grimesgoat

I think we need some perspective. It's not like 30 other teams have kyle shanahan clones and we are the only team with a shitty coaching tree. We've had our moments. We are average. We've always been average. Our winning percentage since 2000 is 17th in the league. But what is interesting to me is that we are 12th in the league in winning percentage against the spread (193 - 183 - 9). Just a bunch of overachievers. We've hit a rough patch. We have a new coach, a stud DC, and a boatload of draft picks. We're on our way. Let's enjoy.

Don't tell anyone this, especially Luvu, but he is severely underpaid. If your argument is we can significantly underpay someone else to play for us, then I say good luck with that. We are in good shape with LBs in a 3-4. Burns, Luvu, Shaq, Barno, Smith, Haynes, Chinn, and maybe Mosby. I am really high on Barno and Haynes in this configuration and hope they can get significant snaps. If Shaq's production flags in this new scheme, then we cut him next year and save 8m. I was wrong in my original post - the cap hits in 2024 and 2025 are 16m each, not 18m, which probably doesn't make a difference for you. I think what we need are more DL and a FS. I'd spend a 2nd on DL and our 3rd on a FS and hope they will be ready for heavy rotation by the time the season starts.

I think LBs are good with Burns, Barno, Haynes, Luvu, Shaq, Chinn, and Smith. Add Horn, Henderson, Jackson, STO, Taylor, and Woods into the mix and secondary looks ok. I like Brown and McCall but YGM is too small for the line and may be the odd man out. I like Mazie or Tuipolutu in the late second and a free safety in the third. I'd save our 1st and early second for the offense, Grab 2 of QB, WR, and TE.

Dude had 135 tackles and is the leader of our defense. Extend him 3 years, 36m. 2023 12m bonus, 2024 12m salary, 2025 12m salary. Saves 8 m in cap in 2023. Cap hit in 2024 is 18m or if cut 8m dead. Cap hit in 2025 is 18m or if cut 4m dead.

I'd be ok with Carr at a reasonable price - maybe 30m bonus, 60 total. Cap hit of 10m in 2023 and 25m in 2024 and 2025 with an out in 2025 of 10 dead. We need to develop Corral. I'm not on board with just trashing a guy we really liked just because we snagged him in the third round instead of the top 5. Use the 9th to get a stud WR and one of the 2nds on a TE and I guarantee we win 11 and host a playoff game.

shaq is due to make around 14m this year (cash). Extend him 2 years and 35m with 15m bonus. Annual salary in 2024 and 2025 are 10m each with 2025 unguaranteed. He makes 15m cash in 23 (the 15m is spread over 3 years for cap purposes). The 2023 cap hit drops to 16 (saving 8m). 2024 and 2025 cap hits are 15m each (10m salary, 5m prorated bonus). He can be cut in 2025 with a savings of 10m and dead cap hit of 5m. I think his production and leadership is definitely worth 15m per year.

Just to be fair, we also got a fifth, that Fitt turned into Brandon Smith and Amare Barno. Jury's still out on those two, but I think they are keepers and good depth. Both could be solid starters by their third year if we can develop them.

hey - what stats are you using to show the defense got worse? Points per game went from 24.4 to 21.0. Yds per snap went from 4.88 to 3.61. Turnovers per game did not change. Curious as to what stats you are using...

I went back and looked at that Cardinals year. He won 3 games and lost 4 games by 3 points or less. Their QB was a top 10 rookie who managed 11tds and 14 ints with a QBR of 24.3. He was out of the league within 3 years. The next year - with a new coach and shiny new #1 QB, they managed 5 wins. I would give very little weight to his head coaching experience in AZ, other than on-the-job learning.

Just to close the loop on this - Signing Bozeman for a 3 year, 36m contract may look something like this... Salary Bonus Cap hit 1 4 5 11 4 15 12 4 16 He gets 12 million up front and his salary in year 1 is 1m. He earns 13 million in year 1. His bonus is spread over the term of the contract. Salary in years 2 and 3 are unguaranteed, so he can be cut with significant cap savings if something goes wrong. Dead cap hit in year 2 is 8m. Dead cap hit in year 3 is 4m. Burns is due to make 17m next year. A restructure/extension could be 5/125 with a signing bonus of 30m. It could look like this... Salary Bonus Cap hit 2 6 8 22 6 28 22 6 28 24 6 30 25 6 31 95 30 125 Burns earns 32m in 2023 instead of 17m, but the cap hit goes from 17m to 8m. We save 9m on 2023 cap.

Burns and DJ restructures save us money in 2022. Signing Bozeman won't cost much as the salary cap hits are back loaded. Darnold may cost 3-4m. I'm also assuming Wilson and Elf are cut - freeing up another 8m or so. The rest is just coaches and draft picks, which will not impact salary cap in a meaningful way.

Wilks hired as HC. Reich hired as OC. Bozeman resigned. Darnold given 1 year deal. Burns extended. DJ restructured. Shaq kept. Levis drafted at 9. TE and Edge in 2nd. RB in 3rd. LB and S in 4th. OL in 5th.

There are a lot of moving parts. I think Young and Stroud will both be gone, but I don't believe Atlanta or Vegas takes Levis. I could see Tennessee at 11 or the Jets at 13 moving up for a QB (even though the Jets may be gun shy from the Wilson experiment). We know Fitterer will sign someone in FA - because you can't go into the draft with just Matt Corral on the roster. We should give Corral a chance to develop - see if anything is there - but not totally count on it. If Levis is sitting there at 9, I'd take him - but no way I trade up. If Levis is gone, I go Edge or WR. Who knows, maybe we sign Tyrod Taylor, roll with Corral, trade back with the Jets for an extra second, and end up with Mayer and 3 seconds. That might be fun.

I know. I think they can interview him in the next week or so. If they like what they see, they will have to wait until Eagles' season is over, which could be as early as Jan. 23, but probably later. It will be interesting to see if he gets an interview.

My prediction... They will try for Steichen. Wilks is the fallback option. But Wilks will have to hire Reich as OC. He'll keep Holcomb as DC.

Not yet.

I feel like Smith and Goff are both better options than Levis. (Stroud and Young will go to Indy and Houston). Especially if you could use the pick for a stud in another place of need. Imagine adding Quentin Johnson to Detroit or adding Myles Murphy to Seattle.

Given that we basically were knocked out of the playoffs by giving up 3 long passes to Mike Evans should have clued you in to the fact we need a shutdown corner. Horn is a shutdown corner. He was the right pick. Getting hurt in tackle football is just bad luck.

You gotta factor in the 20+ fumbles too. And the 14 losses. Frankly, with Rhule as coach, I doubt Fields develops into anything here. We signed Darnold before the draft, so it would have been awhile before he had his chance. He's been so inconsistent I'm sure there would be a revolving door with Darnold and PJ. His stats would never transfer here.

Houston will take Young. Indy will take Stroud. We will sign a vet before the draft (probably Darnold). We will stand pat and choose between Levis and Quentin.

28. Jared Verse EDGE Florida State 39. John Michael Schmitz OC Minnesota 128. Luke Musgrave TE Oregon State 139. Kenny McIntosh RB Georgia 2024 TEN 1st 2024 WAS 1st 2024 DET 1st 2024 DEN 1st

If Harbaugh comes, I think Darnold is gone. We stay put and pick Levis. DE and TE in round 2. RB in round 3. We compete in every game and finish with 7 wins. 2024/2025: back to back winning seasons.

well said. I too wonder about the mental health of some folks on here. When fantasy football first started, you had to really dig to get info. Being successful took a lot of research and smarts. Now, everything is at your fingertips and it seems so much easier. People don't understand all the scouting research, financial planning, risk assessment, and plain old luck that goes into putting a real team together.

lol - how much cheese is too much cheese?