AU-panther

If you watch tape is can be easy to get excited about some of the tools that Sam does have. He definitely can make some throws and he is more athletic than some think. I'll be honest though, some of this stats from clean pockets is a bit concerning, at that point you lose the bad o-line excuse. You give a really good QB a clean pocket, and I don't care who the play caller is I'm guessing they are going to make good things happen also. With Brady calling plays and our skill positions players I expect him to play better. Only question is will he play good enough to warrant a franchise contract. The worst thing that can happen is for him to play just good enough for us to overpay.

Best case, Cameron Erving has a career year at tackle, Moton continues to play well, Christensen excels at one of the guard spots, and the other two spots play decent. Realistically: Outside of Moton we have a line full of guys that we are hoping play considerable better than recent history would suggest. Same thing we hoped for when we signed Kalil. More times than not that is a losing proposition. One posititive though is I think Brady's system can be somewhat friendly to O-lines.

And this is why you don’t believe every report you read....

People read headlines like this and complain about their rankings but they don't even take the time to read the article. It wasn't a ranking based on their grading system. It was a subjective piece by one of their writers looking at WR/TE groups as a WHOLE. Most of the time when someone complains about PFF its due to the fact they didn't really understand what they are commenting on.

fair point, I should have said "added" not replaced. We still have the TE (Thomas) that really didn't do much at all last year in the passing game. Either way it was a opinion piece based on the WR and TE groups as a whole, so honestly i can see us being middle third based on past history. Maybe Arnold gets more opportunity, maybe Tremble plays great as a rookie, maybe Marshall plays great as a rookie, maybe all of that happens and we are top-5 or 10. Honestly I think there is a decent chance we use CMC a good bit in the passing game, and therefore some of our WR and TE numbers might appear disappointing to some of our fans.

Before getting so upset people might want to actually try reading the article. Its not a ranking based on last years grades. Its an opinion piece by one of their writers that is looking at WR/TE groups as a whole, and he even states that depth is a huge factor in his rankings. He even states that based on grade we had the 8th ranked unit last year. Also states that with Moore and Anderson we have one of the better one-two punches in the league. Also sates that we have some pieces to be one of the better units this year. With all that being said the fact is we lost our WR3 last year who we replaced with a 2nd rounder and a cheaper vet (Moore) and we didn't really get much out of the TE position last year, which we replaced with a 3rd rounder who isn't really known for his pass catching and cheaper vet (Arnold).

Unless something crazy happens Moton and Erving are going to be your tackles this year. Just look at the contracts. I would love for Christenson to become one of the best LTs in the league but you have to be realistic. How many good LTs are there actually in the league? 10-12 How old are some of them? late 30s How many have of them have been drafted in the last 10-15 years? 100-200 The fact is the odds are against him. Honestly the team knows that and that is why they just didn't chase need at LT. They probably felt really good about Sewell and after that not so much. That is why you didn't see a Slater or Darrisaw pick. Even if he becomes a good LT, I could see him staring as a back up or guard. Honestly if he becomes an above average guard its a good pick. If he becomes a decent swing tackle its a good pick. 3rd round picks are cheap. I'm just not convinced he is going to fulfill everyone's wish for that elite LT. Next to QB LT is probably the hardest position to fill. Even if you want to spend a high pick or big money in free agency there is no guarantee you are going to find one. Even positions like edge and WR there are usually some sure things in free agency if you are willing to spend. The same really can't be said about LTs, there just isn't many of them considered elite.

When reports start getting specific about the amount of trade capital (1st rounder) and expected time (next week) it sometimes can be the team looking to trade the player trying to create interest. I’m not saying that is the case all of the time but definitely sometime. I’m thinking a second, but as others have said maybe a first from a really good team who expects to be picking late in the round.

People get caught up talking about starting and contributing. Depending on your current players a bad player can come in and start or play a decent amount of snaps. A rookie that is playing at a replacement level isn't helping your team much more than a vet playing at the same level on a cheap contract. As KB_fan pointed out very few rookies truly play better than an average player and to expect otherwise is unrealistic. Just because he plays a lot of snaps doesn't mean he played well. The best way to really evaluate a draft class is to wait two years and ask yourself honestly how many of the players you drafted are really playing above replacement level.

I swear some people don't even read the articles then they comment on said articles. The focus isn't about which players help a team more from a production standpoint, that would be more based on something like WAR (wins above replacement), they are looking at cap value. Since everyone is trying to turn this into a Darnold vs Fields vs Horn type of argument lets take the QB out of the example. Lets use LT and RB. LTs are the second most valuable position based on the metric they use. They basically looked at the median price of non rookie contracts since 2014. The yearly cost of the #8 pick is around $5.3m. The yearly cost of the median contract of LTs is $14.7m. The yearly cost of the median contract of RBs is $3.08m. If you draft a LT and he turns out average its still a decent pick in some ways. If you draft a RB and he turns out average you are wasting money. I'm not saying the article is the be all strategy for drafting but some of the logic is sound. I said it before the draft, one reason I like drafting tackles early is they are so expensive in free agency. Would you prefer to flip a coin for $3 or $15? With a QB the difference is even higher. If anything the article presents a very good case for us drafting a OT instead of Horn, which a lot of people around here wanted. If you want to talk about which players contribute more to winning, then that would be a different article probably based on something like WAR but this was most cost based.

Just based on scheme (a lot of quick passes) we might feel less inclined to spend considerable resources on the O-line. I'm not saying it is the correct call, but fact is both last year with our first pick, and several times in this years draft there have been OTs availed that probably were rated fairly high at given draft spots. Fans have this idea that LTs help your team exponentially more that any other non-QB position, I just don't think a lot of teams think the same way.

I agree with you that I'm not a fan of chasing exceptions. Its a dangerous slope that usually ends up being a losing gamble. My only point was I don't think his draft position was the reach that alot of fans thought. In regards to the rest of the draft class I agree with your POV. Rookie DBs struggle, look at Okuda and Henderson last year. OTs often struggle, let alone one from the 3rd round, who might end up being a guard anyway. How many good LTs are there in the league? 10-12. Some of which are in their late 30s. So in the last 15 years the league has only found 10-12 but we found one in the 3rd round? I hope so but we have to be realistic. I actually feel the best about Marshall, for whatever reason WRs seem to transition a little better recently. Also he is going to be asked to be the 2nd or 3rd option. Darnold I'm rooting for, but honestly players are usually what they are by this time in this career. He definitely has tools, and I think he will be set up better for success here. My big fear is he improves just enough for us to pay him a big contract but not really be elite.

I’m not saying he is going to work out but I’m not sure if you can consider him an outlier if he got drafted close to where some teams had him ranked.

I’m not convinced our staff views the idea of a “franchise” left tackle in the same regard as the fan base, and to be honest a lot of organizations don’t. There have been several points in the last 2 drafts we could have drafted OTs in appropriate spots and decided not to.

It is pretty clear that a lot of the people criticizing the article either didn’t read it or don’t understand it.

Think about how many LTs are in the league that fans would actually consider good, 8-12? Think about how old some of them are, mid to late 30s. Think about all of them that have been drafted in the past 12 to 14 years. My guess is we will have a middle of road O-line, fans will think it is the worst, our offensive system will help some.

People severely underestimate how much an elite QB can do for a team. I know he is getting older but you are still talking 4-5 years of being a legit super bowl contender every year, something this organization has never really been.

I've come to expect very absolute statements from you on very broad topics.

here again, you are thinking too black and white. We aren't talking about the owner doing player evaluation, but if an owner comes in and gives the coach a 6 year deal and says build the team for long term success that is ok. Our moves last year were not long term anything.

football knowledge isn't the same as setting the direction for a organization.

This ^ Owners set direction, and honestly most owners are heavily involved in huge trades and top picks, especially if QBs are involved. What you don't want is some owner who doesn't know anything about player evaluation treating it as his fantasy team and making all of the draft picks, but there is no indication that Tepper is that.

lol You are so literal about everything. If some GM that you aren't sure about, for example Hurney, is about to go off and sell the farm for somebody. You stop it. You might fire him later, but there is nothing wrong with pulling rank.

If we miss on Teddy and Sam, somebody is going to be upset. Also it isn't always about evaluating players. It can be setting a direction. You can have an owner who forces a front office to think short term or in some cases long term. Would we have been better not signing Teddy last year? Did we make moves indictive last year of a team on a long term plan? no There is nothing wrong with a owner stepping in and preventing a GM or coach from thinking too short term and sabotaging the future. If you are a GM that might be on the hot seat what incentive do have to think long term. You try to win now to save your job, if that doesn't work then you leave your replacement with less resources so it is harder for him to do a better job than you.

If Darnold doesn't work out we might want the owner to start meddling a little bit.

O-line philosophy: If you find a good tackle pay him, just pay him. In the meantime every other year or so draft a good tackle prospect in an early round. This way you are only paying big money to one at a time. Your interior spots keep filled with mid to late round draft picks, or vets who are cap casualties. Every year there seems to be some good, vet guards who get cut by their current teams. Fact is you can't afford to pay all 5 spots.