CPantherKing

Colts GM likes to bet his houses?

Let everyone dive into the over valued QBs for another year. Question should be about what do you want from a QB? Playoffs? Playoff wins? Conference championship? SB championship? Dynasty QB? Then look at round value of QBs for each category when given a franchise opportunity. If they are never given an opportunity to lead a franchise, you can't consider them. There will always be QBs capable of winning a SB and being a dynasty QB that never realize it because teams choose to never give them an opportunity. Now, look at elements of QB longevity if you want a dynasty QB. If there are flags on a QB that may lead to their longevity or SB potential from being compromised, you let another team take the long shot and waste draft capital. QBs like Drew Brees, Kyler Murray, Bryce Young, and Russell Wilson should never be drafted in the 1st. If they fall to the 2nd or 3rd round and everything else pointed to them being a 1st round pick, then draft them and commit to them for several years while you get immediate impact players in the 1st round. Parcells knows the probability and risk. He knows the value of wasting 1st round value. The data has shown that the dramatic increase of 1st round QBs selected in the past 15 seasons has not led to a significant return of NFL championship success for the teams investing in rookie QBs.

For those who know Bryce Young's philosophy and his family, you understand you are getting a QB who will exit the NFL early like an Andrew Luck. Not because he has to, but because he has had his fill of football and wants to open his next chapter in life. You are not getting a 10 to 20 year QB mentality with Young. You are getting the short king for a short ride who will play the game the way he sees fit until he has had his fill and football loses it's fun. That philosophy is great for HS and college, but it won't hold up to fighting through the tough times in the NFL to be the best when the game becomes a grind and a job that requires the perseverance to push through no matter the cost for the betterment of the team to be the best of the best in a game that means nothing in the big picture of life. It takes a certain type of player and mind to achieve a franchise QB level like Brady, Manning, Montana, Unitas, Staubach, and Favre. Young is not that personality/mindset.

The QB value in the 2023 draft reminds me of 2018 and 2011 drafts. There isn't a championship NFL QB in the top of the bunch and none are worth a 1st round pick. One of them will emerge as a playoff quality QB, but all are overvalued as 1st round picks. I expect the same reaction I got during those QB draft classes. I believe the Panthers deal Young to the Texans and Stroud to the Colts. The Texans are not going to want the Colts to be the ones to get Young.

I've laid this out before. The Panthers moved up to deal the QBs. They do not have an internal consensus on a #1 QB. Lamar Jackson is still an option if they can get the price down by having other teams hand over #1 picks. If they can, they will deal all 4 QBs to other teams and go get Lamar Jackson. If they are put in a spot where they have to draft a QB because no one wanted to move up, they end up with Young or Stroud. I believe teams want Young, Stroud, and Richardson enough that they will move up to get them, and the Panthers control the entire QB market at the moment. I imagine the Panthers are looking at this as a no lose situation. It will be fun, but I doubt the Panthers stay put at #1. If the Texans don't move on Young, I could easily see the Colts trading up to get him and haunting the Texans in their own division. The Panthers keep Stroud and Young out of the NFC with both of them going to the Colts and Texans with the Texans under pressure. I then see the Panthers looking to deal Richardson to the Seahawks or Lions if they pay the price. Then the Panthers are in a position to deal Levis if there are any takers from the Colts, Raiders, or Titans. The Panthers make sure the Falcons and Bucs do not get to sniff a QB in the first round. We will see how it plays out, but I believe we will see Lamar Jackson teaming back up with Bozeman and Hurst after the draft if teams truly want these rookie QBs. Meanwhile, the Panthers still get a good 1st round pick or 2 in the the 2023 draft and stock up on draft capital for next years draft. It will be fun to watch.

So, championship teams don't rely on 1st round picks. Already knew that, but good to see more data backing it up.

In a 34 the NT is suppose to take up 2 blockers. The DE should take up 2 blockers as well slanting across the nose of the OT to the hip of the OG. With a good front 3, the OL should need 6 blockers. If the DL can not beat one on one matchups, then it is the DL that is the issue and not the ILBs. If 4 blockers are committed to the 3 DL, and 1 blocker gets to an ILB, there is still a free ILB to fill the hole and make the tackles with the SS coming down in the box behind the free ILB. If Sam Mills (who was regularly 225 to 230 lbs playing weight) was 6 inches taller and faster, would he have been unable to hold up to an NFL offense for an entire game/season?

Bumper Pool made Drew Sanders. Sanders was converted to LB this past year and Pool would make the calls and cover up for Sanders on all of his blitzes. You can see Pool in many of Sanders highlights on the play or coming in to clean up the play. Sanders is athletic and needed to leave Alabama to raise his draft stock, but Bumper Pool is the real value at LB from Arkansas. As for Sanders v Campbell, there is no doubt Campbell is ready to play LB at the NFL level and Sanders is not.

Well Fitt has been kicking 1.000 at assessing the value of some of the most sought after 1st round QBs. Cam Newton, Teddy Bridgewater, Sam Darnold, Baker Mayfield He has the eye of Bill Walsh who needed minutes to tell if a QB has the skills/talents/mind to succeed in the NFL. He is in no way following the crowd who talk up and rate these QBs as a 1st round QB. He will load up on the 1st round gems just like Bill Walsh, Joe Gibbs, Dick Vermeil, Jon Gruden, Mike Holmgren, Pete Carroll, and Sean Payton. Obviously, this QB crop is going to win SBs for decades. No way they end up tanking like 1979, 1987, 1999, 2002, 2006, 2011, 2012, 2018, and 2021 1st round QBs. 1st round drafts with multiple champion QBs going in the first 10 picks are not a once in a quarter century event. The QBs being talked about in the first round top 10 have the same feeling as the 2018 QB draft with Mayfield (so impressive; Young), Darnold (so accurate; Stroud), Allen (so much potential; Richardson), and Rosen (so prototypical but cocky; Levis). Is Hendon Hooker the Lamar Jackson going at the end of the 1st or dropping into the 2nd round? I'm sure next year will be filled with SB champion 1st round prospects again, just like 2018, 2020, 2021, 2022, and now 2023. Beware Fitt. The 2023 QB class is overrated.

A great QB from the 1st round that has been able to transcend any system? So, that would be... Great coaches have proven they can produce more championship QBs than great QBs have proven they can produce championship coaches. Start with Joe Gibbs with Jim Hart, Dan Fouts, Joe Theismann, Doug Williams, and Mark Rypien. Bill Walsh with Ken Anderson, Dan Fouts, Joe Montana, and Steve Young. Mike Holmgren with Steve Young, Brett Favre, and Matt Hasselbeck. Andy Reid with Brett Favre, Donovan McNabb, and Patrick Mahomes. Better success with a great coach and a non-1st round QB. Use the 1st round pick on a generational playmaking talent like Will Anderson, an impact player out of the gates like Jalen Carter, or a freakish WR that will be a playmaker in year one like Quentin Johnston.

Lamar Jackson, Cam Newton, and Colin Kaepernick all in the same QB room. All get playing time with their own packages. Pair them up with their TE, RB, and C of choice. Rotate units. Top performing unit gets to play 4th quarter if the game is on the line. Championship plan. Better than any Capers, Seifert, Fox, Rivera, and Rhule offensive game plan. Let's hear it for all the Lamar, Cam, and Kap stans!!!

High ceiling means 3 coaching staffs and 12+ years to be a championship contending QB. Same trajectory for Justin Fields. He may need 4 coaching staffs.

Skewing? That was raw data from the last 15 seasons. I'll throw you the opportunities for the SB era if you want it. Also, players drafted does not equate to opportunities. There are far more players drafted than there are opportunities and there were fewer opportunities in the 60s and 70s. Do you know why?

There have been 169 franchise QB opportunities in the past 15 seasons since the 2008 draft. 120 QBs have been awarded these opportunities, and 57 of them have been 1st round QBs. 50 of these QBs (88%) have gone to the playoffs (26 have been 1st round picks). 31 have won a playoff game. 19 have been to a conference championship. 12 have been to a SB. 5 have won the SB. With the teams that drafted them, 10 1st rounders went to a championship game, 5 (50%) won their conference, and 2 (20%) won the SB. All other QBs who did this for their first team/drafted team, 5 went to a championship game, 4 (80%) won their conference championship, and 2 (40%) won the SB. If you stick with a QB regardless of round, you will get to the playoffs. 1st round QBs will do well at winning playoff games and getting to a championship game. When it comes to winning conference championships and SB championships, good non-1st round QBs out perform their good 1st round QB counterparts at the highest level. You are better off with a QB that does not come from the 1st round if the goal is a championship. This has held since the 1960s. Dynasty QBs with longevity are consistently non-1st rounders. A team can move through 3 non-1st round QBs at the same rate teams move on from a 1st round QB who struggles to get to a conference championship game. Do you want 3 shots at a more successful championship/dynasty QB, or do you want 1 shot at a QB that will win more playoff games while seeing the same amount of championship success if not less? Make what you want from the data, but this is what it tells me. You can hang on to that #1 pick and win playoff games, but you'd have a better shot at being a championship team with a non-1st rounder. Good 1st rounders will take 6 to 7 years on average to win a championship. Good non-1st rounders will take 3 to 4 years to win a championship. Keep in mind that SB champion coaches have a 3 to 5 year window to win a SB.

I expect to see that the results with Beathard, Hoyer, Lance, and Mullens is the result of Shannahan. Garappolo and Purdy were just better QBs. Darnold will prove that to be true as he struggle with Shannahan like many other QBs.

A 35 stack defense with Chinn, Shaq, and Luvu on the inside is what I hope they do. Drop Chinn out to S for a traditional 34 with 3+ WR formations.

The coaching staff change was a correct championship move, but the roster building strategy for a team without any foundation/culture (if trading up for the #1 pick and taking a QB) has never proven to be successful in the NFL over 6 decades. Glad they have a couple 28+ proven receiving options to pair with any QB they choose. Going to need a top 10 defense for a few seasons at the least to cover for a young QB to even have a shot at the playoffs. Someone always has to be first though for the fans who hang their hat on hope. Said the same thing for Gettleman, Rhule, and now Fitt. I like Reich, but with the roster building if it goes the way most people are cheering for, odds are a #1 pick QB will be the end for Reich and a second coaching staff will have to take the developed QB (if good) the rest of the way.

That's typical of QBs who go on to win the SB for the first time. He won a playoff game and he is 14th of all active QB in playoff pass attempts in the playoffs. Flacco, Foles, and Dalton are on that list and they no longer start with 2 of them winning SBs. So, 10 QBs with more playoff experience, and you are expecting what QB to start of the Panthers? The QBs you think are good must be QBs who have gone on to win SBs? Well, those QBs don't win for other teams unless they are 40 year old GOAT QBs. I will not be surprised if Lamar is the Panthers target after they leverage the draft and offset the expensive cost to acquire Lamar.

I'm good with Thielen as a 32 year old receiver. Same as I would with Travis Kelce, Julian Edelman, Danny Amendola, and Anquan Boldin in their early 30s (4 of the 6 leading playoff receivers since 2012). I do not expect him to be the physical workhorse receiver that will be the primary target. That receiver I would want to be 26 to 28 with a few years of proven potential under their belt. The prime age for any QB or receiver to be an NFL champion is 29 years or older. 2022 Chiefs top 4 targets were 28 years or older (2 over 30;#1 33). Over the past 10 NFL Champions, there have been 40 players with 50 or more targets on the season. 9 have been 30 years or older, 22 have been 28 years or older. 7 of the 10 teams #1 targeted WR/TE have been 28 or older (4 of the 7 have been 30 years or older). 2 of the other 3 were 27. This has held up over history too with the Packers of the 60s, the Steelers of the 70s, the 49ers/Washington of the 80s with the passing offense emerging as a championship formula, the Cowboys/Broncos of the 90s, and the Patriots of the 2000s, It's rare to find a championship team with QB and receivers 25 and under. Those teams lose more often and are 1 and done in the playoffs. You can even go back to the aerial show in the 1992 playoffs with Frank Reich 31 and Warren Moon 36 at QB in the playoffs and see that Andre Reed 28, James Lofton 36, Don Beebe 28 Pete Metzelaars 32, Haywood Jeffries 28, Webster Slaughter 28, Curtis Duncan 27, and Ernest Givins 28 were the receivers. I want receivers in the age range of 28 to 34 with proven success. I want a QB 29 to 32 who has been to playoffs a few times (winning is not needed). For a championship team, the only positions I want to start young and hold onto them as long as they produce are RB, OL, EDGE, and LB. The other positions are only good young if you have an established team or vet championship players to carry them.

I like Flowers and think he will have a good NFL career, but I have 6 receivers ahead of him that I would rather have. Flowers is a little smaller, but I see him going the same road as Percy Harvin. I expect the same reaction to my WRs as I got when Agholor was the talk of being the Panthers WR and I had Stefon Diggs ranked ahead of him. I do believe Flowers will go in the draft as Harvin (22) and Agholor (20) did. I do have WRs that I project to go in the 3rd to 5th round ahead of Flowers. (I had Steve Smith (3rd), Stefon Diggs (2nd), and Cooper Kupp (2nd) ranked in my top 3 receivers for those drafts. All ahead of popular 1st round favorites). This year is a deep WR draft with not a lot of 1st round WR talent. I expect teams to reach for WRs that should not go in the the 1st or 2nd round.

XYZ is not a role. It is a physical location on the field necessary for the rules of the game - Split End, Tight End, Slot, and Flanker. These locations differ in your "role characteristics" based on the type of offense and offensive coaches system. Gronk played slot. Y is a TE, but the Y differs in systems and sets while always referring to the location of the receiver. Gronk would also line up as the X. Jimmy Graham too. Then you have small receivers that play the Z and move to the Y is some sets. They are still the 1 and will run a 1 route from the Y. Thielen and Randy Moss would run a 2 from the X or Z. I'm not the one who came up with 1 up is 1, 2 up is 2, or 2 up is 1 to refer to WR coaching. Anyone who thinks Flanker, Split End, Tight End, and Slot are static roles that have defined characteristics wouldn't be very good at breaking down the receivers in a Run and Shoot, WCO, Air, Spread, Pistol, Power, and Pro. The XYZ (Split, Tight/Slot, and Flanker) are not the same across all these systems. Roles would be possession, deep threat, route runner, big/shift slot. Open a book by an actual championship coach and see what they wrote. Stop watching your YT videos of people who don't even play or coach and just want your views. Tell the SB offensive coaching minds they are wrong in their philosophy of a 1, 2, and 3 receiver. Tell them they have been talking in fantasy terms for decades. Bill Walsh disagreed with you and your sources.

I know about Cousins. I'm not saying he is not better than the others. I am saying Thielen has performed at a high level with all QBs, and Cousins is not the reason Thielen has been able to produce. If anything, Thielen has been the reason the Vikings passing game has been one of the most productive since 2016. The one down year for the passing game was 2019 with Thielen out for almost half the season. Cousins was the QB that year.

xyz are locations of receivers and not types of receiver. 123 are types of receivers and will follow with the 1 getting more targets than 2 and 2 getting more targets than 3. Bill Walsh's 1 was a receiver over 6' with great hands and the ability to compete for balls and run precise routes. Frank Reich's 1 is a 6-4 225+ WR with decent speed that has good hands and will body up defenders to physically wear them down. Reid's 1 is extremely fast with good hands and great quickness out of their breaks to get separation with little contact. Every coach has a different type and will make them their 1 to receive the most targets. Their 1s can typically play the X and Z locations with the possibility of the Y location (usually a TE or SE position). 1s will work the sidelines to extend the secondary, and they can be moved to a 2 inside with a route designed to cross to the sideline which makes them the 1. Have you ever heard '2 up is 1'? Receivers/Coaching 101. Read Bill Walsh's book which is considered the Bible of football for NFL coaches.

Not disappointed. You just failed to look at Thielen's overall value which goes beyond Cousins and Jefferson. Hate to wake you up, but Bridgewater, Bradford, Keenum, and Cousins have been throwing to Thielen. He has been productive with all of them and Cousins is superior to none of them when you look at Thielen with his 70% catch. Thielen as a #2 is more important to the success of Jefferson and Cousins than Jefferson and Cousins are to Thielen. The data is clear on this. If I thought DJ Chark was Justin Jefferson, I'd say the #1 spot would be filled. I did not. Chark is not going to be a #1 in Reich's system. Thielen as a #2 will make it easier on the #1 WR, the TE, and the QB.

Lamar Jackson, some Colts players and a pool of 2nd/3rd round picks are the target (~10 total draft picks for 2023). Just need 2 1st round picks to get Jackson. Texans will easily give up 1 for Bryce Young. Colts will easily give up 1 for for CJ Stroud. Lions may trade up to 4 to jump the Seahawks for Anthony Richardson to give the Panthers another 1st round pick. There would be other picks that come with the compensation packages to convince the Panthers to give up these QBs to the Texans, Colts, and Seahawks. After giving the Texans and Colts what they want, the Panthers have 2 2024 1st round picks and the #6 pick this year. That is more than enough to get Lamar Jackson. So, the Panthers are choosing from 3 QBs here. Young, Stroud, and Jackson. If the Panthers can deal Richardson to the Seahawks and Levis to the Raiders, that is a bonus. After the draft, all the Panthers need as capital to get Lamar Jackson is two of the highest value 1st round picks from the 2024/2025 season from the Texans, Colts, Raiders, and Panthers. Compensation for Young and Stroud will likely be their 1st round pick this year, 2024 1st round pick, and 2 second round picks. For Richardson and Levis, I would say 1st round picks this year and next, 3rd round pick, and 5th round pick. I think Reich would want to try to get a player or two from the Colts in a trade. At the least, Panthers end up with Lamar Jackson, Colts player(s), #4 pick, 3 2nd round picks, a 2024 1st round pick, and a 2024 2nd round pick (If the Texans and Colts want Young and Stroud). If the Lions and Raiders want Richardson and Levis, the Panthers could add to those 2nd and 3rd round picks this year and 1st round picks next year. That is the value of the QB driver seat in 2023 with overrated QBs - especially when you have coaches connected to the Colts and Lions. Panthers focus on the maneuvering of draft picks to eliminate the draft capital expense for acquiring Lamar Jackson. If they can't get the Texans and Colts to pay the picks to get Lamar Jackson while at least breaking even on what they gave up to move up into the driver seat, then they have their fall back with Stroud or Young if they do waste all that draft capital on an unproven rookie QB. Lamar Jackson is still an option. Fitt called him a great but expensive option, and they want to focus on draft picks now. A Lamar Jackson offer sheet would happen after the draft if the Panthers get everything they want while dictating who gets each of the 4 QBs. Tepper loves leverage and deals, and he will continue to take the Carolina fan base on this wild ride. Dealing Young and Stroud to the Texans and Colts is a very good possibility if the Panthers get their asking price.