CPantherKing

Live in the past? Andy Reid has been to the past 3 of 4 SBs. He has contended for SBs with the Eagles and Chiefs before Mahomes. He learned from Mike Holmgren who went to SBs with the Packers and Seahawks with a 2nd and 6th round QB in Brett Favre and Matt Hasselbeck. Holmgren learned from Walsh who created a dynasty with a 3rd round QB in Montana while making other QBs playoff contenders as well in Dan Fouts and Ken Anderson. Walsh learned from Paul Brown who won championships before the SB was ever an event with a QB by the name of Otto Graham. This is still done the same way as the past. And you always need a good defense that creates turnovers and pressure the QB to even stand a chance. No HC or QB will win it all for a team without a good defense.

So much for player safety

The Eagles defense in the 4th quarter is Chuck Cecil approved

Spearing allowed now? lol

When will you realize the likely OC is John DeFilippo? Just need to wait for him to finish up his current contract. He's currently coaching/developing young players on Reich's offensive system. They will be coming to camp with several months of training.

Lamar Jackson trade is not going to happen with Reich as the HC. Active QBs I have wanted to draft are Aaron Rodgers, Russell Wilson, Nick Foles, Derek Carr, Patrick Mahomes, Aqeel Glass, Desmond Ridder, Brock Purdy, and Jack Coan. Derek Carr, Nick Foles, Aqeel Glass, and Jack Coan are likely available. I didn't have Jimmy G on my list of QBs to draft, but I believe he is one of the best championship potential QBs available. Seems I have the same eye for QBs that Reich and company have. Reich and his #2 DeFilippo agree with me. You all can continue to disagree. Reich has tried to trade for Carr and Jimmy G multiple seasons before going with Rivers, Wentz, and Ryan. Reich wanted Foles, but couldn't pull him away from DeFilippo while he was coaching in the NFL. Reich brought Coan in to camp with the Colts and was interested in developing him. DeFilippo has invested himself into developing Glass before he returns to the NFL. Frank Reich has Jacob Eason and Jack Coan at the top of his list as developmental QBs. If Reich gets DeFilippo to team back up with him, Staley, and DeFilippo's protege McCown, he brings along with him his developmental QB Glass. Obviously, they would pull Foles along for the ride if the Colts release him. Then there is Fitterer/Morgan's favorite project QB Davis Cheek who just happened to find his way to develop under Reich/DeFillipo's offense as Glass' backup. If the Panthers can't get Carr or Jimmy G, you should expect Eason, Coan, Glass, and Cheek battling it out in camp with 2 winning a roster spot, 1 finding his way to the practice squad, and Foles coming in as the vet QB. I expect Reich to go for Quentin Johnston and Darnell Washington to start the draft.

I was willing to part ways with Burns last season by trading him and getting value plus drafting James Houston to replace him. I have yet to see a replacement available for Burns in this draft. I'm never willing to move a player that limits the team without replacing their impact for a lesser cost. Have to keep Burns for now. Panthers missed that window I pointed to last year.

Are there a lot of "IT gene" QBs that can't win in the NFL? Many of them come from big schools with great coaches and NFL talent surrounding them to make them look so good. Too many quality QBs without the IT factor who can win in the NFL get overshadowed or overlooked. It takes them winning multiple championships to get respect while these "IT gene" QBs get blown up and flame out. I measure these QBs. If I went with QBs I enjoyed watching, I'd miss often. This happens in the NFL. People over-sensationalize the draft, combine, Heisman QBs, and big school QBs. I'll give you the 1994 draft for starters. 9 QBs were drafted with 2 in the first round. That draft was deep in talent, but none of those QBs should have been drafted in the early rounds. There were 12 QBs that could win in the NFL. By your reasoning, this would have been false. You would have said that Jay Fiedler, Kurt Warner, Jeff Garcia, Marvin Graves, and Jeff Brohm couldn't even make an NFL roster as they developed and succeeded in developmental leagues. All of them were able to play in the NFL and win. Heath Shuler couldn't even succeed in a developmental league. Dilfer was a 1st round disappointment. He should have been drafted in the 3rd round at best. No better than a Mark Rypien or Brad Johnson. This happens 2 to 3 drafts per decade. No troll. Reality. It was bad before but the 1st round QB overreach has gotten out of control in the past 15 seasons. As for drafts that produce very little in the 1st round, the 2021 draft continues to shape up to be that draft. Pederson could do more with Nick Foles than he can with Lawrence. The other 4 are all flaming out while racking up the most losses of any 1st round group. 2016, 2015, 2014, 2013 were 4 straight drafts with overrated 1st round QBs that wasted our time. 2011 had 4 QBs with only 1 worth drafting and he only lasted 8 seasons. 2007, 2006, 2002, and 2000 were all bust years for 1st round QBs. 1997, 1996, 1994, 1992, 1991, and 1990 were all bust years for 1st round QBs in the 90s. You can expect 4 to 6 drafts per decade to be loaded with 1st round busts at QB that will never amount to anything more than your average undrafted QB can accomplish. History has proven that this is reality. What isn't reality is thinking that not all 1st round QBs can bust from a single NFL draft, or thinking that 6th rounders to undrafted QBs in a single draft class can't be loaded with NFL starting level QBs who win more than #1 combine warrior picks.

2022 was not a weak QB class. You had several QBs that can start in the NFL and win from last year. The issue was there was no QB worth a 1st round pick last year and the top 5/6 were being overrated. Pickett, Ridder, Howell, Corral, Strong, Purdy, Thompson, Oladokun, Zappe, Kelley, Glass, Eleby, and Coan are capable of winning consistently at the NFL level. The 2022 draft class was deep in NFL talent, just not Manning/Stafford/Mahomes/Roethlisberger talent. The 2023 class does not have a single winner and 2 potential Blaine Gabbert/Baker Mayfield career backups. This draft class of QBs is like having Baker Mayfield, Tim Couch, Sam Darnold, Josh Rosen, Cade McNown and Akili Smith all going in the 1st round. There is no Josh Allen, Lamar Jackson, Donovan McNabb, or Daunte Culpepper to save the 2023 class. The same people who drooled over Baker Mayfield, Tim Couch, Josh Rosen, and Akili Smith are the same ones drooling over Bryce Young, CJ Stroud, Will Levis, and Anthony RIchardson.

https://www.foxsports.com/stories/usfl/a-conversation-with-usfl-vp-of-operations-daryl-johnston "A star QB to watch? Johnston claims — and I agree — that Breakers quarterback Aqeel Glass could be a star in this league. Glass, a 6-foot-5, 225-pound signal-caller, led Alabama A&M to its first-ever HBCU football national title in the spring of 2021 and its first SWAC title since 2006. "That was one of the guys that we were chasing all last season," Johnston said. "It was just a game of wait and see. And (USFL director of player personnel) Jim Popp never gave up on it and kept chasing him. And now that he's come over to our side, and he's going to be in New Orleans, I really think this could be something that gives him an opportunity like 50-plus of our guys had last year to get that invitation to that NFL training camp once our season’s over." [Daryl Johnston] I believe he knows football... maybe you don't

There are 32 starting QBs in the NFL (10 up for grabs) and 16 starting QBs in the XFL/USFL. 26 spots to show you deserve to be/have a shot at being an NFL franchise QB. There is only ONE head coach in the developmental leagues who has been an NFL OC, won a SB, developed NFL QBs (Eli Manning, Mark Sanchez, Derek Carr, Carson Wentz, Nick Foles, Kirk Cousins, Gardner Minshew, and Justin Fields). That coach is John Defilippo (Frank Reich's #2 with the Eagles SB team). He took 2022 off and chose to work with Donovan McNabb on developing Aqeel Glass (who he saw up close in workouts next to Justin Fields). Now, he has taken this USFL coaching position with an emphasis on bringing Aqeel Glass with him to develop. We will soon see this sought after QB coach developing this QB you choose to dismiss. When QB coaches like Clyde Christensen and John Defilippo want to develop a QB coming out of college, you should pay attention. We will see if Glass fails after a year of development under the NFLs best (SB champion coaches). Yes, I would take Glass over Levis, RIchardson, Young, Stroud, Mayfield, Darnold, Corral, and Walker. I value him at the same level as I value Desmond Ridder and Brock Purdy. Seems like SB champion coaches do too. Enough to take time off from the NFL, develop him in the offseason, take a HC job to bring him along for development, and I would believe he will be taking another NFL position after the USFL season. I expect he will want to bring the QB he has been developing with him. While most of you will be focused on the combine with Stroud, Young, Levis, and Richardson getting pitched by their agents in this weak QB draft, I will be watching a SB champion QB coach developing an actual QB he believes has championship potential.

Let them. These QBs are not worth 1st round picks.

I expect an average rookie QB to bring 20-25% GWD, 60% COMP, and 2.5% TO (This is not enough for a SB championship level QB). Darnold is 12.8% GWD, 59.7% COMP, and 3.5% TO. There are other measurements that are not typical stats and Darnold doesn't make the cut on any of them. 5 years (55 games) of proving you can't do the job is enough. Give someone else a chance to show if they can get the job done.

Highest success rate on what? Receiving the most franchise opportunities in the NFL? I agree that 1st round picks are gifted the most opportunities.

Weak QB class at the top in 2018, 2019, 2020, 2021, and 2022. Too many overrated QBs. Everyone dreams that a 1st round pick is the answer. Mayfield, Darnold, Allen, Rosen, Jackson, Murray, Jones, Hasksins, Burrow, Tagovailoa, Herbert, Love, Lawrence, Wilson, Lance, Fields, Jones, and Pickett. Now, Stroud, Young, Levis, and Richardson? And 14 of 29 QBs with records of .500 or better in 2022 are not 1st round QBs. Only 3 1st round QBs were among the top 11 winningest QBs in 2022. Meanwhile, everyone wants to scramble for a bunch of 1st round overrated QBs when Purdy, Zappe, Rush, Howell, Hurts, Heinicke, Cousins, Rypien, Huntley, Thompson, Ridder, Garoppolo, Smith, Prescott, and Brady are winning at the NFL level in 2022. (82-39-1) 67.8% winning percentage. (18-8-1) 69.2% winning for 7th round to undrafted. (118-69-1) 63.1% winning percentage for 1st round QBs who had success in 2022. Seems like people need to wake up and stop wasting time on these 1st round below average QBs with huge expectations and give these other QBs outside the 1st round the opportunities to prove they are all just rare occurrences in the NFL. How many more of these QBs capable of winning in the NFL are sitting on the sidelines because of these terrible 1st round QBs getting 5 seasons to prove just how bad they are at the NFL level? Too many people would rather want a 1st round QB than they would want a QB who can actually win in the NFL.

First time SB winning QBs typically have 2 to 3 playoff seasons with 1 win at most before they win the SB. Playoff experience from the HC, OC, and QBC are more important than the QB. GWD and opening/4/2/1 minute drives are more important for a QB. Here are the records of the last 10 SB Champion QBs prior to their SB playoff run: 0-3; 0-0; 1-1; 0-1; 0-3; 1-1; 5-4; 0-2; 0-1; 1-2 1 QB had no prior playoff XP 4 QBs had 1 season of playoff XP 2 QBs had 2 seasons of playoff XP 2 QBs had 3 seasons of playoff XP The record for these 9 SB champion QBs before their SB run is 3-14 The single QB with the most playoff XP and the only winning playoff QB had 4 seasons of playoff XP Care to take a guess at who this successful QB is? So, all I want from a QB who is ready and able to win the SB is 1 to 2 playoff appearances.

QBs have never been too old. SB winning QBs average age when they first win the SB is 29. 3 of the first 4 QBs were in their 30s. The last QB to win a SB was in his 30s. Starr(2), Plunkett(2), Montana(2), Elway(2), Bradshaw(2), P. Manning(2), Simms(2) and Brady(4) have led teams in multiple SB seasons at 30+. Unitas won a SB at 37. 60% of SBs have been won by QBs who are 29 or older. Only 10 SBs have been won by a 1st round QB under the age of 30 for the team/coach that drafted them. 10 QBs that were 35 years or older have led their team to a SB winning season.

Yes, they do. Every year it is about how these college QBs are going to be the one to dominate the NFL like Tom Brady, Brock Purdy, and Jalen Hurts. All these 1st round QBs that are the best of the best. I have had QBs make my board, but not every year. The last 5 1st round QBs that made my board with my algo are Patrick Mahomes 2017, Andrew Luck 2012, Aaron Rodgers 2005, Eli Manning 2004, and Peyton Manning 1998. Averaging one 1st round QB every 5 years. The next QB I am expecting to make it on my board as a 1st round value is Arch Manning 2027. Looking for that Mahomes or Rodgers QB to sneak up on me this decade. I believe it is better to miss on a Roethlisberger and hit more often on 1st round QBs every 5 years than it is to hit on a Roethlisberger with the chance of wasting the years of a franchise on a Rosen, Mayfield, Darnold, Bortles, Russell, Goff, Wentz, or Bradford every 2 to 3 years. I know 85% of all QBs who are invested in for 2 years as a franchise QB make it to the playoffs. Round does not matter (6th round to undrafted QBs do edge out 1st rounders). You can load up on undrafted QBs and get to the playoffs. I also know that 7.6% of 1st round QBs win for the coach/team that gives them their first franchise QB opportunity. 6th round to undrafted QBs win a SB for the coach/team that gives them their 1st opportunity at 5.8%. So, is a 1.8% increased chance worth the draft capital of a 1st round draft pick? The cost of the first pick in the 6th round is 20 points. The cost of the last pick in the 1st round is 600 points. Defensive players have a better return on value with the 1st round pick for building a SB champion. How much is wasted with a 1st round pick that costs 1500 to 3000 points in draft capital for a 1.8% increase? As for Richardson and Levis, both are out of their league against the top 20 QBs in the NFL, and they will easily be replaced by other QBs that will get an opportunity from past drafts and future drafts. Levis will wow everyone with his accuracy and decision making. He is a great 7 on 7/combine QB. He is average in the clutch/situational football and toughness. His athletic ability in the pocket is poor. He sets and becomes a tree with very predictable pocket movement for edge rushers. If he starts to move out of the pocket he stops looking down field to pass and becomes a RB who will not pass. He rates poorly at moving the safeties. Then you factor in that he is a 3.1% TO QB (Darnold level). Levis will not be on my draft board.

You keep believing that and continue to gaslight everyone. That is always a possibility. There is a big difference between a 54% passer and a 58% passer in football. Comp% for a college QB? I'd want to see them trending up. Posting 60% to 70% in at least 2 seasons with an upward trend is going to be a green light regardless of average. If that 58% average is potential and they transfer that to the NFL, it would put them in the 84th to 92nd percentile of NFL QB decision makers. Stafford, Brady, and Wilson are the last 3 SB champion QBs who have been in this range. I'd be looking for a coachable QB with improved decision making and the ability to make their receivers and the coaching staff better. They would have a pattern from low to high of 45 - 55 - 60 - 62 - 64 - 65. So, 58 is average. Trending up is potential. And I would expect that QB to level off around 63-65% in the NFL. If they are coming from a vertical system while trailing in a high % of games, they would get an even bigger bump in potential. If they are in a horizontal system with high percentage routes and playing with leads, they would be given a neutral to declining status. You want QBs with potential and little to no volatility coming out of college. Richardson is a highly volatile and limited passer that would be some where in the 56 to 58 range at the NFL level. I'd expect him to remain at the bottom of the NFL if he were to be a starter. I'd expect Richardson to fall in the 30th to 49th percentile on the NFL level. Dilfer, Elway and Rypien were the last 3 SB champion QBs in this range. You can win a SB with any NFL QB when it comes to decision making (Doug Williams, Joe Namath, Jim Plunkett, and Terry Bradshaw among the worst in the NFL - 8 SBs among them). This is just decision making. There are other factors that layer over decision making, one of the most important being the clutch factor, and RIchardson is below my cutoff for that too at 23.5% GWD. Give me a 58% COMP with 35% GWD QB from college in a 65%+ vertical passing game with at least one championship. I'll look into their leadership/personality and then possibly put them on my board. Anthony Richardson does not make the cut. There is more to it, but COMP layered with GWD will filter out many of the college QBs that will not win a championship at the NFL level - even with the best coaches in the NFL.

Anthony Richardson can't pass. He's a fastball pitcher that will get picked off 4 to 5 times a game in the NFL. He has 0 touch and can't layer his passes and has little arm talent. His footwork in the pocket is raw. He is a wildcat QB that every NFL defense will challenge to win the game with his arm. Definitely not a QB Reich would want behind center. There is no stability to his game and he is not clutch with his situational football.

There is no CONSENSUS PEDIGREE QB in the NFL draft. Trading up is always a bad move, but it would be a very bad move with this QB class. The best options for a championship QB appear to be in free agency this year.

Jimmy Garoppolo is the 6th best active QB in playoff wins. Rodgers, Mahomes, Flacco, Wilson, Burrow, Garoppolo, Foles, Stafford, Allen, Ryan are the top 10 active QBs in playoff experience. This is what Reich means by stability. 2 of his preferred QBs are on on this list. Expect him to favor these QBs if they are available. Jimmy G would go to the top of Reich's list when he becomes available. Luck and Rivers were in the top 10 before they retired. Be ready for a QB room with the likes of Flacco, Garoppolo, and Foles.

Stability and great foot work with a proven ability to be clutch is what Reich wants at the QB position. That is not Brissett or most, if not all, of the QB prospects in the draft this year. I'm expecting Nick Foles when released and Jacob Eason to be part of the QB plan. Reich's choice of OC, QB coach, and PGC will tell us more. Reich has not favored drafting a 1st round QB. He believed Eason to have the most arm talent in the 2020 draft with Burrow, Tagovailoa, Herbert, and Hurts in that same draft class. Reich wanted his #2 to be Eason with the Colts, and Eason signed a futures contract knowing Reich favors him.

He is the one who hit Mahomes out of bounds for a 15 yard penalty. Set the Chiefs up for an easier FG. Otherwise the FG has to go 15 yards further. Big mistake when the Bengals defense is playing for OT.

Goodnight Joe Burrow