AU-panther

The Teddy Bridgewater and Kenny Pickett comparisons are just lazy and bad. Maybe they are both viewed as accurate but that's about it. While Pickett might not have an "elite" arm most are saying its above average, at the very least it's not a negative. Teddy on the other hand, by many accounts, was considered to have a below average arm. Also Teddy is one of the most risk adverse QBs you will find, to a fault at times. Whereas Pickett, at least in his senior year, was more than just a game manager. While I might not call it a "cannon" this narrative that he is some unathletic, weak armed, game manager type is just wrong. None of this guarantees he will have any kind of sucess at the next level, and I'm not even sure if I would spend the #6 pick on him, but its pretty obvious there are a lot of people in this forum who have really never seen him play.

Yes, because the scouting department are the ones coming up with the list of best prospects for him to choose from. Could his personal bias towards Pickett influence an early pick and cause him to override everyone else in the building, of course, but I don't think he is scouting the hundreds of draft eligible players himself. For most part though I would think, even if he is making the final call, it is based off a board that has been constructed with the input of many people.

No they didn’t His grades were good even in his early years.

I did read them, it just wasn’t relevant to the discussion we had in wether Herbert and Lance has some accuracy issues coming out of college. I said they did in an earlier post and for some reason you tried to say I was wrong, so i replied with facts.

I did open them, they both contained stats that applied to the two QBS we were talking about, I assumed people would separate that from the article, since we really were not talking about the other people in the articles, next time I'll point that out, my bad

I didn't present either article as as predictor of anything, they just happened to be the first article that I found that had the stats that supported my statement that neither Herbert or Lance were that great in the accuracy department that you disagreed with. I don't keep a library of old tweets and articles from previous drafts to prove points later. If you want to go with just regular completion percentage I'm happy for you, personally I think in itself it doesn't tell you the entire story, especially at the college level with offensives that are often watered down. So Cam with larger average depth of target, and with receivers with more drops, should be judged by the same completion stat of a QB that throws a lot more short passes with better receivers? Back to the watered down offenses, I saw an article today that tried to really break down the differences of these top QBs in the draft based on different throws and situations(such as pressure, blitz, etc) One of the graphs just talked about the 10-20 yard out, and which QBs were actually good at that. That is actually a staple throw at the NFL level that you don't always see at the college level. its a throw that actually takes good velocity and timing, Some of these guys really haven't done that much, and some really aren't that great at it. That is actually the type of things scouts are looking at when they watch film. Just looking at regular completion percentage is box score scouting.

Those aren't evolutions that PFF listed those are stats based on their definition of uncatchable, nothing more or less. They aren't saying which QB will turn out best in those graphs, all they are doing is showing the results of tracking every throw under the criteria of the graph that is listed. I don't doubt Simms ability to evaluate which QB will turn out better, but I seriously doubt he actually knows the exact percentages for the ball placement of the 4000+ pass attempts of Howell, Willis, Pickett, and Correll. Companies like PFF actually track every attempt. Their definition of perfect ball placement might be different than Simm's but that doesn't change the fact they do it in a very thorough and scientific way. Also its entirely possible for both of them to be right. Mayve from an overall picture Correll is the most accurate, when you take in to account all types of throws and all depth of targets, but that doesn't change that its possible for Pickett to have the least uncatchable balls in a certain yardage range. Fans love to complain about stats but more times than not they are trying to read too much into them, or they don't understand them, or they just don't line up with the narrative that the fan wants to believe. Everyone is trying to prove everyone wrong here but really the three graphs pretty much tell us what we all already think. Picket is pretty accurate. Correll is also pretty accurate. In the first graph that Pickett is so high on Correll really isn't' that far behind. Correll is actually ahead of Pickett in the graph that Gooby posted. Howell seems to throw a really good deep ball and Willis seems to be behind in accuracy. None of this is really earth shattering. Although Willis is interesting in that on his deep passes his accuracy is behind the other guys but he is actually better than most as far as uncatchable throws. That leads you to believe he might not make the perfect throw as often as some of the others but he doesn't' totally miss as often as the other guys. Then you notice that if you look at the chart that includes all of the passes that are 10 yards or more his uncatchable goes up so that tells you somewhere in that 10-20 yard range he is struggling, which that is a different set of routes you are throwing.

Its not the chart that makes the number valid, its actually tracking every throw, I seriously doubt he kept a running percentage in his head for each of the top prospects, just for Howell, Pickett, Correll and Willis that is over 4,000 attempts in their careers, and not only remember each completion/incompletion but also remember the depth of target. What he did was make a general statement based on film study. As far as contradicting themselves we already went over this once, its different data points. The charts I listed are 10 and 15 yards, yours is 20. Is "catchable/uncatchable subjective"? Of course it is. Your definition might be different than mine, and both of ours might be different then theirs. What you hope for is they apply uniformly in their evaluation and at the end of the day you are really looking for is how each player compares relatively. If you like simple stats that is fine. Regular completion percentage is concrete, everyone will come up to the same number. Either it was ruled a catch or it wasn't, but it can be a bit a misleading. It doesn't tell you about depth of target. You can add that, and that is also a concrete number, but what if you want to take it a step further. How about accuracy? Two QBs have have completion percentages fairly close but what if one hits their receiver in stride more often at that point you have to add a subjective aspect to your data, here again your definition of accurate pass might be different than mine, but what really matters is we judge all of the players under the same definition and at that point the ranking are similiar.

they aren't contradicting anything, different data points (years and yards) look at a route tree and the yards at which most of those routes are run and you will see that each set of stats is representing a different subset of passes. Over 20 yards will have a higher percentage of go routes then over 10 yards as the parameters, under that logic it's really no surprise to see Howell towards the top. and btw did Simms chart the accuracy or was it just off the cuff opinion? actually, he admits he doesn't know what the accuracy numbers are Chris Simms’ 2022 NFL Draft QB Rankings: Why Matt Corral stands out from the pack - NBC Sports It's always amusing when fans get so upset over stats that don't line up with their preconceived notions and agenda. It's just one little piece of the puzzle. Maybe Picket really has the least number of really uncatchable passes over 10 yards. That doesn't necessarily mean he is overall the most accurate passer. What if they look at the % of passes that hit the receiver in stride? Thats an entirely different stat, maybe Corral is more accurate in that regard.

don't confuse completion percentage with accuracy, What Does Accuracy Tell Us About The 2020 Quarterback Draft Class? | Sharp Football (sharpfootballanalysis.com) 2021 NFL Draft All-Upside Team: Trey Lance starts at QB, Levi Onwuzurike and Joseph Ossai star on defense | NFL Draft | PFF

as long as he applies his definition uniformly across all of the QBs it really doesn't matter if comes up with the definition, it still gives you an idea on how they compare relative to each other. If you have took the time to chart all of their throws over 10 yards or have a better source for their downfield accuracy please share.....

historically yes Josh Allen has been a bit of an exception, also If I remember some of Herberts accuracy metrics were not the best coming out. The NFL tends to be a bit of copy cat league, I really think Josh Allen's success helped someone like Trey Lance get drafted as high as we did. All of a sudden it is in vogue to take the toolsy guy and hope he can improve his accuracy. That same thought process will probably get Willis drafted a lot higher than he would have in the past.

With all of the QB pro days it’s easy to get caught up with who is throwing the ball the furthest or the most completions in shorts and t-shirts so it might be nice to have some actual game time stats to compare these guys with. We like to talk about elite traits but at the end of the day actually giving your WR a chance to catch the ball might be the most important trait. Same stat but for 15+ yards since 2019 This doesn’t guarantee Pickett will be good or that Willis will bust but it’s interesting none the less.

Lets say Willis makes it to 6, some team (maybe Pittsburg) might want to jump Atlanta to move up? Maybe Seattle? Some surprise team such as Saints or Vikings. With Atlanta trading Ryan it actually helps the chances of a trade down for us, because teams have to think there is a good chance Atlanta could go QB. Of course they could call the Giants which are also ahead of Atlanta but they might want too much to move down. Also if a team trades with the Giants they still run the risk of us taking a QB so it actually makes more sense to trade up with us. This is part of the reason we are going to act like we want a QB even if we don't.

none as of right now Compensatory Picks | Over the Cap

OTs of the past 10 years from 2021 NFL Draft Listing | Pro-Football-Reference.com 2012: Matt Kahil 2013: Eric Fisher, Luke Joeckel, Lane Johnson 2014: Greg Robinson, Jake Matthews 2015: Ereck Flowers 2016: Ronnie Stanley, Jack Conklin 2017: 2018: Mike McGlinchey 2019: 2020: Andrew Thomas, Jedrick Wills JR 2021: Penei Sewell Alot of these guys moved to RT but coming out of college a lot of teams were hoping for LT, just like one or more of the top guys this year might end up moving. As you can see by the list, there are no guarantees of a finding a quality LT even drafting in the top 10.

From what I could tell Willis threw it from the far 35, receiver caught it about a yard deep in the end zone, so 66 yards. Here is Pickett's "long throw" 1:50 mark NFL Network's Daniel Jeremiah, Bucky Brooks highlight QBs with highest ceiling, highest floor in 2022 NFL Draft class About 62 yards, but he actually looked pretty under control on the throw. I'm not saying he has a stronger arm then Willis, he doesn't, but people get too caught up on these kind of things. On a side note, it wouldn't surprise me at all if Howell doesn't throw it as far as Willis and Ridder on his pro day.

PFF didn't make the Fitzgerald-Spielberger trade value chart, it just happens to be the one they use to judge these GMs with this graph for this article. Even then all they are doing is looking at if the GM is winning or loosing the trade based on point differential based on the chart. How the picks actually turn out is irrelevant to this graph. Here is a write up about the various charts that NFL team use, with the Jimmy Johnson chart being the most well known. The Fitzgerald-Spielberger trade value chart is a good bit newer and tries to factor in the rookie wage scale that was implemented in 2011. NFL Trade Value Charts: Different draft trade value charts to follow (profootballnetwork.com)

no he didn't, watch his follow through, he uncorks his whole body and falls to his left

What they are most likely talking about is a package that includes some teams 1st this year + that teams 1st next year. For example the Giants 5th pick for Washington's 11th this year plus Washingtons 2023 1st. That trade is actually pretty close on the charts. Or Pittsburg's 1st this year and their 2nd next, even though Pittsburg's 1st this year is 20th so they would have to add even more to it.

either way, fans throw out term like generational way too often. Go look at all of the LTs drafted in the top-10 in the last 10 years, there is risk involved with them also. Forget generational, history tells us that even Neal and Ekwonu probably have less than 50% chance of becoming top-5 LTs in the league. With that being said both I agree with you that both of those tackles are safer picks than any of the QBs, but in reality there always pretty much be safter non-QBs at any point in the draft to pick. There were probably safer picks we could have made instead of Cam. At some point you just have to weigh the reward with the risk.

can all 3 really be generational? I agree that the LTs on paper look like better prospects than these QBs but lets don't act like they are sure things. There is risk with almost any player.

From a money perspective maybe, but from from a WAR (Wins above replacement) perspective, QBs are in a league of their own. Even if you want to say LTs are second its a distant second.

because Wentz is better than what Washington had last year and Ryan is better than the Colts had last year.

Here is what scares me about Love: You have a team that spent a high pick on him for the sole reason to replace their current QB(Rodgers) at some point. They have had him in house, in their system, for two years, and think so little of him that they let Rodgers have every bit of leverage and made him the highest paid player ever in the league. This isn't some QB who went to a bad team that ruins QBs, he is on a team that usually has pretty good QB play.