AU-panther

Even if he is a baller that still doesn't make the pick the best one. Maybe the guy that goes after his is also a baller but at a more valuable position.

I agree. I think sometimes with drafting you are better off with just "hard" rules. Chasing exceptions tend to get teams in trouble.

I don't' think it is enough. I think other teams can offer more. Also it doesn't give them a QB, which I would think would sweeten a deal more. What if the Jets would offer their 1st this year and the next two years. I could see the Jets willing to do that and its a lot better deal than ours. The Jets 1st this year is basically equal to three 1st from us. Honestly it would take more than that for us to trade up to #2. People need to realize that our #8 pick doesn't hold anywhere close to the same value as the Jets #2 or Dolphins #3. Not only do we have to make an offer that the Texan's like it has to be better than other teams. I'm thinking a starting point would be three 1st, two seconds, and a really good player on a good contract so either Brown or Burns. I'm not sure CMC even gets it done because some GMs aren't fans of RBs on big contracts regardless of who the RB is.

#8 pick is about $3.7m a year. 10th highest paid ILB, $11.8m 10th highest paid edge, $17m Do you want to replace a $11.8m FA or a $17m FA for $3.7m? Replacing the edge saves you about 50% more cap space. This doesn't even factor in the idea that the edge rusher is more valuable to adding wins to your team than the MLB, that's an entirely different discussion, this is just purely looking at replacement cost in free agency. On a side note, 10th RB is about $8m. Being right 1/2 on edge rusher is almost equal to being right 2/2 if you are drafting a LB and RB. If you draft high value positions you don't have to be right as often, you can use your money saved to fill spots in free agency. After the 1st round the chances of actually finding an above average player are so small you ignore this and start drafting guys you think can actually work out. Also in the first round the really early picks are paid so much more that you really need to consider positional value. For example the 3rd pick is almost $6m a year, if you draft a RB he is already almost a top 10 paid player at his position. You have basically lost the one huge advantage of draft picks, cheap value.

so....he invokes his no trade clause and he is still on the team he doesn't want to be on. I agree he does have some power but its not absolute like some people around here thing, especially in the short term. The Texans can easily do nothing and it really doesn't hurt them. so if he sits out they are fuged? Why? If they let him go for nothing they are also fuged. They were terrible with him last year, if they trade him they are probably going to still be terrible for the short term. Its not like they were expecting to win the Super Bowl this year. I don't think it hurts the Texan's reputation to wait at all. Their reputation is all ready garbage. If anything if they let him go for nothing they will just be made fun of more. If anything Watson is the one that might start to take a reputation hit, once the season rolls around and his teammates are out there playing and he is refusing to play some fans and media will start to turn on Watson. He could sit out all year and teams would still trade for him next offseason. Speaking of the draft there is a chance they don't trade him until the draft happens, if you trade before yo don't know how the picks are going to go. They might love Fields, and not Wilson, so they might not be willing to trade with Miami until they know Fields will be available at that pick. Same with Atlanta. There is a very good chance this could turn into a draft night trade. If they like Garoppolo then doing something before the draft make more sense, trading with the Jets would be more likely before the draft, because everyone pretty much agrees who is going first. A lot of people like to act like QB2 and QB3 are interchangeable but in reality a lot of teams will probably convince themselves they like one of them a lot more than the other.

The team does have some leverage, they don't' have to do anything. What if the Jets and 49ers make offers. Watson says he will go to the 49ers and then the Texans say no, we will trade you to the Jets or not at all. What does he do then?

I love the way fans become prisoners of the moment. White had a good game, but go make a list of the top off-ball LBs for the entire season and look to see where they were drafted and how much they make. Off-ball LBs are one of the most devalued spots in the draft and free agency, we can upgrade the position without spending a high draft pick on it.

Fans sometimes underestimate how much relationships play into these things. The Garappole angle I find interesting, I know the GM at the Texans has a history with him, but it also seems like the 49ers are looking to move on from him. Do you really want to stake your franchise to him? If I'm the Texans I'm going to take my time and evaluate the QBs coming out in the draft (Lance, Fields, and Wilson) and once I decide which ones of those I like that will help me determine which trade packages look the most appealing. If I only like one of them then the Jets look a lot more appealing than anyone else.

I keep thinking any deal that might appeal to the Texans has to include a potential QB, makes it a lot easier to sell to your fans. Also as you said in another post owners have egos, getting a QB might help swallow your pride a little. Both Miami and the Jets can also offer potential QBs, either Tua or guys drafted this year. People also need to realize that not all 1st round picks are created equal. In reality the Jest 1st is probably worth 3 of your first. Think about what it would take for us to move up to the 2nd pick. If the Texans are really high on 2 QBs in the draft than the Jets pick is worth exponentially more than ours. If they are really high on 3 QBs than Miami's pick is worth exponentially more than ours. The Jets offering 3 first round picks is the same as us offering 5 1st round picks. We don't have a QB (and don't say teddy) to offer in any package, maybe on draft night if Lance falls to us and they are really high on Lance. Speaking of draft night, what about Atlanta, what if Texans really like Fields and he is there for Atlanta. Could Atlanta package that pick along with others and trade for Watson, and then trade Ryan to someone else? I could see us making a offer but at the end of the day we can't offer a guaranteed QB. We can offer draft picks, we can offer some really good young players, CMC, Burns, Brown, Chinn, some of which are still on rookie contracts which is a huge selling point, but we can't offer a QB. If Im the Texans I'm trying my best to come out of this with a potential franchise QB.

I'm not saying he will or won't, I think he has a very good chance to force his way out. I just don't agree that he is like a free agent, he isn't going to get to pick his destination regardless of what compensation the other team offers. If the Texans say no to the 49ers but yes to the Jets, what does Watson do then?

I agree that Watson has some leverage with the no trade clause, but you have to remember the Texans also have a no trade clause. They don't have to do a thing. His cap hit isn't huge this year and honestly if we refuses to play then they can recoup some of that money. Its no different than when a player decides to retire, a team can go after some of the signing bonus that was paid to them. The Texan's image is already bad, they really don't have anything to lose. If anything Watson's PR might start to look worse once the season starts and his teammates are out there playing and he is at home. Lets say the Panthers make a good offer and the Jets make a great offer. Watson wants to go to the Panthers but the team says we will only OK a trade to the Jets or you can stay here. If Watson really wants out he might relax his demands. Its really going to become a big game of chicken, to see who gives in first. If I'm in the Texans I'm only trading him for fair market value, if not he can sit on the bench all year. Texans also have time on their side, they can trade him next season for just as much.

What would you realistically give up for him? 3 1st, 3 2nds, and CMC?

But you aren't applying your eyes to all of the receivers so your list is incomplete. Also there was a play were Diggs was covered by like the 4th CB, does that mean he is bad? am I doing this right. almost every WR could have better stats with a better QB, that's an impossible metric to define for all of the WRs, that why you are allowed to use their grades as a tool. Even PFF has had articles themselves talking bout how good Micheal Thomas really is. Their ranking isn't saying he is the best overall WR, its saying he graded the highest for that season. That is two different things. Most people can understand that. and honestly PFF is the one system that probably did give some credit to Hollywood Brown for being wide open. Traditional stats don't, stat based rankings don't, PFF might not be perfect but it is trying to address the one thing you keep complaining about, I'm sure Brown got a really grade on that play for running such a great route.

Show me better grades for all the players, i doubt yo have even watched all of the plays of the handful of guys you like. Their list is dumb to you because you are looking for a different list, here again you might want to stick to something you understand. Its ok Or suggest a better to grade every WR in the league.

You are just continuing to prove you don't understand what they are doing. No where are they disagreeing with the coaches. You are correct, you need to stick to stuff you can understand.

They watch more than you do and its not even close. I actually understand what they are doing so I'll keep using their resources to help me form opinions about players. The fact you are still talking about the easiest way to find out who the best WR is just reaffirms everything I said about you not understanding what they are doing with their grading system. It probably is best if you stick to something else.

its ok if you don't understand what they do As soon as you take time to watch every snap of every receiver and grade them I'll be sure to follow your list

Their system isn't flawed, I just understand it so I can put context to it. Its only flawed to those who don't understand it or are expecting it to be something they don't even claim for it to be. If you asked them to rank the best all around receives their list would probably look somewhat different. You are faulting them for being something they aren't claiming to be.

but your tape is limited, you aren't watching all the snaps emphasize? what exactly do you think they they are emphasizing All they can do is grade a player based on what he does on a snap, you can't grade a player based on what he could do with someone else. Do you really think anyone at PFF is going to say Beasly is better than Hill, or would prefer Beasly? If you are expecting their grading system to tell you something different that is on you and the fact you don't understand what they are doing. Who are your top-15 receivers, chances are its pretty similar.

Their grades mean plenty, you just have to be smart enough to understand how they come up with them and then apply them properly. PFF isn't' saying Adams is more dangerous than hill. All they are saying is Adams has had more positively graded plays (which is entirely possible) and therefore a higher grade. You are continuing to argue about something you clearly don't understand. They also have an analytical side that tracks numerous metrics, those might paint a different picture. Maybe Moore is 4th in the league in yards per route, or most broke tackles or yards of separation. As I said earlier, a WR might be the most dependent position on the filed, can they totally remove that dependency, of course not, but they can do a better job than just looking at straight stats such as total yards. Back to the plays in questions there is a very good chance that PFF actually did grade Moore higher, which is exactly what you are hoping for. A DE is probably easier to isolate. On most plays they are going up again one player with no help. Their PFF grades might be a better indicator how how good they compared to other DEs than maybe WRs are. The problem isn't with PFFs system, its the best we have for comparing all of the players, its with people who are too stupid to understand it.

game grade still probably wouldn't give you the full answer, that is only one snap out of how many? each play is graded -2 to +2 in .5 increments. Here again you should take the time to learn this. Their player grade are nothing but a combination of positive grades vs negative grades, doesn't mean one player can do more than the others. Its very possible that Adams had more highly graded plays than Moore this year, that doesn't necessarily mean he is better, a lot of times it does, but as you said WRs are somewhat dependent on usage. In reference to the two plays you showed, I'm sure both were positive scores. Adams might not had had a lot of separation but he did have some, the defender was in a trail position, and he did make the catch, so maybe that is a +1, purely a guess on my part. To me Moore's catch was more difficult, maybe a +1.5. Maybe a 2 would have been landing and breaking some tackles and scoring a td. They actually have a rubric for what each grade should represent on each play for each position and they try their best to apply that uniformly among all players regardless of what you think. Also I'm pretty confident in saying that Rodgers probably received a higher grade for his throw than Teddy did for his, which in itself makes PFF better than any other stat based scoring system we have.

PFF has that grade, they grade every play, you should take time to understand how they work, whether or not they give out that information that is a different question. I never said Adams was better, all I'm saying is he graded higher than Moore did on all of his plays last year based on the PFF grading system which does the best job of anything we have for grading all of the players in the league. I haven't took the time to watch each play of both and neither have you. I also understand how their system works and because of that I do realize that QB play will have some bearing on the grade and I can factor that in when looking at the list, but their system does try to account for QB play better than any other grading system we have. So yes, Moore could have actually received a higher grade for that catch of his opposed to the one Adams has. So in reality they are actually trying to accomplish the one thing you keep harping on with their grading system. Here again it would benefit you greatly to take time to understand how they work.

That's the only way to look at it. You give them both the same number of carries and receptions over the course of a year, and based on history Dalvin would have higher totals in both. Don't get me wrong, both players are very good, two of the best at their positions, but to think one is a lot better than the other is absurd.

I'm looking at rushing and receiving separately. touch includes both and CMC has more receptions which inflates the overall number.

Cook averages more per carry and reception. People confuse usage with ability.