AU-panther

I agree, feels like QB purgatory. Hence the reason I think we are going to pay a premium to get Watson or one of the top 3 QBs on their board.

If they wait until right before 5 someone could have all ready gone to 3 or 4.

Then you might be stuck with Teddy. I think everyone needs to realize that is still a real possibility. At 8 we are definitely at the mercy of other teams. When it is all said and done it might be the best option, I could see us overpaying. At that point do they roll with Teddy or release him and tank with Grier?

I don't know if our front office is willing to risk going to 5. After the Stafford trade attempt they seem to be hyper aggressive to get what they want. At 5 you aren't guaranteed any of the top-4 qi, let alone one of top 3 QBs. Miami could trade back. Atlanta could take a QB or they could trade back. The Falcons would probably love to prevent us from getting a QB. Also I'm not sure if we will like QB4 as much as QB3. When it is all said and done most teams will probably convince themselves that one is a lot better than the other. Only way I see us staying put or just going to 5 is if are convinced that we are the exception and like a certain QB, such as Lance, more that Fields but the rest of the league is higher on Fields. Maybe we roll the dice and wait, a bit like the Seahawks did with Russel Wilson, just in the top 10 not the first 3 rounds. Its all speculation at this point, but after the Stafford trade attempt we definitely don't seem like the passive types.

I'm not saying it is likely to happen, just the most likely of all of our options. Lets look at what we know. The fact we were willing to give up a lot for Stafford tells us that we really want a QB bad, and we are willing to give up considerable future assets to obtain the QB. Also I think Rhule wants to win sooner rather than later, not sure if we have the patience for a long rebuild. Some news out there that we aren't really interested in some of the later prospects, such as Mond or Newman. That along with the Stafford news reaffirms the idea we aren't looking for projects. That pretty much leaves us with Watson or one of the top QBs in the draft. Watson: Very good chance they aren't willing to trade him at all, but if they do, I think the Jets are in the driver seat because the can offer a QB, Wilson, with the 2nd pick. After the Jets though I think we could put together a compelling package because we have some good young players who would be valued in a trade. Overall though, if there is a 90% chance they won't trade him and then if they do the Jets have a better chance of getting him there is no way we can consider him as our most likely option. Of the top 4 QBs, I don't think we have the patience to sit at 8 and hope one is there, here again the Stafford trade tells us we aren't going to be passive. Everyone agrees that Trevor is going 1st, most people seem to think Wilson goes 2nd(Jets or Texans), that leaves Lance and Fields. A lot of fans would be happy with any of the top-4 QBs, but in realty most teams will probably like one of Lance or Fields a lot more than the other, just another reason why we won't stay put at 8. Going to 5 or 6 doesn't guarantee any of the 4 QBs, lets alone the top 3. Any team out there could trade above us. Atlanta is at 4 but I don't see them trading with us. Going to 3 is the only option that guarantees one of the top 4 QBs, in fact it gets you QB3 which most likely the team will like a lot more that QB4. Just seems like the most likely scenario at this point. As someone pointed out in another thread it won't be a cheap trade. You are looking at about a 800 point jump on the value chart, 2200 vs 1400. Our 2021 1st, 2021 2nd, and 2022 1st puts you around 2330 points. 1400+510+420. Future picks are usually valued a year later in the current year, a valued next years 1st as a mid 2nd this year. I could see us trying to package a player, instead of a pick. I could actually see the dolphins valuing CMC somewhat more than most teams, they might feel like he could take some pressure off of Tua. Something like 2021 1st, CMC and 2022 2nd. All of this could go out of the window if Dolphins decide to draft a QB.

Future draft picks are usually valued one round lower according to the chart. For example a 2022 1st is valued somewhat close to a current 1st. Where in the 1st round is somewhat dependent on who you are trading with but for this example lets go to the middle, pick 16. 2021 1st (3rd overall) = 2200 2021 1st (8th overall) = 1400 2021 2nd (39th overall) = 510 2022 1st (16th overall) = 420 1400+510+420=2330 You have to expect some overpay going for a QB. Also they might be more interested in future first than some combination of later picks this year. So, 2021 1st, 2021 2nd, and 2022 1st probably gets you in the ballpark of what it would take to trade up to 3 this year. When you look at that you kind of realize why they were willing to give up the 8th this year to get Stafford. Personally I would try to save next years 1st by trying to include a player. Something like, 2021 1st, CMC, and 2022 2nd.

Then say that, but you said they didn’t pick up the phone.

You said they aren’t listening to trade offers, how would they be aware?

Not answering the phone can be code for they aren’t countering. When you counter you are making an offer you are willing to accept. I fully can believe they haven’t got to that point, or even willing to trade him, but to think no team hasn’t offered something and they aren’t aware of aid offer is naive. Sometimes you have to use some common sense with all of these “reports”.

Source? I would think the ability to go after the signing bonus would be largely dependent on the individual contract between player and team.

If a player retires they can go after all of the signing bonus that wasn’t played for, If he is just refusing to play and not officially retired I think they have to go after it one year at a time for each year he doesn’t play, which would still be a large amount. Billionaire owners aren’t going to sign contracts that allow them to be screwed over. Guarantees are for injury and performance, refusing to play can be viewed as defaulting.

You can’t take everything that a writer, or coach, or player, or GM says so literal or absolute. He never really infers that this is what he thinks they should do. He phrases it pretty straightforward that that is a starting point. Sounds like someone whispered in his ear, but maybe not. As far an not returning calls, I find it hard to believe some team hasn’t offered something and I’m sure the Texans are aware of those offers. Too many agents and GMs and coaches know each other, especially with the senior bowl that just happened. That doesn’t mean they want to trade him but anyone who believes they aren’t aware of offers is being naive. Comments like “not returning phone calls” is postering.

Shaq and his contract isn't an asset. I'm not convinced Shaq will be on the team this year under his current contract. Shaq will have the 3rd highest salary this year of any 4-3 OLB. 2021 Linebacker Contracts and Salaries | Over The Cap How many teams consider him the 3rd best 4-3 OLB in the league? CMC might have some trade value, but that will depend on the philosophy of the GM. Some teams aren't crazy about paying a RB big money. Also the GM is from the Patriots who traditionally don't pay RBs much.

I don't think he is speculating, it would be more vague, something like "three 1st and a player or two". I think someone is whispering in his ear. They might have already received an offer close to that. That might be their way of letting other teams know the starting point. I do find it interesting that he said two young defensive players. All along I've thought Jets have the best package to offer but I'm not sure who they would want off of the their defense. The 49ers have some young defensive talent. Miami has Howard but I don't think he is on a rookie deal. We actually have more young defensive trade chips than most teams. Maybe us or the 49ers already offered something similar. Here again, this might be their way of letting other teams know what they have to beat. Maybe its their way of letting the Jets know they have to come off of more draft picks because other teams can offer players. I'm not 100% convinced they want to keep him (maybe 99%). Usually I'm of the "QB at all cost" camp, but the fact is they were terrible with him. Because of their old GM and coach their cap situation is terrible, their draft capital situation isn't the best. New GMs like to make their own mark, helps to have cap space and draft picks. Building around Watson might not be easy, getting a king's ransom and hitting on a draft QB might actually be somewhat appealing. If everything was great between them and Watson they could never justify trading him to their fans but they might see Watson's unhappiness as a blessing. This way they can reset the franchise and it looks like it was Watson's idea. There is no reason for them to say they are interested in trading them, acting like they won't is exactly what they should be doing. Its just odds some of the news that has "leaked".

From what I understand McClain is pretty connected with the Texans. I doubt he came up with the numbers by himself, someone is probably whispering in his ear. Ive said all along it will probably take at least a combination of “5” for Watson. Three 1st and 2 players, 4 1st and a player maybe they take two seconds instead of one of the first like McClain is saying. Maybe they count the #2 overall pick of the Jets as multiple 1st. Either way, all of you holding out this idea that Watson and his so called leverage is going to make trading for him cheaper need to give up on that idea. I do find it interesting that they are looking for young players also, minimizes the risk of them missing on all of the draft picks. That does help us though, we definitely have decent young players, especially on defense that we could include in a trade. Based on this tweet the starting point for the Panthers would be something like two 1st, 2 2nds, and Burns and Brown or Chinn. How many people would be happy with that?

Sounds like they did have offers of a 1st this year from multiple teams. All those suggestions of us offering a 2nd or 3rd seem pretty stupid now.

or maybe Detroit doesn't want Goff at all, doesn't make sense for a team looking to rebuild. Maybe Rams find a 3rd team to take Goff.

in the grand scheme of things, jobs in the NFL are very rare, there will never be shortage of guys willing to fill those spots.

yes, another Desean Watson post. I see a lot of misinformation in all of these Watson threads so it might be good to explain how some of this works. First of all the financial reasons Watson won't sit out too long: So far in his career he has made about $40m. Lets assume between agents and taxes he lost about 40% (speak up any accountants) of that, that leaves about $24m. Sounds great, but $27m of that was a signing bonus, of which he has only played one year of. According to Schefter they could actually go back after $21.6m. So if he has $24m and they can go after $21.6m, that only leaves $2.4m. To most of us that is enough to live a lifetime but I'm guessing he has bigger bills than us. I know he probably has some endorsement money also but overall he stands to lose a large percentage of his income. He needs his money way more than the Texans need theirs. He won't sit out for an extend time or retire. In regards to the "no trade clause" it doesn't create as much leverage as some on here think. A "no trade clause" has the most leverage when a player DOESN'T want to be traded. Example: Team says, "Hey Desean, we are trading you to Minnesota", Desean says, "no thanks, I like it here, I have a no trade clause." No trade clauses are mostly designed to help players NOT get traded. Once a player says he wants to get traded he basically loses some of the leverage that the clause carries. Example: Desean says "I want to be traded". Desean says, "I really want to go to the 49ers". Teams says "we have better deals from the Jets and Panthers, you can choose between those two or you can not be traded at all" The team knows Desean wants to leave, and they know if he wants to leave that bad he will go to most teams. Don't get me wrong, the no trade clause helps, and yes Desean can sit out and it does hurt the team but he doesn't have all of the leverage like some on here think.

they can take most of that $30m back

I would think that there are owners around the league who hope that the Texan's don't give in. I doubt many owners like the idea of players being able to force their way out. Personally I do think Watson has a very good chance of getting out, I'm just not convinced its as one sided as most fans think. The Texans aren't going to give him away for nothing.

and some older guy will get worse or retire, which will offset the young guys this year, there will always be a need for QBs. Some years the net change might be al little less than others but either way there will always be a need for QBs. If they trade him now its not going to be because they think it will be less next year, its simply because they want the assets now or to avoid drama.

You are forgetting about ego. That owner might be more than happy to make Watson sit a year, and give up an extra pick or two, over letting Watson get his way. Even though I have my doubts they would get much less next year. His trade value might go down somewhat after the draft this year, but then it will just go back up next offseason.

True, I agree with all of that, but here again that is why I said "close". What if a team already has an elite WR? Also don't discount the length of time left on rookie deals, 2 yrs vs 4 yrs. There are teams out there who wouldn't give you a 7th to pay Moore $16m a year and he is only one year away from expecting a new deal. I'm thinking something like Burns > Moore > Brown > CMC > Chinn CMC is hard to value, some teams have no desire to spend that much on any RB. On the other hand he seems to sell jerseys. Also I think he looks a lot better for a team that is in win now mode. If a team is in rebuild mode they would be better asking for Chinn and saving the cap.

^this People need to remember that you don't trade players, you trade their contracts. A great player on a rookie contract is worth exponentially more that a great player on a huge contract. I could actually see some teams viewing Derrick Brown close to Moore, 4 cheap years vs 2 for Moore. The one plus of CMC is that his signing bonus is already paid, so if a team trades for him they are just on the hook for future salary and bonus. We basically gave him a $16m a year extension. If he is traded he will end up costing the new team about $10.5m a year.