CPantherKing

Non-first round QBs have more success in the playoffs than 1st round QBs. When looking at 1st round QBs and success for the team that drafts them, it looks even worse for 1st round QBs in the playoffs. The worst thing a team could do is draft a 1st round QB without a professional sports pedigree and develop them. Trade for a 27/28 year old 1st round QB who is a proven winner, draft mid to late round QBs, sign undrafted QBs, let the QBs compete and keep starting them as long as they have 1 GWD for every 3 losses. If they get to 4 losses without a GWD or 7 losses without 3 GWD, move on. Trade them if they have perceived value around the league.

You only need a QB with average football intelligence, athletic instincts in the pocket, a sigma personality, perseverance, patience, and decisiveness. There are plenty of QBs available who fit this, but they don't tend to overwhelmingly be 1st round combine winners. Offensive coaches are the key. Take Kafka and Tierney away from Daboll's staff and he will be 2nd or 3rd tier as an NFL head coach.

DeMeco Ryans is a product of Johnny Holland. A defensive coach is never good for building a team into a dominant offensive contender. They are good for maintaining a contender that an offensive coach has laid the foundation for. Ryans will be a very good DC for a long time with Holland having his back. Ben Johnson is a product of a 4 headed OC with Campbell, Johnson, Brunell, and Staley. Johnson has not shown success in developing an offense, TEs, or QBs. Campbell placed him as the OC because he can communicate well with the QB/offense and does not rock the boat when Campbell, Brunell, and Staley weigh in with plays and planning like Lynn did. Johnson will not be good when he has to stand on his own and there should be no expectation of him developing a QB.

Lawrence is having a career ending game

From 2022? Glass, Ridder, Purdy, and Coan Keep watching

Not true. 45 franchise QBs per decade. 2 1st rounders go on to win SB and 2 non-1st rounders go on to win SB. 90s gave us Brad Johnson and Kurt Warner. Both did not go in the first 7 rounds. 2000s gave us Tom Brady (6th round) and Drew Brees. 2010s gave us Russell Wilson and Nick Foles. These are your playoff QBs outside the 1st round over the past 15 seasons: Brock Purdy, Geno Smith, Tyler Huntley, Skylar Thompson, Kirk Cousins, Taylor Heinicke, Dak Prescott, Derek Carr, Jalen Hurts, Jimmy Garoppolo, Case Keenum, Tyrod Taylor, Brock Osweiler, Connor Cook, Matt Moore, Brian Hoyer, AJ McCarron, Tony Romo, Ryan Lindley, Andy Dalton, Collin Kaepernick, Matt Schaub, Joe Webb, TJ Yates, Matt Hasselbeck, Matt Cassel, Kurt Warner, Brett Favre, Jake Delhomme, Tom Brady, Drew Brees, Nick Foles, Russell Wilson, and Tarvaris Jackson. (Day 2 - Day 3; 4th/5th - Day 3 6th/7th - Undrafted or later rounds) 34 of 73 playoff QBs in the past 15 seasons have come from outside the 1st round 1 of every 5 non-1st round QBs are undrafted. 1 of 2 are 6th round or later. 1 of every 4 playoff QBs come from the 6th round or later. Clearly, this is not rare. While more 1st round QBs get to the playoffs, non-1st round QBs who get to the playoffs have a better chance at winning the SB. When you factor in a QB winning a SB for the team that drafted them, non-1st round QBs have a slight advantage. Of Non-1st round QBs in the playoffs, 6th round to undrafted QBs have the same rate of success as their 2nd to 5th round counterparts. The Panthers have had 8 of these playoff QBs on their roster. 4 of them were from the 1st round, 1 was from the 6th round, and 3 were undrafted. The 1st round QBs have a playoff record of .412 with 7 wins, and the non-1st rounders have a .500 playoff record with 6 wins. You can run this with every NFL team. You may find 2 of the 32 teams that do not follow this pattern. Steelers are one of these teams. Steelers are an outlier as an organization and trying to copy their blueprint over the decades is a tall and foolish task. If anything, there are a fair amount of QBs who could be among the top of the NFL QBs and they are overlooked and never given an opportunity to prove they can win/succeed at the NFL level.

As opposed to all the players who did not want to be traded away from Rhule and Tepper's perpetual rebuild?

Kafka if he brings Tierney is the clear winner. Johnson isn't going to be able to take anything from Campbell. I'd be interested if Brunell came with Johnson, but doubt he will leave Campbell. Steichen's staff would also be unimpressive. Steichen with the Chargers was unimpressive.

And then you realize Darnold has had 1 GWD in his last 3 seasons. Carr had 15 GWD in the last 3 seasons. Carr has had more GWD in a single season than Darnold has had in his 5 year career. Darnold isn't close to being on the same level as Carr when it comes to pulling out wins when the team breaks down with defense, the running game, and coaching. The Raiders win 3 games if they get lucky with Darnold at QB in 2022. Darnold is not the type of QB that can turn losses into wins consistently against NFL defenses.

Shea Tierney over Mike LaFleur for OC. Brian Daboll has been capitalizing off of Tierney since the national championship game with Alabama (Tierney was there with Saban before Daboll arrived and Daboll took this football genius with him). Tierney has been behind the success of Brian Daboll, Ken Dorsey, Nick Foles, Jalen Hurts, Tua Tagovailoa, Josh Allen, and Daniel Jones. I would want him as HC, but he needs a couple seasons as OC and demonstrate he can create an immediate impact in that role like he has for all the instant success for the others he has touched. For now, pairing him with Kafka as HC is the best move. I see Kafka being an Andy Reid type HC and Shea Tierney being a cross of Bill Walsh/Bill Belichick type HC. Without Kafka and Tierney, I believe Daboll falls back down to earth. Daboll put Dorsey in place with the Bills to prep Tierney for his future OC. He gives Kafka (who was prepped to be OC for Reid) his shot at OC to help develop Tierney even more for OC. Tierney has been prepping for OC under Daboll for 5 years. If you want an immediate improvement on offense, you give the HC position to Kafka if he brings Tierney with him as OC. Then trade Kafka to another team when Tierney is ready to be HC. Same plan I suggested when the Panthers went to the SB; Trade Rivera's contract for what you can get and promote McDermott. Tierney in 2 to 3 seasons will give you the best of Bill Walsh, Bill Belichick, Nick Saban, and Chip Kelly. You will have a young coach who is a crossbreed of 4 coaching trees and can find and develop QBs at will on the college or NFL level. He has the perfect combination of psychology, data analytics, game planning, development, and scouting. Kafka-Tierney combo with Tierney moving up as the HC in time will lead a team to a dynasty. If I got my way I would put Sean McVay, Mike Kafka, and Shea Tierney in a room. McVay moving to a GM role, Kafka as the HC, and Tierney as the OC. Eventually, McVay would take a Co-GM role with Tierney as Co-GM/HC after Kafka's rights are traded to another team. I hope the Panthers don't miss another rare window while watching another team benefit from getting it right.

David Carr, Derek Carr's older brother, was a Panther in 2007. He started 4 games. That was the year Jake Delhomme had his injury. Injuries plagued the Panthers QBs that year and the Panthers went through Delhomme, Carr, Testaverde, and Moore. Derek Carr is a good option at QB. In 6 wins this season he had 4 GWD. That is a potential 4 losses he managed to rescue. The Panthers QBs in 2022 only had 1 GWD against the Saints to end the season. If you were just to swap out Carr for Baker, Darnold, and Walker, the Panthers record goes from 7-10 to 10-7. If you swap out Wilks for Rhule to start the season, the Panthers go from 10-7 to 11-6. If you have CMC and Bozeman starting together for the Panthers all year, the Panthers go from 11-6 to 13-4. Carr is definitely an option for a championship minded team/front office. Carr was respected more than McDaniels in Vegas and it showed with how McDaniels handled that team. Carr is a better fit with a respected coach like Wilks, Rivera, or Reed. We all know the Raiders front office is a clown show. A good option, but not the best option.

So, SB Championship player = $18.3M dead cap for 2023, $12M free, a top of the 3rd, 4th and 5th round pick in 2023 and a 6th round pick in 2024. With this FO, that means they will sign a Robby Anderson type player, Foreman... while drafting players like TMJ, Troy Pride, Daviyon Nixon, and Deonte Brown. Would you trade CMC for Anderson, Foreman, TMJ, Pride, Nixon, and Brown? Would you trade a SB MVP for a #3 deep threat with poor hands, a journeyman power back who can't catch, a rookie WR who needs 4 seasons to develop, and 3 players who will be cut or never see the field? How much are you willing to pay to win a SB? The Rams, Bucs, and Chiefs didn't go bargain shopping for their SBs. The 49ers may likely be the 4th to pay up for the players necessary to win a SB. Hardly a win-win. The Panthers had a known weapon in CMC. Now, this FO is just hoping to win the lottery.

Wilks won't be HC. If he stays, he will be DC/Asst HC. I believe the Wilks/Holcomb hires were a long play for Leftwich. I've been waiting to see what team wakes up to Kafka as HC. He was the coach I wanted instead of the Rgule hire. I'm good with Leftwich, but Kafka is the homerun if paired with Tierney. There are too many questions if Johnson can succeed on his own. He has been the communicator of a 4 headed OC with the Lions that includes Campbell, Brunell, and Staley.

Kafka... must have read my post the other day. lol Well, I guess waiting 3 years too long is better than not doing it in 2020 when I pointed Kafka out and why. Be glad he is not gone. Package deal with Kafka and Tierney for the offense. Done deal. Dynasty coaches with a GM they don't clash with. Tierney>Kafka so be prepared to elevate Tierney when he is ready. Don't want to see another McDermott-Beane screw up because ownership/GM can't see what is in front of them. They will turn it around in 2 to 3 seasons with the team that hires them together. Bring in DeFillipo as QB coach under Kafka/Tierney. Offense/QB/passing game is fixed.

Keeping Burns for that contract will hold the Panthers back as an organization.

I make of it this... Byron Leftwich would choose the following staff. Wilks DC. Holcomb LB. Christensen OC. Caldwell QB. Reich WR. Scottie Montgomery RB. Tepper's plan is to collect all these Leftwich staff candidates. If he does not get Leftwich with this leverage, he has a fall back.

Or do they grow on trees? Paul Brown produced Blanton Collier and Weeb Ewbank with the Browns and Bill Walsh with the Bengals. Bill Walsh produced Mike Holmgren, Brian Billick via Denny Green, Pete Carroll via Wyche/Coslet and George Seifert with the 49ers. Mike Holmgren produced Andy Reid and Jon Gruden with the Packers. Jon Gruden produced Mike Tomlin and Sean McVay via Jay Gruden with the Bucs. Andy Reid produced John Harbaugh with the Eagles and Doug Pederson with the Chiefs. 11 of the last 26 SB winning coaches. So, if you want 1 of every 2 SB winning coaches, you obviously follow this line because they understand how to win. If you are maintaining a team, you go with extremely seasoned defensive coaches in this line. If you need to build up a bad team, you go with the offensive minded coaches in this line that have sat in with the QB and/or TE development during their coaching career. Go with the coaches that began their early NFL coaching careers under the Paul Brown coaching tree. I've been watching this coach on the Paul Brown line since 2018. I wanted him as the Panthers' coach for the 2020 season after he helped develop Mahomes under Andy Reid for a SB Championship. He is still available and has since went on to turn the Giants passing game around and resurrect Daniel Jones in a single season. A team should want their next HC to be Mike Kafka if they play it smart. Kafka can obviously turn a QB around in 1 to 2 years and have a team in the playoffs/contending in 2 to 3 seasons. Mike Kafka HC, Johnny Holland DC, Shea Tierney OC Best of the Chiefs, 49ers, and Bills right here with young offensive minds influenced by the Chiefs under Reid and the Bills under McDermott. If you are unfamiliar with Tierney (NC State guy), he has studied and/or contributed to the development of Mike Glennon, Nick Foles, Jalen Hurts, Tua Tagovailoa, Josh Allen, and now the miracle turn around of Daniel Jones (4 of these QBs are leading teams in the 2022 playoffs and Nick Foles has won a SB). Throw in Kafka's development of Mahomes and these 2 young offensive minds know everything there is to know about 5 of the QBs and how they were developed in the 2022 NFL playoffs. So, they do kinda grow on trees - coaching trees. You just need to know how to find them.

One has to worry what happens to Ben Johnson when he stands on his own. He was surrounded with offensive minds, and Campbell factored into the play calling with the help of Brunell and Staley. The Lions play calling was done by committee (Campbell, Johnson, Brunell, and Staley) after Lynn was stripped of his play calling duties in 2021 and fired at the end of the season. If I had to go with one of those offensive minds, I choose Brunell and Staley over Johnson. Brunell if you want to develop a QB. When Johnson leaves, I expect him to promote Engstrand to OC as his nuts and bolts communicator. It will still be play calling by committee. Engstrand will look just like Johnson after 1 season, and you will be talking about hiring him too. As long as Campbell can lean on Staley and Brunell for the run and pass game, Campbell's offense will continue to look the same as it did this season.

Not Dungy/Moore Steelers line. Joe Philbin/Mike Sherman for Ben Johnson. Same line as Zac Taylor and Dan Campbell. The closest connection to Johnson would be McAdoo via Philbin. McAdoo and Philbin had a coaching relationship.

So, they are interviewing the Tom Moore offensive circle (Jim Caldwell, Frank Reich). Expecting to see Freddie Kitchens, Marc Trestman, and Byron Leftwich next. Interesting how these offensive minds developed under Tom Moore have history with Steve Wilks and Al Holcomb as their defensive counterparts. Tom Moore currently is with Bruce Arians on the Buccaneers payroll. Leftwich, Wilks, Christensen seems to be the direction this is going. Tepper and his youth during the 70s and 80s watching those Steelers teams is apparent. Tepper wants a Tom Moore offense and a Tony Dungy defense, and it would not surprise me if he has been consulting with Dungy. Tepper continues to talk up and secure the coaching mentors of Byron Leftwich.

Glass, Ridder, Purdy, and Coan are the QBs who made my draft board in 2022

Never called Ekwonu a bust. I called him a bad pass blocker at LT who was not worth a 5th round pick. He will always waist bend and struggle at LT when the game is on the line in the 4th quarter. His pass blocking will be good for 3 to 4 losses per season. He would be an ALL PRO guard. I spotted Brady with Michigan after wanting Griese in 98. I had Brady at a 3rd to 4th round value. He was put in tough positions by the coaching staff at Michigan and he was the #1 college QB in GWD. He closed out his college career with 4/5 GWD and had GWD in his 98 and 99 bowl games. He also was polished up and spoke highly of by Stan Parrish. This was all known before the draft, but the talk was about how awkward he looked and his poor performance at the combine. I did not value Drew Henson the same as Griese or Brady. Many of you like to take evaluation of your favorite players weak points as though they are a bust. Ekwonu struggles badly with his pass blocking, and that is well known. Should a LT who may never be a good pass blocker be taken with the 5th pick in the draft? A majority of people would say absolutely not.

This was the 2022 offseason. Jimmy G was available to the Panthers. I had 4 QBs on my draft board worth drafting and the Panthers could have had all 4 in camp. Purdy was one of those 4 and you load up on camp arms to evaluate and compete in the offseason. I would have had all 4 rookies in camp. It was there and I figured it out. The front office can't evaluate players very well. Trey Lance I always had as a bust. Never want him.

I support trades for young proven TEs, Edge rushers, and FS. Instead this team trades for failed QBs, CBs, and WRs.

Guess my proposed Jimmy G, Desmond Ridder, Brock Purdy, Aqeel Glass competition in the offseason looks much better than the Mayfield, Darnold, Corral, Walker QB room we saw play out.