AU-panther

Sometimes doing nothing is the best move, I'm just not convinced that is the course we will take.

For those saying RR, he had prime Cam for 9 years and never had back to back winning seasons. For that to be true one of those two has to be severely overrated.

so, you sacrifice a year for the fans and the other 52 players on the team to prove a point to Rhule? If you feel that strongly you should have fired him already. I do agree though that if Tepper I'm not going to let him do something drastic such as spending a bunch of draft capital to move up or to overpay for a QB in free agency, but if there is a logical upgrade I'm not going to forego it just to prove a point.

You actually make a good point, look at the past 10 drafts and when we picked, how many chances did we really have for a QB. You can't really count Herbert because he went before us, no idea how much a trade up would have been. We could have had Lamar or Mahomes or Watson, but there are plenty of years where we really not in a position to take a QB that has turned out to be good. This is why this idea of building a team and finding a QB when it is convenient is laughable QBs are the hardest part of the puzzle to find, if you think you have a chance to draft one you like you do it.

Jet fans probably said the same thing about hoping to get something in a trade for him. Maybe its not resigning Sam, but signing some midlevel vet. The point is still the same, for all the people hoping to wait a year to draft a QB. We could potentially improve the team enough where we don't' end up drafting a QB in 2023.

The general consensus is that none of these guys will be as highly rated as Burrow as a prospect. In simple terms none of them will have a "grade" as high as Burrow for the vast majority of teams. With that being said Burrow does help to show how all of the "Ceiling and Floor" talk can be a bit overplayed by fans. There is more to being a QB than how far you can throw a ball or how fast you can run. This isn't Madden.

Even if you don't buy resigning Sam you could easily replace his name with some random "mid level" FA QB.

That is a valid thought. You could make the argument that if he plays well this year and stays healthy his trade value might go up a little but that is extremely risky. At this point teams could convince themselves that his recent injuries are just bad luck. If he gets hurt again I think teams will view him totally different and value could tank considerably like you stated. Also the longer you wait the older he is and that is never good for a RB. Also the longer you wait the closer his contract is to the end so a team would have to pay him market price which would be considerable if he is playing well. As it stands right now his contract for a new team would only be 4yrs/44m which almost none guaranteed. That is actually a selling point.

For all those that want OL instead of QB, which is a valid thought, what if: We draft a LT that plays well his first year BC moves to guard and plays well Our new OL coach, who has a great reputation, helps improve the rest of the line. Our WR core plays up to their potential. CMC comes back healthy and stays that way. Our new OC helps Sam improve. Horn comes back healthy. The other young guys on defense continue to improve. We go 9-8 and Tepper decides to keep Rhule and we Resign Sam Sometimes you have to be careful what you wish for in life. Honestly by being greedy and waiting to get a new QB we actually might increase our chances of not getting a rookie QB at all.

fair point, but the way I look at it is that if I trade him now I save a total of $12.8m over two years that I can spend on the OL that might help said young QB more. Also I have a draft a pick that I can use to further help said young QB.

i get what you are saying about not being able to replace CMC for 6m this year, but then you save $17.7m next year since you ate all of the cap hit this year. Would you prefer CMC for the next two years or an extra $13.5m in cap space for the next two years plus potential draft picks. Also would you give up $4.2m for an extra 1st rounder this year? 2nd rounder? 3rd rounder? All the June 1st talk can get confusing for fans so sometimes this best way to decide if a deal is smart or not is to look at the total cost. If we trade CMC this year his total cap hit will be $18.5m. (either spread or not) If we keep CMC this year and then trade him next his 2022 cap hit will be 14.3m (2022 cap hit) plus 12.8m dead money cap hit in 2023 for a total of $27.1m. If we keep CMC the next two years and then trade him in 2024 his cap hit will be 14.3m(2022 cap hit) plus $17.7m (2023 cap hit) plus $7.1 (remaining dead money) for a total of $38.5m. So here are your choices: Trade CMC this year for a total cap cost of $14.3m and hope to get picks. Let CMC play one more year then trade him in 2023 for a total cap cost of $27.1m. Let CMC play two more years then trade him in 2024 for a total cap cost of $38.5m. When you factor in that there isnt a very good chance we aren't going to be that good this upcoming year it makes a lot of financial sense to go ahead and trade him.

and exactly how is that wrong? Christian McCaffrey Contract Breakdowns, Salary Cap Figures, Salaries, Bonuses | Spotrac click the red x to the right of the 2022 year and it will clearly list the cap implications for the different cut and trade scenarios

wrong cutting and trading a player have different cap implications. CMC's cap hit this year if he plays: $14.3m CMC's cap hit if cut before June 1st: $26.6m (12.3m loss in cap space) CMC;s cap hit if traded before June 1st: $18.5m (4.2m loss in cap space) Part of that 26.6m in dead money that your reference is $8.1m in guaranteed salary for this upcoming year, guaranteed salary can be traded and most likely the next team would account for. If we trade him after June 1st the numbers change even more CMCs cap hit this year if traded after June 1st: $5.7m, which would be a 2022 cap savings of $8.7m. Of course that would leave a cap hit of $12.8m for 2023, but that would actually be less then the $17.7m if he played in 2023. Christian McCaffrey Contract Breakdowns, Salary Cap Figures, Salaries, Bonuses | Spotrac click on the red arrow to the right of the 2022 year and spotrac will break all of this down for you.

that's a very vague question.....

Usually fans overestimate what their own players are worth but we might actually be understimated what CMC would get. You have to remember you don't trade a player, you trade their contract. Everyone keeps talking about his massive contract but honestly its massive for us because we paid a huge signing bonus and have already restructured it once. A team that trades for him will only be responsible for his yearly salary, of which only 8.1m of it is gaurenteed and all of that is this year. They would basically be paying for a pay as you go contract. Christian McCaffrey Contract Breakdowns, Salary Cap Figures, Salaries, Bonuses | Spotrac If they keep him for 1 year it would a 8.4m contract. 2 years it would be 20.2m for two years, so only $10.1m for each year. If they keep him for all four it will only work out to $11m a year. $11m a year isn't a bad contract for an elite playmaker, just remember Robby's cap hit will be $16.8m Also if he gets hurt they are only on the hook for the guaranteed salary this year. Is there a contending type of team out there that would give a 2nd for CMC for $8m? Someone like the BIlls or Chiefs? What about the Cardinals or Packers? Might make Rodgers or Murry happy/

I doubt it, for the most part teams stay really close to the chart. It would be embarrassing not to. About the only time you see a team overpay somewhat is to move up for a coveted QB.

If we trade him pre June 1st we would lose about $4.2m in cap space, not sure if I would call that cap suicide. If we trade him after June 1st we would actually save about $8.6m in cap space this year.

I agree, alot of times moving back is harder than people think. Honestly, I think this year's draft will have more teams looking to move back than normal. Its not a top-heavy class but overall, there is some depth in the first round, that along with a weak QB class I think we see a lot of teams trying to move down. In regard to fair offer, depending on how far we move down a 2nd can easily be fair. Going from 6 to 10 would get you a later 2nd.

unless you know where you are trading back to its a bit ridiculous to complain about compensation. 2022 NFL Trade Value Chart (drafttek.com) unless it's some crazy move for a QB more times than not the trade value chart will get in you in the ballpark

Has Tepper actually said anything to indicate he likes Pickett the most out of this QB class or are we just playing connect the dots with the Pitt connection?

There is a difference between keeping a secret for Derrick Brown, who we had a pretty good idea nobody else was taking before us and keeping a secret about a QB that multiple teams might be interest in. 2020 everyone expected Okuda, Young, and Burrow before us. Most expected OT1 to go before us. That leaves two spots and you also had Tua and Herbert in the draft, so Brown being there wasn't a surprise to anyone. Maybe we did keep a secret, maybe we liked Herbert a lot and was hoping he fell. 2021 most smart people expected QB1, QB2, and QB3 to go before us. Pitts and Chase were both considered elite prospects also expected to go before us. That leaves three spots to us and from what everyone said we really liked Sewell and Horn. Very safe to expect one of them to be there at 8.

The more I hear about us drafting Pickett the more I think we aren’t.

2022 NFL Draft: Pros and cons for PFF's top five quarterbacks | NFL Draft | PFF Not a super deep analytical article or anything, but some might find it interesting that Howell is actually their #1 QB. Howell definitely has arm talent, and the mobility he showed this year is a plus. A negative that I keep seeing about him is that he doesn't seem to go through progressions much and can he operate in that intermediate range? You have to ask yourself is that because he can't or because the system or his teammates didn't afford him that opportunity. What type of system he goes to might greatly decide how quickly he progresses at the NFL level? Also some might find it interesting that Pickett is QB4 on their list. It's pretty clear that being a one-year wonder is a major concern to them. Also, I think this idea that he some super low floor QB with a noodle arm is a bit wrong. He might not have an elite arm, (think Cam Newton, but most QBs don't) but he has an NFL level arm. I would be more worried about his time to throw, is that because he is slow to process or because he knows he has that luxury? Can he speed up if needed? If he plays for us he is going to have to speed up.

Linderbaum actually makes me a bit nervous. I've read that he is somewhat scheme dependent, what if we get a new coach down the road who runs a different scheme. Do you want to be scheme dependent at pick 6? The size has to be somewhat of a concern. At the college level the size difference between him and the DL wasn't as great as it will be in the NFL, that next tier of opponent can sometimes be the ceiling and why you see great college players struggle at the next level. Its like when a great college power forward who is 6'7 struggles in the NBA. In college on a given night he might be bigger or the same size as his opponent, occasionally he might go against someone bigger but in the NBA almost every night he is. With a top 6 pick I'm looking for great tape and perfect measurables, I'm trying to reduce all of the risk I can.

I want to like Fitts but I find it hard to believe that Rhule found Sam, Elflein, and Erving all on his own. Very likely that they decide on what they need then the GM finds guys he thinks would work and then Rhule has final say. It's not like Fitts is going to present a guy that he doesn't think will work. Without being a fly on the wall it might be difficult to give a fair assessment of Fitts.