CPantherKing

Replacing DJ Moore's production? You can reach into a hat and pick out any WR. 9 targets per game; 59.1% catch; 8.4 ypt; 41.1% 1st; 3.4% TD. Ashton Dulin 63.5% catch; 8.7 ypt; 44.2% 1st; 5.8% TD In case you don't know the name, he is from Malone University and went undrafted. He has been the #4 WR for the Colts under Reich the last 2 seasons and Reich has had him on the Colts roster all 4 seasons he has been there. Toss him 9 targets a game and he outperforms DJ Moore. No need for money ball here. You can throw darts at a board and not worry about losing production. Not hard to find 4 WRs who can produce better than DJ Moore. You can draft 4 rookies in mid to late rounds in this draft and get better production from all of them with Cam Newton and his bum shoulder throwing to them. Moore has had 5 seasons to show he can be a playmaker, and Reich did not see it just like the entire fan base that kept hoping he was a legit #1. Moore will be a good #2 somewhere, but Thielen is a better and more reliable #2.

There aren't many WRs in the draft that fit what Reich would want in his #1. Quentin Johnston (1st), Bryce Ford-Wheaton (late 2nd), Dontay Demus Jr (3rd/4th), and Elijah Higgins (4th/5th). Reich will push to reach for a receiver he believes fits his system. Only TE in the draft that fits what Reich wants in a TE is Zach Kuntz. I'm sure Reich will be working/asking on getting Jelani Woods and Nick Foles from the Colts in a trade package with the Colts. I could see Reich placing all these rookie WRs as the #1 target in his offense and having Thielen over or under the rookie as the #2 reliable option. These are not my top WRs of choice from the draft to build an offense, but I get what Reich is doing with his offense and wanting a WR that will physically wear down a secondary over the course of a game.

Don't deflate them all now with reality. They want to believe this is how championship teams are built before the new coaches can even get reps with their new team that needs a new culture and a foundation that has yet to be put in place. Chark wanted a longer contract at more money. Reich wanted Chark as depth for his 3 WR offensive fit. So, rent him for a year and take care of that depth spot next season. Reich needs to find his big work horse/playmaker #1 WR now. Thielen is the #2 and Chark is the #3. Still a big void for Reich's play calling at that WR position. I believe he'll target a WR in the draft for that spot.

You are better off avoiding a 1st round QB unless they are a consensus pedigree 5 star QB who has had consistent success in college over 4 years. You will miss a lot more than you hit and waste the draft capital needed to build a championship roster. My standard for a top 10 pick QB is instant starter, playoff winner, consistent SB contender, and min 10 year career. Otherwise, you are just as well off drafting the 1st round QB who falls out of the 1st round. 85% of QBs who are given a franchise QB opportunity make it to the playoffs. Doesn't matter what round. 1st round picks actually get to the playoffs 80% of the time. 6th round to undrafted QBs who are given the franchise QB opportunity get to the playoffs 90% of the time. The top 10 QBs you listed who are given a franchise QB opportunity get to the playoffs 70% of the time. My standard of success for QBs related to their draft position is not who gets drafted or who gets a franchise QB opportunity. I want to know what QBs successfully lead their draft team for multiple years. Level 1 success is getting the team to the playoffs. Level 2 success is winning with their team in the playoffs. Level 3 success is getting their team to a championship. Level 4 success is winning a championship and getting to the SB with their drafted team. Level 5 success is winning the SB with their team. Break each level of success down by round. You will be surprised how overrated 1st round QBs have been and continue to be. 1st round QBs who have failed their draft position and redeemed themselves with another team at the SB level happen every decade. Jim Plunkett/Doug Williams from the 70s. Steve Young from the 80s. Trent Dilfer from the 90s. Matthew Stafford from the 2000s. There will be one of the many failed 1st round QBs from the 2010s that will add themselves to this list (Panthers fans have been hoping to find this rare failure through their lineup of Bridgewater, Darnold, and Mayfield). My money is on Lamar Jackson achieving this once in a decade feat.

No. It's in the CBA if you want to read the legalese details on how it works. It's 'no first refusal' is separated throughout the document.

This tells me that Houston knows they are getting Bryce Young at #1. Carolina agrees to trade the #1 pick to the Texans as long as the Texans do what they want. They have agreed to compensation and that the Texans will not pursue Stroud. Now, the Panthers set their targets on convincing the Colts to trade up for Stroud. So, an army shows up for the Panthers and no one shows up for the Texans. What does this tell the Colts? It tells them that they are not getting Young and if they want Stroud, they need to agree to a deal with the Panthers. I expect the Colts and Texans to not be showing up at all to Levis and Richardson pro days. The Panthers meant it when they said they wanted to control the draft, and they are doing it one pro day at a time. I expect the Panthers to get the #2, #12, #33, and 2024 2nd round pick from the Texans in exchange for Young. Before Levis' pro day, I expect the Panthers to have an agreement made with the Colts for the #4, #35, TE Jelani Woods, and 2024 1st round pick from the Colts in exchange for position for Stroud. Also, the Colts will agree to not show up to the pro days for Levis and Richardson. At this point, the Panthers line up the Seahawks, Lions, and Raiders for the position to get their QB. One of them will give up picks to jump to the #4 spot for their pick of QB. I believe it will be the Lions wanting to jump the Seahawks for Richardson. Lions give up their #6, #18, 2024 2nd round pick, and 2024 5th round pick. The Panthers arrange a deal with Raiders to move up to 6 and take Will Levis contingent on the Seahawks passing on Levis. Raiders give up #7, #38, 2024 1st round and 2024 4th round. Panthers trade #18 and a 2024 1st round pick for Lamar Jackson. Panthers turn #9, #61, 2024 1st round, 2025 2nd round, and DJ Moore into... Panthers have #7, #12, #33, #35, #38, #39, QB Lamar Jackson, TE Jelani Woods, 2024 1st round pick, 2x 2024 2nd round pick, 2024 4th round pick, and 2024 5th round pick. Panthers draft DT/DE Jalen Carter, WR Quentin Johnston, EDGE Nolan Smith, NT/DT Siaki Ika, NT/DT Mazi Smith, RB Israel Abanikanda, TE Zach Kuntz, RB Chase Brown, WR Bryce Ford-Wheaton, and DB Cory Trice Jr with their 10 draft picks. QB-Lamar Jackson/Andy Dalton RB-Miles Sanders/Israel Abanikanda/Chase Brown TE-Hayden Hurst/Jelani Woods/Zach Kuntz/Tommy Tremble WR-Quentin Johnston/Adam Thielen/(DJ Chark)/Terrace Marshall Jr/Bryce Ford-Wheaton/Laviska Shenault OL-Bradley Bozeman/Taylor Moton/Austin Corbett/Ikem Ekwonu/Brady Christensen DL-Derrick Brown/Siaki Ika/Mazi Smith/Jalen Carter EDGE-Brian Burns/Nolan Smith ILB-Jeremy Chinn/Shaq Thompson/Frankie Luvu CB-Jaycee Horn/CJ Henderson/Cory Trice Jr/Donte Jackson S-Vonn Bell/Xavier Woods Not exactly what I would want, believe are the best players in the draft, or believe will be the best in the NFL. This is what I believe Reich/Fitterer/Tepper will want to achieve going in to the 2023 season. Let's see it play out. Tepper is going to take the entire NFL for a wild ride in the draft just like he has with this coaching staff. It doesn't stop with trading up for the #1 pick and simply drafting a QB.

So, defense is more important than offense to this Reich led coaching staff to set the foundation of the team. A coach who likes to load up on 2nd round picks to set up his roster in the first 2 years, loads up on defensive picks in the early rounds of the first 2 drafts (6 defensive and 1 offensive skill position in rounds 1 to 3) and skill position players on day 3 of the draft. Yet, the thinking is they want a QB with the #1 pick who is not a consensus #1 franchise QB from day 1. No chance they stockpile 2nd round picks by baiting QB hungry teams and go after their top defensive player in the 2023 draft. Right?

In a Reich offense, he builds the passing game around 8 receivers - 3 WRs, 3 TEs, and 2 RBs. They need to be strong and tough. He wants tall TEs. WRs and TEs need have 4.5 speed and RBs need to be sub 4.5. Appears to me Reich wants 1 vet leader at RB and TE that fits his system. I expect he will want to draft 2 TEs. Zach Kuntz is the only TE that fits what Reich wants. Jelani Woods was that TE build last year. He wants excellent TE speed, height, and great hands in his TE. If QB is not the target with the #1, I could see the Panthers switching spots with the Texans so they can have Bryce Young, and then swapping with the Colts so they can have CJ Stroud. The Panthers could pick up 3 2nd round picks and Jelani Woods by moving down to #4. The Panthers could have Hayden Hurst, Jelani Woods, and Zach Kuntz for their TE packages. Panthers would also add the #33, 35, and 65 picks to go along with the #4 and 39 pick. This would add immediate impact players at several positions to pair with the vets that have been signed.

Be sure to inform Evero and Capers about this since they messed up and went with 6-3 240 OLBs in Denver. Browning and Cooper were the OLBs that got the starts for the Broncos. Chubb is the unusual 34 OLB at his size. The average for their OLBs was 6-3 252. Evero goes with long and fast OLBs. Will Anderson is exactly what Evero looks for in a 34 OLB while being a half inch taller and 1 pound heavier. You should also know the DE is over the OT in a 34 defense. You do not know about a 34 defense and position responsibilities/matchups. Clearly it is common in 2022 and Evero will go with smaller OLBs than Will Anderson. I used Capers 34 defense in Carolina as an example, but I guess you don't know much about that era for the Panthers. As for Ekwonu, you can stop the lies in hopes people will believe you. I have never said he is a bust. You all keep that going. I said he is an ALL PRO Guard playing/struggling with his pass blocking at LT. You keep an eye on Glass. He is still around, and the NFL QB position has a long history of successful franchise QBs coming from other professional leagues.

Tell me you don't know what an edge/spur/dog does in a 34/35 defense without telling me you don't know. I'll let Kevin Greene and Lamar Lathon know they can't be 34 OLBs in a defense that can win because they are some of the worst tackling and coverage LBs in NFL history.

Watch as the Panthers target Will Anderson to complete the best 34 LB combo to keep their promise to Evero/Capers. Will Anderson - Shaq Thompson - Jeremy Chinn - Brian Burns. Rotate to a 35 with Luvu coming in at LB for Xavier Woods. This will be fun to see and give the Panthers the best chance at winning under Reich while they pick up extra picks to stock up on receiving talent at TE, RB, and WR. Breer and Keyshawn are on point. Panthers make the Texans and Colts pay up for Bryce Young and CJ Stroud.

Amazing? How many championships has been part of in his illustrious career? Who has he been replaced by at every stop? The weight on any #1 pick is enormous and crushing. They will need much more around them and be among the best in NFL history than a QB who has never been able to make success happen. There is a reason top 5 QBs continually struggle and fail at a predictable rate and in a predictable fashion.

No QB has ever been worth the value of 5 1st round picks. The expectations are going to be huge on this QB and GM from day 1. The most pressure any rookie QB will be subjected to in NFL history, and there is no foundation for a rookie QB to stand on with the Panthers. Dynasty or bust. A single SB win in 10 years is not enough for this investment.

Another big miss in the offseason. Any GM with a 36 year old Dalton on their QB board should lose their job.

1st year coaching staff. No foundation to build on. Giving away the value of 5 1st round picks for a QB that is not a clear consensus day one pro ready QB. A severe lack of defensive playmakers and leadership. You have a better shot at being a SB contender in 3 years with a college coaching staff, trading down out of every first round for the next 3 years, and signing all 30 year old free agent QBs. Bill Walsh, Jimmy Johnson, Mike Holmgren, Andy Reid, and Bill Belichick would all have been set up to be fired in 3 losing seasons by their GM if this is how they started off year 1.

Trade down. Build a team. Load up the roster with 4 QBs that have been developed by championship coaches. Last year was the miracle method ala 1999 Rams. This year is no clear 1st round franchise QB for a dynasty so load up the stable with coachable QBs and build the team ala 1992 Packers. Grab up 4 QBs (Brett Favre 2nd rd trade, Ty Detmer 9th rd, Mark Brunell 5th rd, and Kurt Warner UDFA). Round up overlooked prospects and let the QB gurus do their work (Holmgren, Reid, Gruden, and Mariucci). Pass on the Klinglers (Levis/Richardson) pass on the Maddoxs (Stroud/Young). Trade down and build up the defense or find freakish receivers in the 1st round.

Bart Starr, Len Dawson, Johnny Unitas, Roger Staubach, Ken Stabler, Jim Plunkett, Joe Montana, Joe Theismann, Doug Williams, Jim Hostetler, Mark Rypien, Steve Young, Brett Favre, Kurt Warner, Trent Dilfer, Tom Brady, Brad Johnson, Drew Brees, Russell Wilson, Nick Foles, Jimmy Garoppolo, Matt Hasselbeck, Jake Delhomme, Rich Gannon, Chris Chandler, Neil O'Donnell, Stan Humphries, Steve Grogan, David Woodley, Ken Anderson, Ron Jaworski, Vince Ferragamo, Fran Tarkenton, Joe Kapp, Daryle Lamonica, Mark Brunell, Jake Plummer, Erik Kramer, Jay Schroeder, Wade Wilson, Dieter Brock, Jim Zorn, Danny White, Dan Fouts, Pat Haden, Bob Lee, James Harris, George Blanda, Bill Nelsen, Jack Kemp, Don Meredith, and Brock Purdy all agree with you. That would be 52 of the 107 QBs who have seen an NFL championship game. 85% of all QBs who are given a franchise opportunity make it to the playoffs (6th round to undrafted get to the playoffs more [91%] than 1st round QBs [81%]). Then you have QBs who win playoff games and never get to a championship game. Then you have the championship QBs listed above who you have championed. For those who take exception to history, there have been 42 QBs who have gone to a championship game since 2000. 14 are on the above list, and 11 of them went to the SB. 12 have been 1st round picks that went to the SB for the team that drafted them. In the last 10 seasons, there have been 17 QBs making it to that coveted championship game. 5 are on the above list, and 4 have been to the SB. Only 5 1st round picks have made it to the SB for the team that drafted them. Don't look at the greater probability of success with the average Joe's. Don't factor in the 100% increase in 1st round QBs over the last 12 years (40 1st round QBs; 85 over first 44 seasons). Nothing to see there. They are not busts, they are just 1st round projects - 3rd time's a charm. Oversaturating the NFL with 1st round projects is in no way decreasing opportunities for the late round and undrafted QBs with a greater probability of getting a team to a SB (4 in 5 is definitely not better than 5 in 10). Drafting a 1st round QB definitely has a clear advantage over those average Joe's. Those Joe's just can't keep up with those 1st round Joe's. We all will be happy trading up in the 1st round for that Joe Flacco or Joe Burrow instead of getting that Joe Montana and Jerry Rice, or that Joe Theismann and Art Monk. And 1st round franchise picks have been the best for building a decade long dynasty. There's... Terry Bradshaw compared to Johnny Unitas, Bart Starr, Roger Staubach, Stabler/Plunkett, Montana/Young, Theismann/Williams/Rypien, and Brady. Ok, well 1st round picks have dominated the half decade dynasty with Bob Griese, Troy Aikman, Ben Roethlisberger and Patrick Mahomes. Decade long dynasties are overrated. Let's trade 5 1st round picks to trade up for Bryce Young. Nothing else will give us a similar or better shot at winning a championship!!!

I was pulled toward solving this puzzle in the late 80s and early 90s while watching the 49ers and Raiders up close, and playing under different championship football programs/coaches in California and North Carolina. I focused my offensive study on Walsh, Madden, Flores, Shanahan, and Holmgren. The focus was on reverse engineering their process on evaluating players and their process of developing a QB. How were they able to spot and develop the QBs that would be franchise QBs and playoff worthy at such a consistent rate? This led to the primary QB KPIs of decision making, pocket instincts/athleticism, clutchness, accuracy, control of vision, toughness, and self-regulation. All these qualities have measurables in the game of football. All are transferable from college to the NFL. Secondary measurables are physical like speed, agility, stamina, height, and weight. When determining draft value, the players making the cut are filtered into 4 roster values. This will establish a reliable gauge to choose QBs for the pro level. Some should be drafted in mid rounds, and others in later rounds. Rarely should you draft any QB in the 1st round without meeting 5 criteria. The best strategy is to take a QB that has dropped past their expected value - never reach. Another quick way to find NFL champion QBs is to understand QB is an extension of a coach and a receiver is an extension of their QB. Focus in on coaches with a strong track record of directly producing NFL QBs. A quick test is to look for a pair/group of WRs/TEs that are projecting to be drafted based on stats. If these receivers look like projects, the QB should get a closer look. If these receivers look polished and ready day one for an NFL team, they are likely carrying the QB. You will be lucky to find one QB in a draft pool that qualifies. Multiple QBs show up in a draft pool maybe once a decade. Expect to go 3 to 5 years before a QB shows up, and understand 85% of all QBs will be able to lead a good team into the playoffs if a coach shows commitment to them as the starter. As an example, Tom Brady graded out at 6.2 and Patrick Mahomes graded out at 6.1. CJ Stroud grades out at 5.6. An average NFL QB would grade out around 4.5 to 5.0. Baker Mayfield graded out as a 1.0 failing to clear the minimum hurdles in 4 of the 6 KPIs. Brady was the only QB of these 4 coming out of college that cleared all 6 NFL hurdles. He was the only QB of the 4 NOT drafted in the 1st round. Yes, you can predict the success of some college QBs, and you can hit on 80% of your QBs selected purposefully and patiently in the NFL draft just like Bill Walsh, Mike Holmgren, and Andy Reid.

I understand. Most people think SB winning QBs are seasonsed playoff QBs with a reputation for winning. Unfortunately, this is not true. Those QBs are dynasty QBs. Look at the playoff record of any QB winning their first SB. This century (excluding QBs drafted by their SB winning coach): Dilfer 1-1 (28), Johnson 1-3 (34), P.Manning 3-6/11-13 (30/39), Brees 1-2 (30), Rodgers 0-1 (27), Foles 0-1 (28), Brady 30-11 (43), and Stafford 0-3 (33). Average age 32/33. Going back to the 80s, Jim Plunkett was a bust 1st round pick. He was a reserve for the Raiders for 2 years and then won his 1st of 2 SBs at the age of 33 while never seeing the playoffs. Fran Tarkenton never saw the playoffs until he was 33 after being sent packing by the Vikings and then sent back to the Vikings when the Giants gave up on him. He never won the SB, but he went to 3 SBs over 4 seasons (6-4 playoff record). This has been consistent for QBs among every decade of the SB era. It's the coaches that we want to have the playoff wins under their belt and been to championships.

Well he did need to lead 10 GWDs over the last 2 seasons with the Gruden fiasco and getting Josh McDaniels as his HC. The Raiders are a 3 win team without Carr and the Panthers would have been an 11/12 win team with Carr and Wilks for a full year. Saints are a 9/10 win team with Carr. 38.5% GWD in the past 2 seasons. He is at the prime age for a SB contending QB. 65% comp tells you he makes good decisions more often than most NFL QBs. 70% is elite which he was near the last 2 seasons in Gruden's system. He is one of the most accurate passers in the NFL. It wasn't Carr.

Waiting next year? A team should rarely draft a 1st round QB to be a franchise QB. Patience with a philosophy, system, and developed KPIs is more important. Drafting a QB in the 1st round is the worst way to find a QB for franchise success. Only 8 1st round QBs have won a SB for the coach that drafted them. Teams rebuilding without SB leadership from the previous regime have been successful 5 times with a 1st round QB. A rebuilding team with no championship leadership is better off going with a 30 year old experience FA, add a young QB to develop, and use the 1st round pick on DT/LB or a freakish receiver. The correct fit with a 1st round QB will eventually be there if the other QBs cannot win at a championship level. Have the team ready for that QB.

Anything is too much to trade for these QBs. Using a 1st round pick on them is too much. No clear cut QB that will make a difference in the NFL playoffs. AR-15 makes poor decisions in game situations. Levis fails to move the ball or make good throws without a vertical field with his lack of vision - hail marry run and gun QB. Stroud is really good as a game manager (NFL Level), but he is not clutch and will lead a lot of FG drives in the NFL; offensive weakness is redzone under pressure. Young is a good distributor of the ball and is among the smartest and quickest of the bunch, but he breaks down under pressure and throws the ball up away from defenders while missing defenders in position for a TO who are hidden due to his height. Stroud and Young are the better of the two. Young will not consistently win against NFL defenses and will be a high turnover weakness for a team when the game is on the line and he needs to make a play with his arm. Stroud will be good for FG drives, but will struggle to succeed in the redzone at the NFL level. This is the 1999 QB draft all over again without a Donovan McNabb. You have an extremely athletic QB with poor decision making skills in game with Richardson (Smith replaced by Jon Kitna), a smaller point guard type QB with quick releases and wild plays with desperation heaves when it breaks down in Bryce Young (McNown replace by Jim Miller), an excellent college game manager who struggles in clutch situations near the redzone in CJ Stroud (Couch replaced by Jeff Garcia), and a big armed QB with a lack of field visions and a knack for turnovers while holding the ball too long in Will Levis (Culpepper replaced by Brad Johnson). These 1st rounders replaced by a 6th round QB, and 3 QBs who were not taken in the first 7 rounds of the draft. UDFAs turned out to be more accomplished than these 1st round QBs. Expecting disappointing QB performances from Stroud, Young, Levis, and Richardson. 1st round QBs replaced with UDFAs being more effective NFL QBs all over again.

QB rating is repetition dependent to compare to the distribution of historical QB performances/limits. Completion percentage is a measure of decision making. Who did you trust as a receiver? Did you go through your progressions? Did you choose to place the ball away from dangerous defenders and challenge the weaker defenders directly with one on one matchups. You know within 5 to 10 throws if the QB is making good decisions. I scale a QBs decision making as a passer: below 50% - poor; 50 to 60% - average; 60 to 65% - good; 65 to 70% - excellent; 70% or greater- elite. As a measure for overall passer rating, I will only include games that a QB has achieved at least 35 pass attempts. My minimum of 35 attempts in game is based on play balance for the greatest probability of a win. I also expect a QB to produce GWD and winning with pass attempts exceeding 40 is a strong indicator of a championship QB. Ex. Tom Brady has the most GWD and 76% of those GWD are 35 or more passes; 55% are 40 or more passes (and good to elite level decision making is indicated by the comp% in these GWDs). Darnold is 4-15 in these games with ratings in the 30s/40s and comp% below 50%. 2 of his 5 GWD fall in these wins. None of his wins were greater than 25 pass attempts in 2022. His 1 GWD had 15 pass attempts with a comp% of 33%.

Reminds me of when La'el Collins fell from #2 first round OT to UDFA because he was being questioned by police for a shooting death. Carter is likely in that same group of player alongside Collins and Suh. I believe Jim Caldwell wanted to part ways with Suh as the Lions HC.

It hasn't worked for the 4 first year coaches to get a top 10 QB. One of them won a SB and it was with a 3rd round free agent QB - not the 1st round waste of a QB. Trading up for a 1st round QB has killed vet coaches and multiple coaches who have made it to the SB. Joe Gibbs went to 4 SBs and won 3 SBs with an inherited CFL QB, a 1st round FA QB, and a 6th round drafted QB. He did not draft a 1st round player in 4 of his 11 drafts during his first stint with Washington. When he decided to trade up for a 1st round QB his coaching career ended. Trading up for a 1st round QB has worked for 1 HC in 29 drafts of the 57 year SB era. This is historically a coach killer, and you should never do it unless you have a pedigree 1st round QB like Manning or Luck. Let's not be trailblazers again following the last moon shot with hiring a college coach. The HC and coaching staff is primed for a SB championship. Don't ruin it with a 1st round QB in year one.