AU-panther

that's my point exactly, if they only have a 50% chance of being successful wouldn't your chances be better by having 2 of them.

What are your opinions about Maye? I'm guessing you have watched him a little. The points of my post was hypothetical at best, do people really feel like QB 1 this year has that much better of a chance of being good than some combination of two QBS over the next two years? Would you take Young or AR and Maye? or even Levis and Maye? or Stroud and Williams? Is Young really that much better of a prospect? As fans and front offices tend to think in very binary terms about these QB prospects, we convince ourselves that whatever QB we like has a 100% chance of making it and whatever one we don't has a 0% chance of making it but history tells us we are usually wrong.

I agree the sure thing is the safest, but Levis was never considered a prospect on the level of Williams. Williams is looking like a Lawrence or Luck type of prospect.

I don't expect us to trade down, if you trade down and then the QB that goes 1st turns out to be great you get second guessed, and those are the type of moves that get you fired. If you stay put and take the person a lot of people think is great and if they don't turn out it just gets chalked up to bad luck. A lot of people on here when talking about trading down, say with Houston, really want their extra 1st round pick this year (#12), but I'm thinking the really aggressive play is next year's 1st. Both Indy and Houston were terrible this year, not just record but their point differential, I don't expect them to be much better, so there is a very good chance their 1st next year could be a top 2 pick. Also, next year's QB class, especially at the top, looks to be really good, namely Williams and Maye. Lets say Indy is open to trading up and giving us next year's 1st, would you prefer Young at 1 this year, or whatever QB falls to 4, maybe Stroud, Levis, or AR plus a really good chance at Williams or Maye next year? You are almost giving yourself 2 chances to find a QB, and let's be honest, any QB you draft is a gamble. The thought of AR this year and maybe Willimas or Maye next is pretty tempting, if AR looks like the real deal those picks are worth a fortune, if you are sure about AR you take a QB. Talk about swinging for the fences. Of course, this whole plan goes out the window if Indy wins 7 games and picks 6th. Also I don't if any GM has the nerve to try something like this, I don't know if I would, could be a quick way to lose your job.

If his size is limiting his ability to play QB at a high level but he played QB at a higher level than the other 3 guys in college what is their excuse? Im not 100% sold on him either but my concerns with his size relate to durability not his ability to play QB, those are two different things.

If they stay put at #1 it's probably pretty definitive at this point who they are taking, regardless of what they are saying. Now the part that might still be debatable, is what would it take to move off of that #1 pick.

but you will go with QBR which has absolutely no eye test component at all...

So what you are saying is as a fan you have no idea if a player is good or not because you don't know the play either?

Beaded in what? Exactly how is QBR better than pff grade? QB throws a terrible pass that bounces off of the defenders chest, WR catches the deflection, makes 4 defenders miss and scores a TD. QBR grades goes up for the QB. PFF grades goes down for the QB. I prefer that trash. QB throws a check down to a wide open RB that makes a spectacular 40 yard run for a TD or QB makes a perfect 40 yard pass to a WR while under pressure, which is more impressive? QBR views them the same, PFF does not. Which one sounds like trash now?

QBR is a stat based metric that doesn’t isolate the QBs play. https://www.pff.com/news/draft-2023-nfl-draft-profile-c-j-stroud-ohio-state

Being blitzed isn’t the same being pressured. His line could have picked up the blitz. Go look up his grade under pressure and how it compares to the other top QBs. With that being said, I’m not against stroud, just when using stats you need context.

but at 39 you are probably looking for someone to contribute this year and you just spent money on two guys to contribute this year. Add in the fact a lot of people consider this WR class weak, if we draft one, I expect it to be later. Here again, nothing is set in stone, just my opinion. Also if you are going to look at who is on contract at two years you just can't look at the WRs. How many 3-4 DEs on contract in two years? How many LBs on contract in two years? Not really loaded their either.

True, and that is something they might have took into account when trying to decide where to spend money in free agency. You could counter that argument and say the TE class is really deep so why did we spend in free agency, but to be honest with a potential rookie QB, I always thought we would look for experienced skill positions.

It's impossible to predict what a front office might do during the draft, but you can look at free agency and get a pretty good idea. Of our free agents we singed 4 with decent contracts that were either TEs or WRs: Thomas ($3.325m APY), Hurst ($7.25m), Chark ($5m), and Theilen ($8.33m). To put those contracts in perspective only 20 players have higher APY than Thomas, those are get on the field contracts. 2023 NFL Free Agents and Free Agency (overthecap.com) Like I said earlier, nothing is guaranteed, maybe some WR or TE with great value falls, but If I had to guess I'm thinking DE, LB, or CB at 39. From a lot of reports this is a very strong TE class, we might decide we can get good value later. By a lot of reports the WR class is rather thin, I could see us not drafting one at all, or taking more of a project guy later.

I really don't see a TE this early. Teams usually don't spend early picks on positions that they just addressed in Free agency. Same could be said about WRs. Although this a deep TE class so I wouldn't mind one later. I'm thinking more of an edge or 3-4 DE, possibly a CB, decent draft for those. Someone like: Adetomiwa Adebawore Draft and Combine Prospect Profile | NFL.com Emmanuel Forbes Draft and Combine Prospect Profile | NFL.com

but even then you are talking 6/11, which is only a little over 50% chance of people a homerun. Fact is finding a great QB isn't easy, no matter where you pick. Alse the chance of both Stroud and Young being great is rather slim. This is why I think it might be somewhat misguided to focus so much on Young's size. People are acting like both are automatically going to be great so just take the bigger QB. You have to do to an honest assessment of their chances of being really good. Do you want the QB that you think has the better chance of being good, but maybe a smaller chance of getting hurt occasionally or the guy you think has less of a chance of being good but maybe less of a chance of getting hurt? Now if you truly think Stroud has as good of a chance of getting a homerun then of course you take the bigger guy.

Young has some very good metrics, and he probably has the best tape of all 4 over an extended time, but one stat that does concern me a little bit is that completion percentage on the out routes. That deeper out route is one of those throws that separates NFL QBs from college QBs. At the pro level the difference between bad defenses and good defenses is a lot less than at the college level, if you can't successfully throw to a certain part of the field, you are making it a lot easier on the opposing defense. I'm not saying its going to keep him from being successful, just something to factor in, you can't just look at stats.

as opposed to those coaches who admit to wanting low character dumb players.

Thats pretty much how things ran while Rhule was here, but it just so happened those football people made bad decisions. People like to spin this narrative that he is some controlling owner who is making all of the personnel decisions but for the most part that really hasn't seem to be the case. This idea that he is like Snyder or Jones doesn't really have merit.

But arm is such a big part of it I hate even making that comparison even as a “lite” version. It would be like calling Levis Cam lite without the running ability.

agree. I can't guarantee we would have offered the same package to go to #2 as we did to go to #1 but I would guess it would have been close.

Down and distance often changes where players play. On obvious passing downs you might see Brown move to the middle and someone like YGM play end.

or you could look at it as if you if were drafting a QB to start early, for example Young or Stroud you would have gone cheaper as your backup.

He said three 1st round picks were never in play for teams within the top 5. Logic tells you that for those teams outside of the top 5 it would have took more draft capital or in our case a pretty good player.

It's a very common assessment of him. Most fans are limiting their opinion to what they saw during the game vs Georgia. Let's be honest, most people around here that is probably the only entire game they have watched of Strouds. Was the Georgia game an anomaly or a glimpse of what he can become.