grimesgoat

I wasn't cherry-picking. As I said, my list includes HOF or Near-HOF QBs drafted very high that had won championships. I tossed the guys that got to sit a few years as I see that as a big advantage. If you can think of other examples, i'll be glad to add them to the list. More recent guys - Stafford's first 3 years are similar (60% completion %, 7,840 yds, 37 ints) while Alex Smith's are significantly worse (54% completion rate and a 19/31 td-to-int. ratio.). Cam, Luck and Matt Ryan had good years immediately, but they haven't won the big one. Sam Bradford had very similar numbers (58% completion, 45/34 td-to-int ratio), but he was always running for his life and getting hurt. Again, the point was not to compare him to everyone - just similarly situated peers that started out on lousy teams, had mediocre numbers for 3 years, but over time, figured it out. He may end up in that category - but its too early to tell.

I figured you might say that. But the pass attempts are very similar. The overall average is 30 per game. Darnold averaged 32 per game. Namath 36, Griese 28, Elway 31, Aikman 28, etc. These older guys were still slinging it. I think the confusion centers around the term "bust". I think of a bust as a final grade. A guy that never lived up to his draft spot. You seem to suggest he's a bust until he's not - but I don't want to put words in your mouth. I think the QB position is unique and difficult and takes many years to become competent at it. Especially these days where the offensive and defensive concepts/schemes are so much more difficult. I look to a QB to work hard and get better. I would never label anyone a bust they have had a fair opportunity to succeed.

Dude. I always read and appreciate your posts. But you have to get off this whole Darnold is a bust/reclamation project. He's been in the league 3 years. QB is a tough job. that takes more than 3 years to become really good at it. I took a look at several QBs' first 3 year stats and compared them to Darnold. I limited the comparison to first round picks that played right away, won championships and became franchise QBs, many HOFs. These are some of the greatest QBs to ever play. This does leave some all-time greats out, such as Rogers, Young, Staubach and Kelly - who all got to watch a few years before they were thrown into the fire, plus Marino who never won anything. I included Brees despite the fact he did get to sit and watch his rookie year. Other than Peyton Manning, the numbers are extraordinary similar to Darnold's. No one would say these guys are busts. QB Dft. # Age Games Comp Att % Yds Yds/Game td int sk Namath 1st 22 36 654 1,302 50% 9,606 267 63 70 - Griese 4th 22 34 473 938 50% 6,173 182 46 50 - Bradshaw 1st 22 41 433 899 48% 5,556 136 31 58 87 Elway 1st 23 40 664 1,244 53% 8,152 204 47 52 90 Aikman 1st 23 38 618 1,055 59% 7,082 186 31 46 90 P Manning 1st 22 48 1,014 1,679 60% 12,287 256 85 58 56 Roethlisburger 11th 22 41 644 1,032 62% 8,519 208 52 43 99 Brees 3rd 22 28 540 909 59% 5,807 207 29 31 47 E Manning 1st 23 41 690 1,276 54% 8,049 196 54 44 66 Darnold 3rd 21 38 729 1,219 60% 8,097 213 45 39 98 Average 3rd 22 39 646 1,155 56% 7,933 205 48 49 79 Although Darnold's numbers are consistent with the averages of these great QBs, a couple of other things jumped out at me: 1. He was the youngest starting out. 2. He was sacked more than anyone, suggesting his OL sucked. 3. His completion % was actually much higher than the overall average. 4. All of these guys (including Peyton) threw more INTs than games played (Darnold was right at 1 per game). Look - we know he was under the microscope in NY and had a shortage of help from his coaching and supporting cast. His numbers are consistent with a guy picked early by a team bad enough to pick early. The next 2 years will show how good he can be. Its just waaaaay to early to call him a bust or reclamation project. He has just as good of a chance to become a franchise QB as Fields or anyone else.

In addition to the better supporting cast here (offense and coaching), our much improved defense will help immensely. Its nice for a QB to know he doesn't have to be perfect to win games. Takes a little pressure off. 2021 Darnold Stats Completion %: 60% Yards: 4,000 TDs: 30 INTs: 12 Rushing Yards: 300 Rushing TDs: 4 Wins: 9

Not damaged goods, lol. But anyone can get hurt - this is football. Let’s say CMC has to enter the concussion protocol and misses 3 games. You want to rely on a jag? A luxury pick is drafting a kicker with a kicker on the roster for “competition”. Nailing down a solid backup for possibly your most important weapon on the team is just smart (imho). I was selecting Chuba in almost every mock I did. Makes perfect sense to me. We’ll agree to disagree.

CMC’s backup started 10+ games last year.

Nixon is nice. Solid rotation piece. Now grab Smith or Brown at OG at 166 and we may have the most productive draft in our history.

Nixon please. Can’t believe he’s still out there.

4th and later is where we pick up our backups. These are important players. Just because Hurney didn’t take it seriously does not mean we can’t start now. i have a feeling Rhule and Fitt may be better talent evaluators than the last crew. They may have better luck finding contributors after the Hurneys of the world stop go home.

I doubt Tepper gave him a 7-year contract and said 'you better win by year 2 or you're out of here'. Does anyone remember what a poo show we were at the end of rivera's reign? Its a miracle we won 5 games last year.

Agree. I actually like Eiflein a lot I think he plays LG this year and slides over to C next year. If Moerig is there you have to take him. Otherwise slide back and grab Grant. Go T in third, At this point, i don't think there is a rookie LT that is ready to start day 1 anyway, but there are some guys that will be ready by mid-season. The defense is starting to look nasty.

Saints are trying to pressure us to move up for sewell and waste draft capital. No way they can move up that far.

If it's not us, it will be someone else. I want in on the trade-rape.

If Sewell is somehow there, he is the pick. If we trade back, we select Vera-Tucker.

If he's decent, he'll help us and then net a good comp pick next year. There is going to be a ton of money out there next year and he will get paid by someone. It's like getting a CB1 for a year plus an extra 3rd.

Getting Gilmore suddenly makes our defense nasty. Then let him walk next year and cash in that 3rd round comp pick. With 15, you could still probably get Darrisaw, Slater, or Vera-Tucker. Then grab a slot WR in the second, Grant in the 3rd, Davis Mills and a G in the 4th, and RB in the 5th. I might even try to convert some of this year's 6ths to 2022 5ths. If Darnold is decent, I think this puts us in the playoffs.

No guarantee that the same deal would be available after the draft. Boils down to this... 1. Keep Teddy. Cap hit is 23m in 2021 and plus 5m dead in 2022 assuming he's cut after the season. 2. Cut Teddy Now. Cap hit is 20m. No pain in 2022. Save 3m. 3. Trade Teddy. Cap hit is 17m . No pain in 2022. Save 6m and get a early 6th. You take option 3 all day long.

Not sure if that was directed at me. I just followed the link and listened to this on youtube. If this was "first take", that's news to me. I've never seen first take (until now I guess?). Since you asked, I mostly read. Don't watch a lot of TV, listen to the radio, or own a CB. Since the link was provided, I thought I'd give it a fair listen since the guy is a legit ex-QB who does this for a living as opposed to some message board hack. Still trying to understand your point. Is Simms opinion less worthy because he presented them on this "first take" show?

I listened to almost all of it. I think he's got a lot of it right - especially the first 7. If we snag WFTs first, second and 2022's first and maybe some change, I'd be on board with the trade. And with a deep T draft and an extra 2nd this year, It's not crazy to roll the dice on possibly the best cb in the class given our needs. I'd probably take slater, then Stokes/Newsome with our second, then Grant with Washington's second.

it was tongue and cheek, but i am an actuary. its what i do.

Stirs is an optimist. My numbers say there is a 59.2% chance he is gone. 45.6% chance he goes to the bengals. If he slips past the bengals, I give the lions a 25% chance of selecting him. So there is a 41.2% chance he is there and I assume we would select him at 8. The only caveat is if Denver is worried about NE giving us a bid for a QB that is too good to pass up and they offer us a 3rd or something to switch places. Then I assume we pick him 9th. If anyone would like to see my math, let me know.

good stuff.

I think it will be Sewell / Grant. But could be Pitts/Leatherwood.