AU-panther

There is very good chance though that they don't have all 3 LTs rated as top shelf. Us fans would be happy with any of the top-3 LTs, but in reality, the Panthers and most likely other teams might have a gap between OT2 and OT3. I've said for awhile that going D is a very real possibility. All the QB talk might be smokescreen, OT1 and OT2 could very easily go before we pick, we might not be crazy about OT3. Also BC might factor into this. We might start convincing ourselves that he can be a decent LT. The fact Rhule is probably trying to win now might play into this also. What helps us win more this year, going from BC at LT to OT3 or adding a stud DE?

I see both sides, I really do. You don't want to waste a pick on a guy you think has zero chance of making it but at some point a QB is almost always a riskier choice that one or more non-QBs. For those that don't want to gamble on a QB this year, did you feel the same about Cam? Also in the last 10 years how many QB would you have been ok gambling on? Luck, Lawrance... Even though we were not in position to pick one of them, they went before our pick. In the last 10 years how many QBs that were available to pick at our spot were you willing to gamble on? Very true, fans have convinced themselves they are trading a 100% of being great for a 1% chance of being great. Also people need to remember that although the LT probably does have a greater chance of being good, but even if they are they really only help your team a little bit compared to what being right on the QB does.

and how exactly did he make the impact?? Just because you made a tackle close to the line of scrimmage doesn't mean he is making a big impact if another LB would have made the same. Under your logic if he makes a tackle 2 yards past the LOS he is making more of an impact than if he making a tackle 5 yards past the LOS. That is incomplete logic. What if that tackle he makes at 2 yards past the LOS another LB would have made one yard past the LOS then its not really impressive. Then what if that tackle 5 yards past the LOS another safety would have made 6 yards past the LOS? All of a sudden the tackle further back is more impressive. You can't just look at where a tackle is made to judge a player. There is so much more that goes into it. Its all relative to how a replacement player would have produced in the same situation.

More solo tackles in year 2. More tackles for loss in year 2. Same number of sacks. Same QB hits. The numbers don't back up the idea that he was more productive year 1.

Oustside of two freak plays what else did he do so much better in his rookie season?

That is my point exactly, you are rating entire seasons off of 2 splash plays you happened to see in tv. What about the other 900 snaps? Recovering fumbles and returning them for TDS are freak plays. He might go an entire career without getting another one regardless of hat position he plays. Outside of those plays his stats were very close. If he was invisible to anyone it’s just because they were not watching.

Great post. Also look at his PFF grade from 2020 and 2021 and also his run defense grade vs pass defense grade. Fans are stupid, they hear the announcers talk about Chinn leading rookies in tackles his rookie year and then see a few missed coverages his second year and form these absolute opinions that often far from reality. His tackle totals are actually close, and in reality tackles by themselves are a poor stat to judge a player by. Tackles are usually a product of position and defensive alignment. You have to ask yourself did he make a tackle a tackle another safety would or wouldn’t have? Also did he make the tackle earlier than another safety? Or maybe he actually made a yard later? At that point it’s a negative stat. Just because he has a high tackle total doesn’t mean he is great against the run. Very possible he tackles well in space but might have trouble getting off blocks.

Nice throw. Fans like to see the long bombs, but honestly some of the other top guys can make that throw (60-65 yard completion) Where Howell really separates himself from some of the other guys in the draft is on some of the out routes. Personally I want to like Howell a lot. I think he has one of the best arms in the draft, clearly is tough, and athletic enough not to be a liability based on the rushing load he took on this year. My only concern, and I honestly haven't watched him as much as others, are some of the advanced accuracy metrics on him. If a QB struggles when everyone goes well, that can be a bit of a red flag. Maybe his O-line was so bad last year he was a bit jumpy when he did have time? I'm sure you can probably speak to that better than most of us since you follow him so closely.

At first I was thinking it was just because of Watson but he was traded March 20th, and CMC restructured March 22?

No its not. If it was then why did the Chiefs lets Hill walk? Or Packers let Adams walk? Great players leave teams all the time and its because of the salary cap. The only people who think the cap is a myth are those that don't understand it. With that being said most teams, most years, have slack build into their contracts that they can create extra cap space with. That is the restructuring I talked about it earlier, or they can cut/trade players to create space. So these numbers that fans see for available cap space are often very misleading.

Thats not true, rookies don't take as much as people think. People add up all of the salaries of the rookies and think that is how much you need and it doesn't work that way. You have to remember those rookies are replacing contracts that are already on the team. So a 5th round pick will make around $800k but he will replace a guy making $600k so you that doesn't really add much. The only picks that really add much to your needed cap space are your 1st and 2nd rounders. Everyone else is getting paid close to league minimum which is the same as your current players. Also we don't have a 2nd.

That is funny and sad all at the same time. Hurney did it because he had to, usually because overspent in previous years. This situation is different. We didn't have to do this, unless we are strongly considering adding someone that we need the space for.

According to overthecap.com we are first in cap space available in the league with roughly $34m in available cap space. NFL Salary Cap Space | Over The Cap At first glance this seems to be a good thing, but people need to realize that the reason we have the most cap space is because we have pretty much restructured everyone on the team that has a base salary of any size outside of Sam Darnold. The next highest base salary is Cam Erving at only $4m. For those that don't know the most common way for teams to create cap space is to restructure players. You do this by converting base salary to a bonus and prorating it over future years, up to 5 years. For example if a player has an $11m base salary in the current year their cap hit is $11m. If you convert $10m into a singing bonus you can then account for that $10m over a max of 5 years. That would lower their current cap hit to $3m ($1m base salary + $2m (which is the $10m spread over 5 years)). Basically you have just created $8m of cap space in the current year. While there are teams with less listed cap space then us, in reality they have a lot more available cap space because they have several players that have high base salaries that they could always restructure. For example the bears could easily create another $35-$40m in cap space if they wanted to. The Steelers could create another $30m or so. The Ravens could get $40-50m more. My point is we are almost fully leveraged, the credit cards are maxed so to speak. Why do teams do this? Teams don't like to restructure if they don't have to. Why would you ever take non guaranteed salary and guarantee it? Teams do this whey they have to. If they are over the cap they have to, for example the Saints most years. Or if they are right at the cap they might restructure a few guys so they have a little bit of cushion to go into the year, just incase you have to sign someone because of injuries, but usually not to the point of $30m of space. Another reason a team might do this is if they plan on signing or trading for someone. I'm not saying we are trading for Jimmy G (or Baker), but that $30m in cap space we have created would allow us to take on his salary, sign our rookies, and still leave a little bit of cushion for the season. None of know for sure what is going to happen but the money says we are looking to sign a vet QB and then draft a non-QB (hopefully LT). I could even see a scenario where we trade down on draft night and use those extra picks to trade for one of the vets.

What were their OT rankings last year? Also what big boards do you feel are good?

I should have specified better, at #6 we are looking for a franchise LT. If they end up having to move to another position I think its a bit of a missed pick.

Just because he is involved doesn’t mean he decided to overrule everyone. Maybe he wanted to but decided not to. Either way, when it’s a high pick and a QB is involved the owner is almost always involved regardless of the team, none of this is earth shattering. A QB is the face of a franchise, the franchise that the owner spend millions/billions of their money on. Of course they are involved.

There seems to be this idea that there are 3 surefire franchise LTs in this year's draft. As a fan, who would love to see his team have a franchise LT, I hope this is the case, but history tells us that it probably isn't. Here is a list of every T drafted in the top 10 for the past 10 years from: 2021 NFL Draft Listing | Pro-Football-Reference.com 2012: Matt Kahil 2013: Eric Fisher, Luke Joeckel, Lane Johnson 2014: Greg Robinson, Jake Matthews 2015: Ereck Flowers, Brandon Scheerf 2016: Ronnie Stanley, Jack Conklin 2017: 2018: Mike McGlinchey 2019: 2020: Andrew Thomas, Jedrick Wills JR 2021: Penei Sewell As you can see several of them haven't turned out that great, and several have ended moving to other positions. Of Neal, Cross and Ekwonu, who do you think is the most likely not to work out at LT?

Fields has had one year, Mitch is on his 5th.

I actually agree with you that based on old school charts the Saints didn't give up as much as people think. Usually future picks are valued a round later, so next years first would be like a 2nd this year, would you trade a 1st this year for a 2nd and 3rd this year? Nope but here is what I'm thinking Philly thought, lets cancel out the trdes like this. Going from 16 to 18 and receiving a 3rd isn't bad, close to the charts. So basically they are trading #19 for a 1st next year and a 2nd the following year. Based on traditionally charts that isn't much in return but Philly is basically gambling that the 1st next year will be better than #19, in a class that on paper might have more QBs therefore they could get lucky and get a valuable pick. Even if they don't want a QB, maybe its a pick they can flip again next year for a team that wants a QB. Teams devalue future picks because everyone is trying to win now but in reality if they end up with #10 next year, that is better than #19 this year if the team is thinking long term. Of course this is all a gamble because they end up with pick #25, Also the fact that Philly had 3 1st round picks before this trade is probably playing into it. Maybe from a cap perspective this not only spreads out 1st round contracts, but also future extensions. Its definitely a gamble, but with Brady coming back to Tampa Bay and if you expect the saints to draft a QB its not crazy to think that the 1st from the Saints next year could be a pretty high pick.

They had a good LT last year and it didn't help that much since they didn't have a QB. Also the tackles they did have they found at the end of the 1st round and the 3rd round. I'm not convinced Loomis thinks he has to have a top-5 pick to find a good LT. I would be shocked if they are spending all of this draft capital of to move up in the top-10 for a tackle.

seems as logical as anything. What are the other options? Moving up for a tackle? seems expensive Some have said they have a big need at tackle and WR. Maybe they keep both picks and try to fill both and win with Winston? Seems really risky especially this far out. Maybe they really like one of the QBs they expect to be there in the mid part of round 1. This way they have 2 picks, they can draft someone like Howell or Ridder and still draft a WR or OT? Also seems risky this far out.

Does anyone find it odd that we keep getting reports of how high we are on Cross?

I agree that is the most logical course of action for Philly, I just think it would be funny if the screwed the Saints out of a chance of moving up.

There was talk that the Giants really wanted to move down and would like the package to include a 1st from next year. What if Philly uses next years 1st from the Saints to try and move up also? There might be more action this year than people were thinking.

^This You have to factor in the contract associated with the #6 pick, it's basically an $8m a year contract. If you draft a center he better better a top-5 talent or else you are overpaying, because of this he isn't nearly the safe pick that everyone thinks he is. By contrast if you draft a LT at #6 and if he even turns out average its still a good pick because average LT's are expensive.