grimesgoat

In all likelihood, we will pay 11.5m spread over 3 years. That will not kill us. Someone actually complained they'd rather have Reddick, as if signing Thomas takes Reddick off the table. Look I get the production issue. Arnold wasn't brought here to be a blocker. We paid 3m hoping for 40-400. They think Thomas can give them something better if used (i.e. throw him the ball more than 1-2 times a game), plus he can block. In 2018, when Olsen was hurt, Thomas put up 25-240 in the last 5 games. Olsen was healthy in 2019 so he didn't get the looks, then in 2020-21 we never threw to the TEs. If McAdoo's offense uses the TEs as pass catchers, I fully expect 45 catches and 400-500 yards. That money will look all right if that happens. If he doesn't hit those targets, then we'll know we overpaid. Let's see it play out.

From what I read, I think it breaks down like this... Year 1: 6m bonus (2m per year) + 1m salary (guar) for a cap hit = 3m. Year 2: 0m bonus (2m per year) + 4m salary (1m guar) for a cap hit = 6m, Savings if cut = 1m (5m dead) Year 3: 0m bonus (2m per year) + 5m salary (0m guar) for a cap hit = 7m, Savings if cut = 5m (2 dead) The pearl-clutching about 5.5m per year is a myth. He is probably worth 3m in 2022. No one would come here for less, we don't have the draft capital to replace him, and we don't want to net out a comp pick if possible. He may be worth the 6m in 2023 if Mcadoo is right. He is likely to be cut in year 3 for the 5m in cap savings.

Philly has a boatload of picks this year, so it may make sense for them to consolidate somewhat. A more realistic trade with Philly might be 6 for 15, 51, 83, 123. This is a slight premium for us according to the trade chart. They keep 3 first rounders and still have 4 day 3 picks. It allows us to grab an instant starting guard in the first and some flexibility with a 2nd, 3rd, and an extra 4th. If 51 is too late for one of our targets, we may be able to slide up a little in the second by dangling one of our 4ths. Cine, Strong or Petit-Frere could all be in play around 51 and would probably all start for us.

If Thiboudeaux, Stingley, Gardner, or Hamilton are still there at 6 - they may want to move up. They can't get any of those guys at 15.

We really got a good deal on Bouye. If we re-sign Gilmore or Jackson, I bet they try to move him. Could be worth a 5th and saves us 3.5m. No one will touch Anderson. He'll never be worth the money we paid, but cure the dropsies and he's a decent weapon. What a bad extension that was. Cutting Fox saves 3m. Good luck finding someone comparable for that amount. We are already losing Reddick and Jones so can't see him going anywhere. Erving is a decent swing T. Saves 2m to cut (4.5m dead). It will be tough to find a vet swing T for 2m. Probably ride with him another year. Better OL coach should help here. Daley - No way we pay 2.5m to an average talent like this. He can be replaced with one of our 6ths at significantly less cost. Best of luck to Mr. Daley.

Surprised Jackson is not on that list. Bridgewater to TB?

I think CMC is the difference. When he played, we were 4-3. When he was out, we were 1-9. With our defense and a healthy CMC, we can field a competitive team regardless of our QB shortcomings. If CMC is hurt and misses half the season, we'll win 4-5 games and be picking in the top 5. Darnold will be gone and CMC will be cut. We can get a good QB there and start out fresh with a new coach. If he is healthy, our ceiling is probably 8 wins, which will put us picking around 10-14. We can still get a good young QB in that range but none of the top 3. If we have to pick a QB this year, I hope we move back, pick up a second, and select Strong. Give him a chance to sit and watch for a while and improve the OL with our first. I think he will be successful when the new coaching regime arrives next year.

Probably. Denver, Washington, Pittsburg, and Houston are all teams probably considering a QB upgrade with more available cap than us. Last thing I'd do is get in a bidding war. I still believe our best option is to try to trade back, grab an OL and LB in rounds 1 and 2, and roll with Darnold for another year. If everyone stays healthy (looking at you CMC), we may have a competitive season. Then we draft our favorite QB next year when the class looks to be a little better.

Releasing or trading your two best defensive players does not feel like great flexibility, but I agree they could claw their way out of it by punting some money into the future and/or gutting the roster. This is always an option. But my guess is that a new regime will want a clean slate. Get the finances in order (i.e. move cousins) and draft a QB. Keep your best pass rusher and your all-pro LB (coming off a 143 tackle/5 sack season). Take your lumps early in the honeymoon period with a rookie QB. Had we done this instead of trying to compete each year - we'd be in so much better shape. To be clear - I'm not advocating for Cousins. Don't want another 1-year rental. But I think he could be had with very little changing hands. It should be unnecessary to lose our first rounder.

Vikings are in really bad shape. They are over the cap by 18m, they owe Cousins 45m guaranteed, and Kellen Mond is their backup. I don't see a great deal of flexibility to find more money other than moving Cousins. I speculated this move on another thread, but I could see a Cousins for Darnold deal straight up, or maybe with a 1st round pick swap. Minn. gets a stopgap QB, the 6th pick to draft their future QB, and cap relief of 15-20m. Panthers keep a first rounder to draft an Offensive lineman and get a huge upgrade at QB. Maybe Minn. throws in one of their 6ths just to make us feel better.

He's been my target from the start IF we trade back and can get him in the second. That way he will be able to sit for at least half of the season and get up to speed. Wouldn't take him at 6.

Who knows. He hasn't been a complete bust or anything. 3 pro bowls. 9+ sacks 3 times. Just not worth the #1 pick. He's still only 29 and he had a good 2021. Maybe his career will turn out decent. I wouldn't touch him though.

no doubt.

Gotta think that was the exception. Clowney was 20th in sacks in 2021. Think he's signing anywhere for 6m?

I think this is a good signing. Sounds like he got 3m to sign and his salary will be 2m in year 1. So the cap hit will be 3.5m - not too bad for a ST / Rotational LB. Year 2 should be just a salary of 4m and cap hit of 5.5. Cap savings of 4m if cut with 1.5m dead. Not too damaging.

That's not bad. Give him 3/35 with a 15m signing bonus. Salary of 1m, 9m, 10m. Salary hit this year of 6m (not counting the 4m dead we already incurred on him). The third year should not be guaranteed so cap savings if cut would be 10m with 5 dead. That's manageable for his talent. He probably wants more, but maybe he does it for his buddy Rhule.

He's due to make 11m this year. I'd try to extend him - 3 years 42m with 15m signing bonus. Salary of 1m, 13m, 13m. Gives us 5m in cap savings for 2022. If he says no, trade him to Philly for their 16th pick. They need a good #2 possession receiver. Let Marshall and Shi play.

Not advocating for this, but here's one possible scenario... Rhule has to take a big swing on QB or he's out. Minnesota is currently 18m over the cap without a lot of flexibility. Cousins is soaking up 45m in cap with 35 dead if he's cut. They have to move him. Panthers trade Darnold (18m cap) and Bouye for Cousins (35m cap) and a 5th. Minnesota gets cap relief of around 15-20m or so and can use their #12 pick on a QB (remember this is a new regime with a hotshot offensive mind at the wheel). They have several nice weapons and probably see Darnold as a cheaper bridge for their new draftee. Panthers get a proven successful QB for one year. They keep their pick so they can add some OL talent. The extra 5th may help as well. They will probably need to convert some base salary to bonus for Moton and Shaq and extend DJ in order to get extra cap, but those are fairly easy adjustments as these are long-term investments.

I think in that scenario we offer Sam something like 2 for 25m with maybe 15m guaranteed. Then draft a QB in 2023 and let him sit for a year before handing him the keys.

Well your first paragraph is not correct. Don't really get the second paragraph. You've made some predictions that may or may not be true. Did you predict Cam would be on the team at the end of the season? good for you I guess. Jury's still out on Rhule's tenure (we just finished year 2 of a 7 year contract by the way) and we'll know how bad extending Darnold's option was at the end of next year. You might be correct - but saying you are already correct is actually not correct. Bottom line - I don't care that you are here - just wish you were more respectful toward my fellow panther fans. You obviously are not a fan but you seem to think you are somehow contributing. But to me, it just looks like you are here to somehow feel superior to everyone, which I find ironic.

Optimists are an endangered species around here lately. I'm an optimist too. I always think things can get better. I like the coaching upgrades. If we can trade back and grab Linderbaum, Dean or Lloyd - than use the extra draft capital to pick up a solid Guard, we would be in decent shape. Then if CMC is back and healthy - we might even be in the playoff mix.

I believe your numbers are fine, but I respectively disagree on your conclusion. We are not competing for a superb owl next year, but we are trying to develop a QB and OL. Whether that QB is Darnold or a Rookie, a player like CMC could be invaluable to that development. If a QB's options are hand it to Chubba or throw it to Anderson, he is doomed before he even starts. And no OL will want to block for that shitshow. But having some competency/skill/hope is, in my opinion, critical and worth the 14m price tag. Sure he could get hurt, but he managed to play 48 out of 48 games from 2017-2019 and he's extraordinarily productive when he's out there. Even if he only plays 10-12 games, he could be instrumental in helping the OL and QB improve throughout the year. 2023 is when I'd make my decision on him (unless of course someone offered me a deal I could not refuse).

Don't want you devastated, but some self-realization wouldn't hurt. I did not call AU-Panther's take silly. He was not on my radar. The silly take is the 'let's trade CMC' take without the contractual details in place. The details are important. And you completely mischaracterize my motivations. I don't mind being wrong. I admitted the additional cost to trade CMC is around 6m vs. 12m. I was never looking for any head-patting or huddle validation. I'm just here to share my thoughts on our team and what we may be able to do to improve. What I can't figure out is why are you here?

lol. I used to enjoy reading your posts. Now I just think of you as huge douche. Sad.

I didn't mention the post-june 1 actions because your just kicking the can down the road. Otherwise we seem to agree on everything except the pre-june 1 2022 trade option. A trade will cost 4.2m (assuming the other team picks up all of the base salary), With the 4.2m plus the salary of the picks we receive, it may cost us 6m or so to replace CMC. If we can replace CMC productivity for 6m or so, sounds like a plan. Will CMC be hurt this year or will he be healthy. Let us know so we can plan accordingly.