AU-panther

ok, if you say so doesn't change the fact the point of my post was that it's not a crazy idea to think they are trying to show heavy interests in the top 3 QBs for a reason outside of taking one of the top 3 QBs. Would I put money on that, probably not, but that doesn't mean there isn't a chance of that happening.

Waiting until the 3rd round to take a QB that you are really high on takes some discipline. Doesn't change the fact that they showed very little interest outwardly towards Wilson. I'm not saying they aren't taking a QB, I'm just saying it wouldn't be a crazy idea to show heavy interest in the top 2-3 QBs if they are hoping some of the top non-QBs fall to you. I would think you would be happy about that.

The more obvious everything seems the more it all seems like a smokescreen. Maybe we are hoping 1 or 2 QBs go before us so we can get one of the top-2 tackles or maybe we really want to trade down for Howell or Ridder. If I remember correctly, and I wish I could find the article, I want to say I read something one time that talked about how much Seattle slow played drafting Wilson, basically they gave no indication during the draft. Something to think about with Fitterer here now.

People get caught up with this concept of floor/ceiling, but they only think in terms of arm strength and athletic ability. What about their eyes? Do they stare down receivers? That lowers your ceiling. Can they manipulate a safety with their eyes? That raises their ceiling. Can they go beyond just completing the pass and hit the receiver in stride so the receiver can convert the third down? That raises their ceiling. Can they vary trajectory to drop a pass in a void on a cover-2? That raises their ceiling. Can they go through progressions or do they latch on to the first read? At the NFL good DCs will take away your first read. How many people here have actually sat down and watched a full game of any of these QB prospects, or are we just forming opinions off of pro days and highlight vids? I actually took time to day to watch a full game cut up from Malik today and actually came away impressed. Everyone talks about his arm strength but I saw some nice touch on some of the passes. What I didn't see was him dropping back and going through a bunch of progressions and such. Is that because he can't or is that because he wasn't asked to? That is the big question that all of these evaluators have to ask. Same could be said about some of these other QBs also. I do expect to go fairly high though, coaches fall in love with "tools" they assume they can teach the skills i was referring to earlier.

Maybe the cap isn't a myth.....

even if they did have a favorite why in the world would they tell everyone? I know fans get excited and want to know what is going to happen before it does, but honestly, they shouldn't let the world know.

there are metrics out there that are based on percentage of pressures that results in sacks, the number of pressures or how good or bad the O-line is therefore irrelevelent. For example: QB A is pressured 100 times takes 20 sacks. QB B is only pressured 60 times but takes 15 sacks. QBA at first glance gets sacked more but in reality QB does a worse job of avoiding being sacked.

he isn't, what is your point?

for all of his skill as a runner he takes sacks at an alarming rate, that is somewhat concerning though

nothing to gain really. Everyone already thinks he is really fast. Running a 4.5 has a greater chance of hurting his stock then running a 4.4 does in helping his stock.

I don't think people are so much saying QBs that can run can't win a Super Bowl, its more QBs that can run, but are limited working from the pocket. Roders is mobile, but he happens to be pretty good from the pocket, same with someone like Young.

No he isn't, he is a better prospect, that will most likely become a better QB in time, but Minshews best NFL seasons are better than Lawrences best NFL seasons. What you have done on the field and what people expect you to do at some point are two different things and until Lawrance does that he isn't better. With that being said I'm sure 32 out of 32 teams would take Lawrance but that doesn't mean he was better than Minshew in his rookie season, and likewise not drafting any QB because you don't expect him to be better than Minshew in their rookie season is dumb.

Small hand guy fumbles a lot it's because he has small hands. Big hand guy fumbles a lot its just because he fumbles a lot. Why the NFL combine built a myth around QB hand size, a measurement that doesn't mean anything (espn.com) Kenny Pickett might fumble a lot in the NFL but his small hands won't be the predictor of that, his past history will.

is Trevor Lawrence?

gloves, and small hands, and short arms are things that matter in theory but if in practice the results are fine then they really don't matter. If the ball gets to the receiver with good accuracy, timing, and velocity the fact it came from a gloved/ungloved hand is irrelevant.

I didn't say anythign about passing on anyone, but this idea that a top 10 pick guarantees you top-3 type of talent at any position is just wrong. Speaking of slater, is he top 3, everyone probably thought Sewell would be, that is 2 of your top 3. That means only one of the three top tackles in this class can be. See, the math doesn't really work does it? Casual fans always have unrealistically high expectations of draft picks. I'm not saying any of these tackles will or won't be, I actually really like this tackle class, but statistically speaking the chance of a top 10 tackle becoming top-3 talent is more unlikely then it is likely.

How long of a career do most top 3 LTs have? 10-15 years? During that time how many LT prospects are drafted in the top 10? As you can see the math doesn't add up, they can't all become top 3. The fact is the chance of any LT drafted becoming top 3 at their position is the exception, not the rule. Fans have a bad habit of convincing themselves that every top-10 pick is a future hall of fame player.

there is some logic in that. Throw Howell in that also. Between those 4 you would think at least one will be there at 15-20, and history tells us its a gamble anyway. but what often happens is the teams will evaluate all of them and at some point one or two will become a lot more desirable to them so the teams will be scared to trade down.

its not even Pickett so much of the idea that they might not convince themselves that will have another chance to draft a QB this high again. I don't see Rhule, or Fitterer, or Morgan working on the assumption they will have a top-5 pick next year, or probably even top-10. I think we can all agree they have been pretty aggressive this offseason, right or wrong they are expecting to be better next year.

yep, and I've seen a few anylyst who really like him. Honestly this is an odd QB class, its truly going to be "beauty is in the eye of beholder." I think there is going to be a huge variance among the QBs rankings on different teams' boards. I could easy see Pickett, Willis, or even Howell going 1st. People probably think I'm crazy saying Howell, but he was really highly thought of going into the season. Teams don't get caught up in the moment as much as fans. Teams probably already had a pretty high grade on him. I think PFF has him as their top QB, prospect as well. Like you said it only takes one.

the arm thing is overplayed by this fanbase. Pickett doesn't have an elite arm like a Cam or Allen, but who does, but he has an above average arm that can make all of the throws. This idea that he is some low ceiling, Bridgewater clone is just wrong. Bridgewater was a risk adverse prospect with probably a below average arm. People act like Pickett is some undersized, weak armed, unathletic prospect and he isn't. He has good size, 6'3" around 220lbs, above average athlete, above average arm. If I remember correctly I saw a tweet one time that he actually led all college QBs in passes and TDS over 20 yards, that in itself isn't indicative of low ceiling. The biggest issue with Pickett isn't tools, its the fact he had one great season and that scares people. Also the hand size is a concern for some, just like arm length for tackles some people shy away from that. If Pickett had multiple seasons like 2021 he would be the top pick in the class, its not the tools holding him back. He might very well not work, but lets be honest the vast majority of QBs don't work out.

I believe there will be some teams out there that have Ridder higher on their boards than what most fans think. Some team might get him at 25 and in reality, have him as QB2 on their board and be ecstatic about the pick.

I'm usually as skeptical as anyone when it comes to news but it very well could be true like you say. A lot of us fans want to wait until next year to draft a QB in a more talented class but a lot of fans are also expecting to to be drafting in the top-5. I feel pretty confident in saying that Rhule, and Fitterer, and Morgan aren't expecting to be drafting in the top-5 next year based on all of the moves they have done the offseason. They might very well be wrong, but they don't' have that mindset. What if end up drafting 12-15 next year, at that point we might end up with QB5. This year at 6 we could easily get QB1. It is not crazy at all to believe that they might like the top QB in this class as much as the 4th or 5th QB in next years class. Here again they might be wrong, but its not crazy to believe they are thinking that way.

do you really think they are doing all of this to make Cam successful?

I'm not saying he should be the pick, or shouldn't be, but if the goal is to win now and save a job, I could see him being the pick.