AU-panther

There is nothing to disagree with, you are looking at cap space relative to what would have been his cap cost for this year and next if he would have stayed on the team. My post is stating how much we paid him for his one year of play. If we are really responsible for $7m this year we will spend $31m for his one year of play. $24m has already been paid to him, and it looks like we will have to pay him $7m more.

If you bypass on the QB and he turns out good you screwed up big time even if you are correct on the other position if you are current guy doesn't become the guy. There is no perfect answer here because we don't know who is going go be right. What if the LT doesn't work out, and you passed on a QB that does, that is even a bigger screw up. At the end of the day all you are doing is playing the odds. Are you willing to take a chance with a 30% QB to take a 90% LT or would you prefer to take a 60% QB to compete with your 30% QB, and yes I made all of those percentages up, but really that is all the teams are doing. The payout for being right about a QB is exponentially higher than that of any other position. Evaluating players is nothing but trying to figure their chances of success. There is a very good chance the team might be willing to take OT1 over QB3, but maybe they would take QB3 over OT2.

Looks like we are going to eat $7m of Teddy's contract this year. That would bring the total cost for 1 year of Teddy to $31m. $8m in 2020 salary, $1m in workout and game bonuses. $15m signing bonus. $7m of guaranteed salary this year we are turning into another bonus. Teddy Bridgewater Contract Details, Salary Cap Charges, Bonus Money, and Contract History | Over The Cap Also we lost a 3rd, from missing out on a comp pick, but we did get a 6th back. Hindsight is always 20/20 but fair to say it was a terrible decision.

But would we have traded with the Dolphins to 3 if the price would have been to our liking? That makes me think there are 3 QBs we like. Would we have preferred trading to up to 3 over Darnold? Which happened first? What if the player we were willing to trade up for falls to 8? Do they consider him then?

That’s what most of the other people in here are saying also. They are not saying what the team will do but what they think the team should do. Would you take Trevor with Darnold already on the team? Would you take Trevor or Wilson with Darnold already on the team? Would you take Trevor, Wilson, or Fields with Darnold already on the team? Would you take Trevor, Wilson, Lance, or Fields with Darnold already on the team? My guess is you might do the first 2. I would probably do the first 3. Some others would probably do the first 4 options. A lot of us are saying the same thing, we just have different thresholds where we change our mind.

If our coaching staff had influence in signing Teddy, maybe we should let Tepper pick the QBs. Seriously though, Idon’t think Teoler is there playing fantasy football with the team making every draft pick. Although, it would be naive to think that most owners don’t have considerable input with top-10 picks, especially if a QB is involved.

That all seems logical but one thing does make me think otherwise...maybe It’s been reported that we looked into trading up to 3. If we wanted to go to three that tells me we like QB3. Early in the process most people assumed QB1 and QB2 were doing 1 and 2 in the draft. Trading up to 3 for QB2 would have been stupid.

He might not be “just in case” but he might have been the 4th option. I think we can all agree that the team was determined to move on from Teddy. 1st option was probably Watson 2nd option was probably Stafford 3rd option was probably drafting a guy they really like. None of us know for sure who is on that list of who they really like (for sake of argument let’s say Lawrence, Wilson, and Fields). Maybe once San Fran moved up we came to the realization that the chance of one of the guys we really like being available was very small. 4th option: trade for Darnold 5th option: drafting a guy we aren’t as high on such as possible Jones or Lance Trading for Datnold shouldn’t prevent you from taking one of your better options if by the small chance they become available. Would you pass on Trevor if he he fell to 8 or Wilson? By your logic you would since you spent resources on Darnold.

Then you define clean pocket and accurate throw, watch all of his snaps and then all of the snaps of all of the other QBs and get back to me. Until then you are just arguing any stat that doesn’t agree with your wishful thinking with baseless disagreement without offering any kind of concrete stats to prove your point. Are you actually trying to say he is more accurate than most of the other QBs in the league from a clean pocket? if so I would love to see what you are basing that on.

We are talking about a stat from PFF not their grades. I understand fans thinking their grading is very subjective but a stat like this is pretty straight forward. Of course there could be a little subjectivity in defining "not under pressure" and accurate throw, but that subjectivity for the most part will be applied uniformly across the league. What really amuses me is that all of the people defending him probably really haven't' watched many of his snaps. Go back and watch coach's tape, there is plenty of times when he doesn't have pressure and his receivers are open that he just misses his guys. The "eye test" matches up with the stat I referenced. I'm not trying to totally bash him, I actually think he has talent and tools. Personally I like the trade for him more than the deal with did with Teddy. I think there is less risk and the chance for a higher reward. The fact is he is going to have to improve himself to become the QB that fans around here want him to be. Better play calling and talent around him will help but his personal play will need to improve also. Not really a hard concept to understand. Hopefully our coaching staff will help him achieve that. Also I don't think he prevents us from drafting another QB in the draft. Once Watson had the off the field issues, Stafford went to LA, and San Fran traded to 3 I think our front office realized there was a very good chance we might not get a QB we really liked in the draft or free agency and for whatever reason we were determined to move on from Teddy.

Exactly. People keep using some of the same arguments to defend Darnold, mainly the talent around him and the pressure he received, but there are stats out there that are somewhat concerning. Here is an article about some of those Why it would be a mistake for the Jets to stick with Sam Darnold | RSN (nbcsports.com) For those too lazy to read one stat the quote that makes me nervous is that Darnold, with a clean pocket, was 30th in the league in accuracy and 33rd in adjusted completion percentage. I don't care who your OC is but if you give a good QB a clean pocket you expect better than that. Honestly that does match some of what I've seen on coach's tape, I will admit I haven't watched every game of his. On the plus side, I was somewhat pleasantly surprised with his athleticism, I had not watched many Jet games before we had traded for him. Also he definitely does have some arm talent, although the interceptions are concerning. For him to successful here he is going to have to improve himself. Its not just as easy as calling better plays or putting better players around him, both of those things will help, but there is going to have to be some growth in his own game.

More times than not most of the trades are fairly close to the JJ chart. Of course sometimes a team will pay a premium, especially if a QB is involved. For example I could see Atlanta receiving a premium for the 4th pick if the draft fell a certain way. What i find interesting is that most studies that I have seen favor trading down, even with the JJ chart which as you say values top picks less. Of course there are exceptions but overall history tells us trading down is better. DG use to say he didn't want to trade a quarter for 2 dimes. In reality you are probably trading a 15 cent piece for 2 dimes.

“Best player available that helps your team win” not sure why people overthink the BPA vs need argument Also what Jimmy did well was move up and down (more often down) to chase need and also get value.

Nice work, very logical mock. Cincy goes Sewell Miami goes Pitts Pick 7 goes QB Do we go Chase or Slater I really haven't thought about Chase being there at 8, but if 5 QBs go top 8 it is a possibility.

Happened with Russel Wilson... Seriosely though, if I had to bet I would agree with you that we probably aren’t interested, but to make absolute statements is asinine at this time of year.

Or they are trying to create the illusion that they aren’t interested so other teams might not feel the need to jump ahead of us in the draft. this time of year you really don’t know for sure

When PFF says they are good or bad they are referring to relative to other teams. When you say good or bad you are referring to your personnel benchmark of what you think a good offensive line looks like. Those are two different statements. Needless to say you aren't watching every game of every team so you don't have an accurate basis for rankings but you do have enough football knowledge to feel like you team could stand to improve in an area such as pass protection. PFF saying that there are 14 teams with worse offensive lines then us based on their metric, could very well be a true statement. You saying that the Panthers have a bad offensive line based on what you think a good offensive line should should look like could also be a true statement. People have a hard time understanding what PFF is actually doing and saying. I totally agree with you that over the last decade our pass protection has been poorer than I would like, but this mindset around here that every other team is better than us is ridiculous. Fans have a bad habit of always thinking in extremes.

How did the Browns do with Joe Thomas? Creating absolute statements off of small sample sizes is pretty weak. How about this? What if you think Waddle has a 80% chance of being like Hill, but Slater only has a 60% chance of being like Bolles? Not only do you have to look at draft picks at their ceiling, and their floor, you also have to factor in the chances of them actually reaching those levels. People compare draft picks under best chance scenarios where they all reach their ceilings, which in reality really happen.

Who helps you win more games? Garrett Bolles or Tyreek Hill? Doesn’t seem so insane when you think about it like that. Full disclosure, I’m hoping for the LT also, because I think finding WRs later is easier, but I understand the argument for Waddle.

Let me preface this by saying I'm all for drafting a LT early this year, if we don't go QB, both need and value seem to be lining up well this year. Interesting exchange on twitter I saw between Daniel Jeremiah and one of the PFF guys regarding what makes a productive offensive line. We are all caught up on this idea of an LT, which is understandable considering some of our history at that position, but even upgrading some of the other positions could have a tangible benefit. Here is a follow up tweet by Steve explaining what he means by "creep back toward average" Having an elite LT by itself doesn't put points on the scoreboard, they do make it easier, but what is most important is having an overall offensive line that is good enough not to be a weakness. I'm not convinced, even if we spend pick 8 on a LT, that our line is going to automatically become one of the best in the league. Wouldn't bother me in the least if we spent multiple picks on the offensive line this year. On a side note, fans always like to measure offensive lines by sacks given up. Easy metric to notice when causally watching your team, but PFF loves to point out that sacks aren't just a offensive line stat. Often. so much more goes into a sack than just how your offensive lineman does. Your play caller, QB and receivers all factor in. Play caller: Good play calling can slow up pressure, certain systems don't need as much time. Think Brady with the Pats. QB: Recognizing pressure, calling the correct protections, throwing to correct the read, getting the ball out quick. How much easier is it to play OT for Brady? Receivers: Having a first read receiver that can consistently get open for your QB is huge. How many sacks happen after the 1st and/or 2nd read of the QB? What percentage of sacks that Cam took over his career were after his 1st read was covered? People would be surprised. Speaking of receivers, this is one reason it wouldn't shock me if Cincy did pass on Sewell and took Chase. I get the theory behind it, but I would still lean towards the OT. I'm not saying OTs are more important, that is an entirely different discussion, but they do seem a lot harder to find both in the draft and free agency. Some years you can't even buy one in free agency even if you are willing to spend the money.

but you aren't watching every other OLine for every snap of their games and I doubt anyone on this forum is. This is the problem with a fan's eye test, you are grading your team, player, or positional unit against a standard that you have created yourself, and a standard that you are only applying to your team. That gives you no context. By your standard, and you allude to this in your last paragraph, the bottom 2/3s of the league might all have "bad" Olines but that isn't what PFF is trying to say. They are ranking everyone using a standardized metric, applied uniformly ( in theory, probably not always perfect, but better than anything else) to all of the teams. As fans we think our O-line is bad, we view it in a vacuum, but in reality when compared to the rest of the league we are probably somewhere in the middle third. Fans seem to have trouble confusing the difference between subjective terms such as "good" and "bad" and rankings. If anything fans would probably understand these PFF list better if they grouped them in tiers. A typical fan thinks more like: Great: Teams 1-5 Good: Teams 5-10 Terrible: 10-32 With all that being said, for the last 10 years or so, I think it is safe to say our online has rarely been a strength of our team, but at the same time we probably haven't been as bad as a lot of people think, RELATIVE, to the rest of the league.

Saw this tweet earlier. This guy really does a good job of comparing the top QBs in this class based on data. I don't know anything about Justin Fields work ethic, or ability to process, personally I think some of that has been overblown by the media, but his ability to accurately throw a football from point A to point B is unbelievable. Easily better than anyone in this class, Trevor included . This guy actually goes on to say in a later tweet that it is one of the best profiles he has ever charted. I've gone back and forth on these QBs but if San Fran really takes Jones, and Atlanta decides to go non-QB, I would be on the phone with Cincy trying to trade up for Fields in a heartbeat.

I think fans are totally overlooking the chance we could go WR at some point in the draft. Fans tend to think in current year terms, but both Moore and Anderson are in the last year of their contracts. Even if they extend Moore you have a huge hole across from him. Also people need to remember that WR1, WR2, and WR3 are all basically starters. Good teams, the type you end up facing in the playoffs, can often take away your first option. I don't mind a WR early, I think it is a high value position, but for various reason there seems to be some really good value in the 2nd and 3rd with receivers lately, and this years class is deep again.

People need to realize that teams don't think in terms of need and just drafting the next highest ranked player. Fan's board: OT1>OT2>CB1>TE1 Teams think in terms more of grade. Teams board might be something like: OT1>TE1>CB1>OT2 or even OT1>TE1>trade down>CB1>OT2 The team could easily have Pitts and Sewell in a totally different tier than everyone else. If Pitts and Sewell are both gone I could actually see us trading down.

I am all for drafting an OT in the first if we don't go QB. I think this years class lines up very well from a value and need perspective. Also I think OTs are a good choice for 1st round picks from a positional value and importance aspect. Look at some of the contracts that OTs get in free agency. but... There are some fans here that have unrealistic expectations of offensive lines, Unless the QB has six seconds to throw on every pass, and the RB doesn't get touched until he is 5 yards downfield they think we have the worst line in the league. I'm not sure if they will every really be happy. Also people need to realize more goes into a QB pressure than just the O-line in front of him. Play calling and QB play is a huge part of it. Also receivers play a part. Having a 1st read receiver that gets open consistently helps a lot. How many sacks happen before the 1st read? How many after? Here again, I'm not saying we shouldn't draft one. If anything this definitely looks like the year we should. There are a couple of guys that look to be good value at 8. There are a few more that might be good value with our second round pick, this class seems deeper than most.