CPantherKing

Trading up for a QB is instant death for a 1st year coach without any foundation.

And now the Panthers are in search of 2 receiving backs for Reich's offense. Not to mention Reich has to get past the CMC 49ers in the playoffs to keep his job.

Sam Darnold is ready to join the ranks of Blake Bortles, Joey Harrington, Akili Smith, and Ryan Leaf. Those top tier QBs need a lot more than good coaching to succeed in the NFL. Darnold would struggle in any other league and easily be replaced by QBs who went undrafted for the NFL. Maybe he can be Paxton Lynch's backup.

So, you want a mobile QB who came out of Georgie, played for the SEC, won a national championship in college, was drafted by an NFC team, was given up on by the team that drafted him due to injury problems in his late 20s, frustrates his offensive coaches with his risk taking/decision making, is unorthodox in his play style/throwing style, has been good enough to be considered for MVP, went on to play for another NFL team that also gave up on him, has been a Pro Bowl QB, and was offensive RoY. You want this QB to come back to his first NFL team in his early 30s to play another 6 to 7 years while leading the Panthers to 4 SBs in his mid to late 30s? I believe there is an available QB that fits the Fran Tarkenton model. I just think there are more fans that want to draft one of the top two first round QBs like Jerry Tagge and John Reaves instead of bringing back a QB in their 30s with experience who had injury problems.

This has been around since the late 2000s. Several of these businesses were emerging in the early 2010s. Some NFL teams have been using their assessments since 2016, and I believe less than half the league currently use their services. This is just press to get more business. If they ever start producing SB winning teams/players consistently, the entire league will use them. The NFL front offices and scouts still ignore this test for the most part. The two QBs in the top 90th percentile from the 2022 combine were both overlooked last year. They are both playing very well and continue to be doubted.

Incorrect. Not having a top college tier QB does not ALMOST GUARANTEE you won't win a SB. There have been 11 QBs to win a SB in the last 20 seasons. You like your sample cutoff? Keeps Brad Johnson, Trent Dilfer, Kurt Warner, John Elway, and Brett Favre out of your sample. Wouldn't want to consider a 1st round QB that failed for the team that drafted him to become a journeyman, and a 1st round QB who took more than a decade to win a SB at the age of 37. Too far back? Even with this being left out, your theory does not hold for drafting 1st round QB to rebuild a team with a new HC. Mahomes, Stafford, Brady, Foles, P.Manning, Wilson, Flacco, E.Manning, Rodgers, Brees, Roethlisberger. So, you anchor your theory on 2 Mannings and 3 established coaches/franchises (Cowher/Maddox; Reid/Smith), (Sherman/Favre) inserting 1st round QBs in place of failed 1st round QBs and a HoF 38 year old 2nd round QB. Panthers can't use a 1st round QB to insert like the Chiefs, Steelers, or Packers. There is no Manning available until 2027. Stafford failed for the team/coach that drafted him. I see ONE 1st round QB on this list that has been drafted since 2010 and has won the SB for the team that drafted them. I see 2 QBs drafted outside the 1st round on this list. Mahomes was inserted into a team with a championship foundation, Wilson elevated a losing team in a rebuild to a SB contender, and Foles was signed to elevate a losing franchise during a rebuild to a SB championship. The Panthers are in the Seahawks and Eagles rebuild mode. They are no where near the Chiefs contender mode. If we just look at winning a SB with the team/coach that drafted them for a rebuilding team, then you have Flacco in 5 years and Wilson in 2 years as your only QBs. You can also include E.Manning in 4 years and Brady in 2 years if you allow teams who have been to the SB and have carry over players for a retooling under a new coach rather than a rebuild. What has happened to all the 1st round QBs over the past 15 seasons anchoring their teams rebuild? Doesn't seem to work too well using your own sample. What 1st round picks have actually helped build their team to the SB? It isn't QBs. Also, over this same period of time the losing SB QBs are 6 1st rounders and 6 non-1st rounders. Non-1st round QBs get to the SB in 4.2 seasons (6th round to undrafted; 3.5 seasons to SB; 2nd/3rd round QBs; 4.7 seasons to SB). 1st round QBs get to the SB in 5.4 seasons. (1st round QBs that were not drafted by a SB contending team; 6.2 seasons to SB) Delhomme 3, Hasselbeck 7, Warner 2, Kaepernick 2, Garoppolo 6, Hurts 3, Brady 2, Brees 9, Wilson 2, Foles 6. (10 with 5 winners) NONE of these QBs were inserted into SB contending teams. McNabb 6, Grossman 4, Newton 5, Ryan 9, Goff 3, Burrow 2, Roethlisberger 1, P.Manning 9, E.Manning 4, Rodgers 6, Flacco 5, Mahomes 3, Stafford 13. (13 with 7 winners) 5 of these QBs were inserted into SB contending teams. Considering 1st rounders get more franchise starting opportunities and several years/coaches to fail, looks even to me. No advantage to going with a 1st round QB. There has been no domination by 1st round QBs outside of getting coaches fired, racking up losing seasons, wasting draft capital and taking longer to win games/playoffs/SBs. Since 2001, 5 SBs have had no 1st round QB starting, 4 SBs have had 2 1st round starting QBs, and 13 SBs have been split. In the split SBs, 1st round QBs are 7-6. There have been 3 consecutive SBs without a 1st round QB. There has never been consecutive SBs this century with all 1st round QBs. You have to go back to the Cowboys-Bills in the early 90s for this RARE event. All 1st round QB SBs: 1972 - 1985-1986-1987 - 1992-1993 - 2000 - 2006 - 2010 - 2015 - 2021. All NO 1st round QB SBs: 1967 - 1976 - 1981-1982 - 1988 - 2001-2002-2003 - 2014 - 2017. Am I overlooking something that would favor 1st round draft picks? I don't think so. 85% of all QBs regardless of round make it to the playoffs. All they need is a coach who believes in them enough to give them an opportunity. When it comes to QBs that win in the playoffs, 1st round QBs have a slight edge, but nothing significant enough to replace the draft capital needed for a 1st round DT, WR, or LB. The rare top combine QB with a pro sports pedigree is the only exception I would make. 68 1st round picks since 2000 have been SB champions over the last 10 SBs. Only 2 are QBs, and only 1 has won it for the the team that drafted the QB. 11 are LBs, 10 are WRs, and 9 are DTs. In the last 10 1st rounds, there have been 30 QBs, 28 DTs, 42 WRs, and 40 LBs taken. QB: 2/30; 6.7% (Need 0) 4 of 10 SB teams had 1st round QBs. DT: 9/28; 32.1% (Need 2) 8 of 10 SB teams had a 1st round DT. 3 of 10 SB teams had 2 1st round DTs. WR: 10/42; 23.8% (Need 1) 9 of 10 SB teams had a 1st round WR. 1 of 10 teams had 2 1st round WRs. LB: 11/40; 27.5% (Need 3) 8 of 10 SB teams have a 1st round LB. 6 of 10 teams have 2 1st round LBs. SB teams have carried 6 to 10 1st round players on their roster with the average being 8. I'd want to see 8 to 9 1st round picks consisting of 2 DTs, 1 WR, 3 LBs, 2 BPA from WR/DE/CB. A reserve 1st round pick for that rare 1st round projected pedigree QB, or a complete pass and run blocking pro ready LT, which may only happen 1 to 2 times in a decade. There is a long list of players I would want on the roster as a 1st rounder over all those QBs, and I can only have 6 to 9 of that long list. In the past 20 years, the only QBs I'd value over many of these players in the first round were Eli Manning, Aaron Rodgers, Andrew Luck, and Patrick Mahomes. I enjoyed watching Cam Newton, but I would not have picked him as the QB in that 2011 rebuild. This 1st round QB myth kills entire franchises. It is the worst position lottery to play in the NFL, and you either know how to pick a QB like Bill Walsh (who never drafted a 1st round QB) or you hope you get really lucky when there is definitely a better use of 1st round picks for a championship team.

The way fans view these players, I would have thought the Panthers have drafted Justin Jefferson, Nick Bosa, Jeffery Simmons, Sauce Gardner, and Tristan Wirfs. Drafting a 1st round pick who can't be a championship leader, a playmaker, go beyond a rookie contract, achieve playoff success, and contend for conference championships is a big miss. They should have been valued as a 3rd round player at the best.

Current personnel leans to a 3-5-3 Two 4 tech and a 0 tech on DL. Brown - McCall - Ioanidis. Likely upgrade at NT in draft. DE too if Jalen Carter falls to 9. Burns and Barno at Edge LB with Shaq, Luvu, and Chinn at ILBs. Shaq and Chinn would rotate out to SS positions post snap when not playing in the box. Horn, Franklin, Henderson as DBs. To play a traditional 34, 2 ILBs needed with Shaq bumping out to SS and Chinn staying at FS. Drafting Sewell and Campbell for ILB would be an easy fix. The versatility of Shaq and Chinn would allow this 34 defense 2 joker safeties that can line up and fill anywhere on the field rather than a traditional 34 SS/FS.

It's easier and a greater probability than a first year HC drafting a 1st round QB and expecting to win a SB or build a dynasty. History/numbers prove this. Do you think 1st year HCs simply draft a 1st round QB and start winning with them? Might as well plan to fire your HC after 3 seasons. Easier to find a Montana or a Brady than it is to grow a Manning or draft 2 similar 1st round QBs in the same year. I'd like to know where all these 1st year HCs and 1st round rookie QB pairings are since they are more feasible. They don't exist like people dream they do. 1st round rookie QBs are overwhelmingly coach killers - especially for 1st year HCs.

The Panthers have moved in a championship direction with the coaching staff. Let's not mess that up by drafting a first round QB in year 1 without having a foundation of success for that QB to stand on. Build the team and let the coaches get their footing before a 1st round QB stirs up expectations.

The myth of the 1st round QB is strong. Nick Foles won a SB. Matt Ryan went to a SB. Carson Wentz led a team to a SB. The reality is 1st round QBs drafted by 1st year coaches have worked out 4 of 35 times to win a SB and 2 of 35 times to establish a dynasty. In their 1st year: 3 HCs traded for QB. 1 QB won the SB. 2 Dynasty HCs (both waited 5 years to draft their SB QB). 5 HCs signed QB. 3 QBs won the SB. 0 Dynasty HCs. 6 HCs drafted QB in year 1. 6 QBs won SB. 4 Dynasty HCs (2 of the 4 had non-1st round SB QBs and more successful dynasties). 21 HCs inherited their starting QB. 15 QBs won the SB. 13 Dynasty HCs (11 did not draft a 1st round QB). Of the 6 HCs who inherited QBs that did not win SBs and were replaced, only 2 of them drafted 1st round QBs who would win the SB. The lesson here as a first year HC with prior championship experience is DO NOT rely on a 1st round rookie QB to set you up for success. The expectations, ownership, and fan base will likely wreck you. Draft a day 3 QB you believe can win a championship. Build a team and ride that QB if he has success, team him with a 30 year old vet franchise QB to take over if he fails. Plan on targeting a QB from college over the next 5 seasons if your late round QB or vet QB can't win in the playoffs for the team you have built. During this process, the coach should have no more than 2 losing seasons in 5 years and be playoff competitive with one of the first 3 QBs they have selected in their tenure.

This has happened 4 times in NFL history. Troy Aikman, Eli Manning, Joe Montana, and Tom Brady. The 3rd and 6th round QBs established greater dynasties with their respective coaches than the 1st round QBs. The other dynasties built up their team. Some dynasty coaches inherited a QB from the previous coach and others waited until they spotted their QB and inserted them into a successful team after their first year. While only 4 dynasty coaches have drafted their QB in year 1, 10 other dynasties have taken the approach of building a team. You could say Walsh and Belichick also focused on the team and made QB secondary while investing in Montana and Brady while riding their success. Most do not talk about the fact that Jimmy Johnson took Troy Aikman with the 1st pick in the 1989 draft and then took Steve Walsh with the 1st pick in the 1989 supplemental draft. The other QB was a Manning. Seems to be much more rare to wait for a Manning or draft multiple #1 QBs in the coaches first season than it is to build a team and draft a mid to late round QB to invest in/believe in and ride their success as long as possible. So, in year 1 as a first year coach... 1. Draft a Manning for a short lived dynasty [Giants] (Next Manning in 2027) 2. Draft two 1st round QBs (similar in style) in the same season, CJ Stroud and Will Levis, for a short lived dynasty [Cowboys] 3. Draft a mid to late round QB and draft defense/receivers for a well built team for a lasting dynasty [49ers/Patriots] 4. Sign/trade for a 30 year old vet QB to build around and insert at a later year a drafted QB into a well built team for consistent winning seasons and championships [Cowboys/Chiefs/Raiders] 5. Inherit a franchise QB from the previous coach [Packers, Dolphins, Commanders, Steelers, Broncos, Giants]. This results in a mix of short and long term dynasties. Drafting a 1st round QB as a first year coach seems to be the worst decision to build a dynasty. Going with Matt Corral, Derek Carr, Jimmy G, Nick Foles, or Cooper Rush and loading up on young QBs, 4th round or later, for the QB room while building the team out seems to be the way to go to build a dynasty.

You want bigger? 3rd round... LSU transfer - 2019 national champion. Put this guy next to him as a 3-4 DE if he falls in the 1st round... Brown - Ika - Carter would be tough for any 5 man OL to block. LBs would be free to roam. If you want to go heavy defense in the draft, could get Carter, Sewell, Ika, and Campbell. Move Shaq to SS and leave Chinn at FS. The combination of Brown, Ika, Carter, Sewell, and Campbell attacking the middle would solve most if not all of the inside running game issue. That would leave Burns and Luvu to aggressively attack the outside and Shaq and Chinn to play inside out going downhill unblocked as the last line of defense against the run.

Drafting a 1st round QB in the first year is extremely risky for a coaching staff. Better luck having that 1st round QB win a SB with the next HC. Just as much success drafting a QB in later rounds by a 1st year HC with much less risk. There have been 8 1st round QBs who have won the SB for the coach/team that drafted them. Only 4 of 35 SB winning coaches have drafted their QB in the 1st round in their first season. Ewbank drafted Namath in his 3rd season. Noll drafted Bradshaw in his 2nd season. Reid drafted Mahomes in his 5th season, and Cowher drafted Roethlisberger in his 13th season. They all started building their team before inserting their QB. Johnson, Coughlin, Ditka, and Harbaugh drafted their SB QBs in the 1st round from the start. Jimmy Johnson drafted 2 QBs with a #1 pick in 1989. Both #1 QBs battled it out for 2 seasons before Johnson decided to trade one of them to the Saints. McMahon and Flacco had short careers and 1 SB championship with their teams while Aikman and Manning went on to retire with their teams with multiple SB rings. Now, the 2 most successful first year coach/QB combos came from non-first round picks. Bill Walsh with Joe Montana, and Bill Belichick with Tom Brady. Montana and Brady have Aikman and Manning beat. It is difficult to have a HC succeed with a QB they drafted in their 1st season. Only 6 HCs have made it. 29 HCs succeeded by building their team and not focusing on the QB position in 1st round of the draft to build their SB champion. This also shows us again there is no difference in success between drafting a 1st round QB or a later round QB. If anything it favors later round QBs with Montana and Brady.

Staley will likely hold down the RBs, and Reich is about wearing down a defense with bigger skill position players that have good hands in the passing game. RBs get as many targets as the TEs. Seems Thomas Brown was hired because he understands the TE position and how Reich wants to get the most out of the TEs in the offensive play calling. Expecting an overhaul of the TE position. Maybe a trade for Jelani Woods. Good possibility of seeing 2 TEs drafted. TEs will have size, speed, and good hands. Makes me wonder how well Thomas Brown knows Darnell Washington - possible 2nd round TE target given what Reich likes in his receivers.

This false narrative is a Huddle myth. There were a group of players that decided to play/stick together through the rebuild (2010/2011) because they wanted to end their careers together. They were a package deal and it was well known the two Utes (team SB leaders) were at the head of this group. Gettleman became the wedge that destroyed all of this with his incompetent ways. He single handidly lost Gross, Smith, and Wharton after a playoff year because he only wanted Gross at a contract below his value. The myth squad will run with Proelh's interview, but all that pointed out was there were some (not all) in the coaching and front office that believed Smith would stunt the growth of the young receivers and Cam. Smith believed young players earn their C patch. Others wanted to push Cam into a C patch regardless of what current captains like Smith and Gross thought. How did that turn out without Smith around? KB never had the leadership or motivation he needed. The leadership he later he wish he had. The same leadership that Lafell showered praise on Smith as Lafell made his way through the NFL. Funchess found his way out the door quickly without a SB role model. Philly brown was here and gone. Smith would have done nothing to make their careers any shorter. The mistake was JR not promoting an innovative GM like Beane instead of going after an old school mindset in Gettleman who believed windows of opportunity did not exist in the NFL. No doubt in my mind Beane would have had Smith, Gross, and Wharton playing for at least 2 more seasons before all retiring a Panther. He would have had Steve Smith Sr, Kelvin Benjamin, Stefon Diggs, Ted Ginn Jr, and Philly Brown as the 2015 receivers. I really wish Gettleman would have listened to Beane over Rivera when it came to trading up for Funchess over getting Diggs later in the draft (Gettleman loved those big receivers over the small ones). Smith would have protected them from Cam while demanding more from all of them alongside Ted Ginn. I believe Benjamin and Diggs would have benefited greatly from this with Diggs instantly connecting with Smith prior to his retirement as a Panther. Cam was always the uberAlpha and would have done it his way and challeneged coaches and captains no matter what. Just needed players like Norman and Smith to challenge Cam and keep him in check instead of having Rivera waste time babysitting his outbursts leading to reprimand/punishment. The OL with Gross - Norwell - Kalil - Turner - Wharton would have had better protection on Cam. This in my opinion would have been the difference between a SB Champion exit as Panthers for Gross, Smith, and Wharton and prolonged success for the franchise. We will never know because obviously the wrong choices were made under Gettleman/Richardson and then Rhule/Tepper. BTW, if Cam Newton couldn't develop among players like Smith and Diggs, do you think Beane would have not traded his MVP ego for picks in 2017 or 2018 while walking away with a Patrick Mahomes or Josh Allen from those drafts?

You are correct. You have to go back to the Gross retirement and the multiple meetings Gross had with Gettleman before he made the decision to retire. Gross was there for his teammates. Wharton and Smith were always part of Gross taking less for one last SB push. Gettleman did not commit to keeping them all on - just Gross for a lower paying contract. This got back to Smith. Then Gettleman opened his mouth at the scouting combine with his view that Smith HAD a great career, was not part of the start of Gettleman's process, and would not be in Carolina forever. Smith felt disrespected for having to hear about Gettleman's thoughts from players who were at the front of Gettleman's process. The Gross retirement sealed Smith wanting to leave and asking to be released. They were always a package deal, and I think Gettleman completely missed that dynamic. Would have been nice to have Smith, Wharton and Gross for that SB push, but Gettleman had a knack for messing things up as a GM. He was either very manipulative and destructive, or he was incompetent and clumsy. This eventually sealed his fate as a short lived GM who tore down a team and failed while riding on the success that was left at his feet.

Bijan Robinson is not a Reich/Staley RB They want a 230 pound RB who easily is hidden behind the OL squats 800+ lbs, runs a 4.4 and catches 80% of his targets in stride. The RBs in the 2023 draft that match a Reich/Staley RB are Zach Charbonet and Raschon Johnson. Taller than they like, but they are receiving threats, physical, and make defenders miss. Abanikanda would be the top Reich/Staley RB if he puts 5 to 10 lbs of weight on and runs a 40 in the 4.4 range. Abanikanda appears to play faster in game than his 4.5 40 time. You will notice they want offensive skill position players that will physically wear down their one on one matchups in the passing game.

Great and interesting get. Caldwell comes for one of two reasons. One, to be a HC that can get a QB he wants to develop or, two, reunite with coaches he wants to succeed with the promise of developing QBs he has had his eye on. With this hire, I believe the Panthers will make a move to trade for the QB Caldwell wants to work with - Justin Fields. A Fields trade would make it clear to me that the OC position is being held for John DeFilippo. He would have direct ties to Reich, Caldwell, Staley, McCown, Fields, and Foles. Jim Caldwell wanted to take over for Nagy and become the HC of the Bears for the 2022 season. Next we will see Ron Turner, Clyde Christensen, and Tom Moore walking through the doors. It's a reunion!!!

Reich will keep Thomas and Ricci before Tremble. Reich wants TEs with a high catch % and a big body to box out defenders. Tremble is not a Reich TE. Good thing this draft is loaded with TEs. I expect Reich to keep Thomas and draft 2 more big pass catching TEs. Same with receivers. He wants tall big bodies with speed. It wouldn't surprise me to see him draft Quentin Johnston WR at #9 and Musgrave/Mayer/Washington in round 2 if they fall. Trading for Jelani Woods is also a move I can see Reich wanting to do.

The sexy next year QB who is likely to struggle and bust in the NFL is for college fans. 1st round QBs worth drafting are about 3 a decade, and that is for 32 NFL teams. Find a championship proven coach. Invest in a QB of his choice (regardless of round) for at least 2 seasons (want a QB who projects at least 10 years and is no younger than 25). 85% of these QBs will get a team to the playoffs. Stack that QB with 7 targets he likes to throw to in clutch situations. Drill the offense on scripted opening drives and 4/2/1 minute drives. That is all that is needed for offensive point scoring. Refining the QB position with championship qualities will take you from a consistent playoff team to a contender. Thankfully championship qualities are not highly valued among scouts, the combine, GMs, and the draft. You can find these championship QBs from the 1st to the 7th round. There are even championship quality QBs who go undrafted and play in other leagues. Josh McCown even said that he learned more and developed more playing with the Hartford Colonials than he ever did sitting on an NFL roster. The NFL tried to pull him away from the Colonials and he chose to stay with Dave Ragone (now Falcons OC) and follow his coaching mentor/advisor John DeFilippo (Reich's QB coach with SB winning Eagles/Now HC of New Orleans Breakers) advice.

Steichen is using Mike Shula's 2015 playbook.

No Lamar. Let him bury another team. If you didn't want Cam after his 7th season, why do you want Lamar to build around for his 6th and 7th season as he is ending his career. QBs that play this style of game you draft and use up like a RB. 7 to 9 year career as the hits take their toll.

TOP 6 under 27 in the NFL are: 1. Brock Purdy 2. Desmond Ridder 3. Justin Herbert 4. Josh Allen 5. Joe Burrow 6. Tyler Huntley

And then you realize in 2017 the 2022 lowest ranked #16 Chiefs D would be ranked top 10 next to the highest ranked #4 Eagles D. Rankings and points scored is relative to the field - not to seasons. Rank every team together over the past 7 seasons, then we'll talk. The defense that gets a top NFL offense to make the most mistakes wins. The offensive game has changed, but the better defense still wins . We'd be having 60 and 70 point games if offense won championships. This isn't college. Turnovers, pressures, QB ToP, and field position are more important to me than yards and fractions of points. Give me a defense that averages 3 scores or fewer per game and an offense that averages 4 scores or more per game. Rankings don't matter. One year they will be top 10 and the next they will be middle of the pack. Let's remember the Chiefs don't win the SB without a defensive TD and the defense flipping the field with a 3 and out in the 4th quarter to set up the offense. Awarding the offense for those defensive points?