AU-panther

Before the trade I was thinking it would take something like our 2023 1st and 2nd, 2024 1st and 2nd, and 2025 1st to move all the way to #1. Turns out we gave them 2023 1st and 2nd, 2024 1st, 2025 2nd, and D.J. Moore. Under that scenario D.J.'s value was basically a 2025 1st and giving them a 2025 2nd instead of a 2024 2nd. According to an article by Albert Breer that was recently linked by Mr. Scot they looked at D.J. as basically a replacement for the 2025 1st, which pretty close to what I was thinking. Should we have been able to get more for DJ? Would he get more on the open market than a 2025 1st? Also, when the report came out that we turned down two 1st round picks for Burns the main argument against it was that they are future year 1st and therefore valued one round lower for each year. Under that logic we got a 3rd round value for Moore. Also, that same article said there was talk that it would take 2 1st and 2 2nds to move to a pick in the top 5. From pick 5 to pick 9 is about 350 points which is a later 2nd. So that 3rd round value isn't too far off. Could we have traded Moore during the season and used that draft capital to move up to 5? 2023 NFL Trade Value Chart (drafttek.com) In regard to Moore's value you also have to look at his contract, a player's contract heavily influences their trade value. A good player on a rookie contract is worth a lot more than a player you have to sign to a mega contract. While Moore isn't on a rookie contract, he still has a very favorable contract. He signed a long-term deal with us so we have already paid the signing bonus. They are mostly just responsible for their yearly salary. Roughly $50m for 3 years which is a bargain for #1 receiver. When it comes to QBs you usually have to overpay in the draft, and if we find our franchise QB we will all be happy with the deal, but if I think Chicago did a good job in what they received. They might miss on all of the picks but that is irrelevant at this point.

All 29 times that NFL teams traded up to draft a quarterback (espn.com) in hindsight maybe but here are 29 times teams thought they were so sure they were willing to not only trade up but often overpay and as you can see they were often wrong. Even when it looks like they were right, like Houston trading up for Watson (ignoring the off-field issues) if they hadn't traded up, they would have kept their following year pick they could have drafted Allen with. I'm not saying I'm totally opposed to "going and getting your guy" but there is a risk/reward aspect you have to look at. Fact is none of these guys are sure things. Also, Cam had a lot better risk/reward profile because we didn't have to trade up for him. If we would have been wrong, we were not out any future picks. What's the maximum you would give up to go to 1, I think there is a point that we would all say, "no thank you".

or trading away Baker and having to settle for Allen the following year. Works both ways. and honestly Cam was different, we didn't have to trade up. I'm taking about the amount of risk that you have to incur when you package picks. For example, the Rams traded up for Goff. They could have stayed put and hoped Wentz or Goff fell to them, if they didn't, they could have used one of their second-round picks that they traded away for a QB like Hackenburg, who didn't work out, but then they still have their first the following year to pick Mahomes.

Which scenario would you prefer, or do you think has the best chance of producing a franchise QB for the organization? First of all, let's assume QB1(we will say Stroud) you have to trade up to #1 to get. Cost of trade up will be this year's 1st and 2nd, plus next year's 1st and 2nd and 2025 1st. Let's assume QB4(we will say Levis) has a good chance of making it to #9. So, what is more likely to produce a franchise QB? Stroud this year, or Levis and Hooker (or Tanner) this year, a 1st and 2nd round QB next year and a 1st round QB in 2025? Basically, Stroud or 5 swings at other 1st and 2nd round QBs in this year and future years. Also, if you want to make the argument you wouldn't draft QBs in back-to-back years you could draft Levis this year, then a different QB in 2025 and 2027 and you have still wasted the same number of draft picks as trading up for Stroud. Fans and organizations tend to fall in love with one guy and then convince themselves that they are 100% correct on that guy but history tells us otherwise. I've been saying for years that you have to gamble when it comes to QBs but I don't know how much. Will be very interesting to see how it plays out.

Stroud didn’t look like “Stroud vs Georgia” for most of his career either. Was that a bit of an anomaly or a glimpse of what you can expect in the future?

Down and distance might dictate the position also. Running downs he might be lined up at DE and obvious passing downs he might slide over to the middle. Also if we are a 3-4 base does that mean when we go to nickel, we might see some 3-3-5?

But Tepper is hard to work for and it might be hard to find coaches…… Not saying these guys are going to work but that narrative was so stupid. With that being said I do like the choices and I also feel like we have some people in place that should know a thing or two about QBs, which finding our long term answer at QB should be this organizations #1 goal right now.

It's not that they fall in love with the vet, they fall in love with the idea of drafting the "sure thing" non-QB in the draft. Fact is that unless you have the #1 pick in a year that has a generational type prospect (Luck or Lawrence types) there is pretty much always a non QB that feels a lot safer to a large section of any fanbase.

I think I can use common sense and not depend on reporters to form my opinions for me. It becomes easy to continue this narrative that really isn’t born in fact. It becomes low hanging fruit to take shots at a guy when a team has struggled. Name the most important things to most coaches when looking at a job from what they want out of ownership, pay, job security and leaving them alone on football decisions. He had pretty much excelled on those facets. Any qualities he might have that could be difficult to work with are probably pretty far down the list of deciding factors. Either way, the proof is in the results.

I know he isn’t the young shiny OC type that so many people wanted but you could make the argument that his resume is better than Reich’s and definitely Wilks. There is no guarantee these guys will mesh and/or the players will excel but in paper you have to appreciate the process this time.

But Tepper is hard to work for…. He overpays his coaches, he stays out of the football decisions for the most part, and he is overly patient with coaches. The narrative that he was hard to work for and his personality would be some huge hinderance to attract coaches would stupid from the start and was largely agenda based.

are you trying to win the draft or win games? sooner or later, you need a QB. Nobody is saying overreach but the fact is at some point you have to gamble some. Unless you have the top pick in a generation QB class there will almost always be better non QBs available.

I really like the hire but to keep things in perspective I decided to look at some stats from his last year and compare it to Snow's last full season. Rush yards per game Snow: 113.8, Evoro 109.8 Rush yards per attempt: Snow: 4.1, Evoro: 4.3 Pass yards per game Snow: 192, Evoro: 210.2 Points per game Snow: 23.8, Evoro: 21.1 NFL Football Stats - NFL Team Opponent Passing Yards per Game | TeamRankings.com

So pick one of the other guys. That’s my point, if you are waiting for a sure thing, it might never happen.

Whats the alternative? Sooner or later yiu have to gamble. Unless you have that #1 pick, and it just happens to be the rare year there is a Luck or Lawrence type of prospect it’s almost always a gamble. We could go more tank mode and increase our chance of what is perceived as a better prospect but that doesn’t seem to be the path they want to go. Last year you kept saying you didn’t want to gamble because this year had better prospects. I'm not saying totally waste a pick on a guy you don’t have faith in but for the most part you have to gamble sooner or later.

Know how I know I don't care you know. Doesn't change the fact of what i said. Since Tepper has been here we've made some stupid short term moves.

we've been trying to make a run at for a while now. We should be focused on finding a long-term answer at QB, then you can make a run at every year.

but they didn't, or at least relative to the rest of the league they didn't as much.

you said our personnel sucks in run support, based on what? This narrative that has been spun by misinformed fans? What metric are you actually basing that on? Because you if you look at the actual stats we are far from one of the worst teams in the league and actually in some regards we are among the best.

The irony is that both of them are a bit similar in that they are high ceiling guys in regard to physical tools. You have to ask why the production didn't always line up with the tools though. In AR's case his accuracy is really bad, but with age and lack of playing time of the position there is some hope there for improvement. With Levis you have to ask why he struggled at times? Can you blame it on the team around him, is it stuff he can still improve at this age? If all things were equal I would probably take AR at 9. If you going to gamble lets swing for the fences. Personally, I don't think both will be there at 9, I think if we stay put the board will dictate who we draft. I think the real question for the FO will be do you trade the farm to move up to 1-2 to make sure you get your guy or stay put and be ok with whoever is left of the 4. I'm leaning towards maybe staying put.

Lets look at facts: Snow's first season was 2020, our rank for yards allowed per game for 2020, 2021, and 2022 was 18th, 18th, and 18th. So pretty close to middle of the pack. BTW, 2019 which was Ron's last year we were 29th. NFL Football Stats - NFL Team Opponent Rushing Yards per Game | TeamRankings.com Yards per game can be a bit misleading, bad teams tend to give up a lot of yards per game not just because they are bad against the run but they are often behind so teams run more on them to chew clock. So, let's look at yards per attempt. For 2020-2022 we were 28th, 8th, and 12th in the league in yards allowed per attempt. Speaking of Ron, in 2019 we were 32, which is dead last in the league. NFL Football Stats - NFL Team Opponent Rushing Yards per Game | TeamRankings.com So Snow took a team, changed the formation and personnel and went from last in the league to top 10 in two years against the run, on a per rush attempt basis. I'm not saying Snow was some great DC, but this idea that his methodology and personnel decisions suddenly made us one of the worst teams in the league against the run is just flat wrong.

The problem with these questions is that none of know for sure who is really making the decision. Maybe Reddick was Rhule's idea. Maybe Fitt was actually telling Rhule that Darnold was a bad idea. I doubt any of us really know. I do know this though. Since Rhule first showed up, and even after he left with Fitt in charge we have consistently thought short term. Whether its Bridgewater, Darnold, not trading Burns, not playing the comp pick game, trading for Gilmore, and the list goes on. Being self aware might be one of the most important qualities any decision maker can have. In Fitts defense, so far he has shown two qualities that I really do like. He has shown a willingness to trade down, which over time tends to be a smart play historically speaking. Also, he seems to value positional value, which is something our last regime didn't' seem too as much. Drafting is an inexact science. Even the best miss more than they hit, but if your process is sound, there is a good chance you will be better than most.

you mean objectively?

Bias much?

In your mind it might be enough to get it done, but in the real world it won't happen and they wouldn't take it, imo.