a winning culture? Or do you still think we’re a playoff team somehow, because I just don’t see it. And yes, it’s stupid to start bringing in which team the #1 pick played for in the context of the discussion that was being had. You of course conveniently fail to consider what the team who traded the #1 pick got in compensation in your analysis of the pick’s value to a franchise. It just introduces extra variables that have to be considered but doesn’t even really matter to the point that was being made previously.

You guys keep making up all this crap every time I come back here. Whether it’s “superstars” or top 10 or something, now they have to be playing for their original team. At what point do you stop moving the goal posts? It’s not the #1 pick vs the field, it’s the #1 pick vs each other individual pick. We don’t have the option to select every QB in the draft class and see which one works, we’re talking about ONE selection. So what is it, are you saying the #8 pick is the best pick to draft a QB? Is the second QB drafted in a class statistically better than the first most of the time? We’re talking about ONE pick, just one. Btw, one of my original points was to build the offensive line for now and the future.

That’s 3x more Super Bowl winning QBs from the #1 overall selection than any other individual selection. It’s just silly to argue that picking first doesn’t matter. Saying that other things matter too does not diminish the value of the #1 pick. The #1 pick is the only place the team controls it’s own destiny. Every other pick you are either hoping some other team messed up their evaluation, you messed up your evaluation, both, or just to get extra lucky.

It might be just to make the money work.

Hope we can get something good for Mccaffrey…I’d take a bag of Cheetos for Robbie.

I said in 2 years, which is at least how far away we probably are from competing, if not more. The point was to trade him now BEFORE he got to that point. I’m not dying on a hill that he is old

Not for RBs. I just went back like 5 years and looked at top 5 or so rushing leaders for each year, they’re all under 27 (the site I was looking at was giving current age not age at the time of the stat so I can’t be much more specific than that.)

So in 2 years he’ll be 28. Going on 30 maybe a slight exaggeration but not much.

Going back to 2002, so 20 yrs. (btw I just chose 20 years randomly as a round number and didn’t want to go back too far to before the rule changes geared towards QBs), I count 2-4 Super Bowls won by non-franchise QBs (depending how you want to call it), that’s 2002-3 Bucs and 2017-18 Eagles for sure, and then depending on how you want to look at it Joe Flacco in 2012-13 and Peyton Manning in 2015-16. The superstar QBs win all the others: the Mannings, Big Ben, Brady, Rodgers, Stafford, Brees, Mahomes. It’s pretty bad odds on winning without the superstar QB.

Holy crap I’d trade Mccaffrey for a 1st round pick yesterday! Y’all have lost it He’s going to be super valuable run into the ground in 2 years as a RB going on 30 in the NFL lol. His highest value is to a team ready to win now. We are not.

It’s weird you keep talking about this 3rd round pick as if that is the first thing I said. What I actually said was a 2nd round pick. The third round pick was an “at least”, which means “if the market is trash and that is the best we can get, I wouldn’t be thrilled, but definitely no less.” So do you think we can get a 1st round pick or something? Because what I said was my realistic hope was that we could get a second if we take on some salary. As I’m sure you know and have thought deeply about, most teams have kind of already spent their salary cap for this season so if we want trade partners we might have to consider that. Edit to add: I’m sure there are teams calling, but you have no idea what they’re offering. I’m sure there are plenty of teams that would be so willing to scratch our backs and take Mccaffrey off our hands for a 6th rounder

Too late if we spend the rest of the season feeding the stud and mess around and win a few games putting ourselves at pick 5 or something.

If I were a potential head coach, I’d find it much more attractive to have the #1 pick if I think there’s a QB there that’s worth it, than a star RB on his 7th year who has missed at least 23 games the past 3 seasons due to injury (could be more by end of this season who knows). I love Mccaffrey, but he’s the one piece I look at that has some trade value that I question what he’ll have left in the tank in 2-3 years.

Nice contribution. 3 short sentences = ramblings. I’m sure it felt like a lot coming from reading Dr. Seuss and watching Minecraft videos on YouTube.

Sounds like you guys have extremely realistic opinions of Mccaffrey’s value. I’d take a first while not taking on any salary, but thought I would present an actual realistic scenario. I’d love to hear your Madden trade proposals.

Keep trying I’m sure you’ll get it eventually. Reading is a skill worth developing.

The cupboards aren’t bare…yet. We aren’t 5 years away from competing…yet. This team is on a razors edge. Do it the right way and we can be competing in 2-3 years. Do it the wrong way and we’re going to be having this same conversation in 3 years. 1. Trade Mccaffrey. Offer to pay the rest of his salary this year and try to get a late 2nd rounder from a contender. At the very least a 3rd rounder. 2. Make sure Wilks knows we need to evaluate our WHOLE roster in game time situations. We need to give our next HC as much film to go off as possible for all of our players. It sucks Wilks has been dealt this shitty hand, but find some other way to evaluate him as a HC besides his W/L record this year. 3. Be VERY cautious with Baker and Darnold's injuries (and for that matter any other injuries). PJ can start as long as possible. 4. Hopefully with this approach and just being a bad team in the first place, we are bad enough to get the #1 draft pick, while also trying to win with the players we have on the field. I don't agree with asking coaches and players to try to lose, but there are ways to essentially tank without doing that and while also getting some productive things done this year in looking towards the future. 5. Have a coach specifically dedicated to Matt Corral and his development, rehab, etc. if you don't already. Time to reach into those pockets Tepper. Corral looked lost in the little we got to see of him, we need to know if he can do this pretty quickly next season. He should be getting fed from a fire hose mentally all season, and when he's ready physically you should have a juco team or something on payroll just to get him practice reps in a pro style offense. 6. Time to reach into those pockets even more, Tepper. Our scouting department should be the highest paid in the NFL this year. They need to be burning the candle at both ends during this crucial time, and we need to make sure we have the absolute best scouts we can possibly have right now, especially for QBs. Bring in special consultants if you have to. Heck, have Macadoo start looking at the QBs in next years draft if you value his opinion. It’s more important than what he is doing on Sundays. 7. Hire the right HC. It can be a defensive guy, but he sure as hell better be able to wow you with the caliber of OC and QB coach he is bringing with him, and you better be damn sure that he’ll keep that caliber of offensive mind on staff if those ones leave for HC gigs. 8. If we get the #1 overall and we’ve done our homework, use the opportunity to get our QB of the future on a team friendly contract for the next 5 years. This will be our best time to re-sign other young and productive players like Burns, Chinn, etc. This will be our best opportunity to become a consistently competitive team while we have a young stud QB on a rookie deal. Let him and Corral compete. Let Corral start the season next year. DO NOT spend #1 on a QB and put him out there until we have an OL that can consistently protect him AND he is good enough diagnosing blitzes and calling his protections at the LOS. 9. Draft OL until you think we don’t need any more OL, then draft more. Get the best center in next year’s draft to go with our young QBs. We should be able to get that at the top or end of the second round (with the pick we get for Mccaffrey in this hypothetical). 10. Win.

I haven’t been on the fire Fitterer bandwagon and am generally open to the idea of him getting to hire a head coach…but if he wants to hire Dan Quinn get him the fug outta here. I get you were together in Seattle, but come on man.

There was NO music in Charlotte before Tepper, ever All hail Tepper, Charlotte’s great savior.

Well of course it doesn’t guarantee success, absolutely nobody is saying it does.