CPantherKing

You are looking at a 50% split whether you choose a 1st rounder a QB chosen outside the 1st round and undrafted QBs. First rounders will always get more opportunities. Non-first rounders will always play with more of an edge and nothing to lose. Most QBs will be decent game managers. Most project QBs will fail. What you won't get is QBs who have proven they can produce GWD. They also will not be able to produce better against an NFL playoff caliber defense than they did against college defenses. Easy ceiling to measure coming out of college and it will transfer to the NFL every time. There are a list of these QBs and several of them are not starting in the NFL or not on an NFL roster atm. Meanwhile, the scouts fall in love with these big school QBs who have gone untested with the coaches, defenses, OLs, and 5 star skill position recruits that surround them leading to blow out wins and few opportunities to prove they have the foundation to be an NFL QB. Heinicke was that QB with the Panthers. He was buried under Cam, Allen, and Grier. If you looked at Heinicke's college success in GWD, you would have seen he was better than Allen and Grier. He never got his chance with the Panthers. He should have been given 5 to 6 starts before he was tossed. If he couldn't produce GWD, then move to the next. Kyle Allen could not produce GWD. His wins were anchored by the defense and running game. It's not difficult to find the QBs that will be successful. The difficult part is developing an organization that stops shopping for show ponies, focuses on clutch production and turnovers in college, values footwork in the pocket over everything else, and most importantly demonstrates patience and decisiveness in allowing these QBs their opportunities without falling in love with them and giving them 32 games to show a glimpse of success on the field (Lawrence and Fields).

This is what happens when you can only get in contact with your wife through her lawyer. He apologized one too many times for something. She's of the belief DJ won't change his spots and is done buying his act. DJ keeps telling her that it is working and she just can't see it yet as well as reminding her she is OOU. It didn't work for Rhule and it won't work for DJ. When a woman has gone this far in a relationship to not hear you, to not believe you, and to not be around you, then she has tried everything she could imagine to make it work and has checked out. It's over DJ... you just have not realized it yet.

But unlike Allen, Levis chokes in the clutch on the college level. Show horse and nothing more here. He may be better than Baker Mayfield and Sam Darnold, but he isn't going to win a team a championship. He will flirt with the playoffs and that is about it for him as an NFL QB. Whatever a QB does in the clutch coming out of college will be more than he can accomplish in the clutch during an NFL game. QBs don't improve on this against NFL defenses. Even Tom Brady and Joe Montana did not improve on their level of clutch going from beating a college defense to beating an NFL defense. You have a better shot of reworking a college QBs footwork and passing motion close to perfection in 2 to 3 years than you do redeveloping their decision making, habits, and instincts in game winning situations by their 5th season in the NFL.

There was a group of us who were never fooled by Rhule on day 1. We kept outlinging the problems. We got blasted. Teddy outlined the problems after year 1 and he got blasted. In comes Fitterer and Morgan who help find Darnold as a value and it is pointed out again. We got blasted. Gettleman fooled the same group that Rhule fooled. Fitterer is going to fool you all for another season or two. I will say this again. This organization was built to win in 2002 and again in 2011. The wheels started falling off after the 2013 season. The organization was strong and the NFL reaps the benefits from all of that to this day; just not with the Panthers anymore. When the core that was put in place pre-Gettleman faded from this organization, everything that was done wrong was there for everyone to see. There was a small sliver of hope when Hurney stepped back in, but change to Tepper and Rhule killed that quickly. Hurney is not a dyanasty GM/VP, but he will get a team to the SB once every decade. He will make mistakes, but he is one of the top GMs when it comes to bringing talent to the NFL. He found Delhomme and Heinicke. If Tepper were truly patient, he would have Heinicke at QB after Kyle Allen and Cam Newton had their runs. A QB like Jimmy G was available and some told you about him while you laughed at us. A QB like Jimmy G or Heinicke pair well with CMC. The combo opens up everyone on the field and gives you a great chance of winning close games in the 4th quarter. You were told about McDermott leaving and Beane not being allowed to be GM. You were told about Moore being no better than a good #2 WR. This team would likely have Stefon Diggs #1, DJ Moore #2, CMC, Heinicke and Jimmy G at QB, and Dawson Knox at TE. If everyone who got fooled in the organization didn't miss what was under their nose. This small group of us will let you know when you are no longer being fooled. You can keep laughing until then and be entertained by your fools and jesters you view as heroes.

Chinn is not a good FS. Out of position.

Murray went right at Brown and cut off Brown jumping outside. Said TY for the huge hole Brown and getting in the way of your LB. Brown is ALL Pro though. I know I know

Foreman is done

DJ Moore with his typical 4 TD season. Maybe he will finally get a career high 5 TD this season.

DJ Moore as a vet WR does not realize a scramble drill means come back to the QB? Instead, DJ goes off book and decides to go deep since he could not get the separation on the out route with his QB scrambling to the sideline. A QB forces that ball deep to DJ while scrambling to the sideline under pressure and it is likely an INT. DJ should be shaking his head at himself.

Don't trust in DJ. This has been a repeated mistake for 5 seasons.

If CJ Stroud is the top QB in this draft, then it will be another dark year for QB prospects.

Stroud's value just crashed with that decision. Significant mental error. 2nd or 3rd round pick imo.

They have a shorter shelf life in the NFL and a 65% + passer is a must to win a championship

This is the moment for Stroud. He has had 4 GWD in his college career and has converted on 2 of them. If he can show calm, control his team, run the clock, set up the win, and score the TD without any mental mistakes, he is worth a mid to late 1st round pick. Likely will go in the top 10 if he follows up a win in this game with another couple wins to finish out his college career.

Mac Jones is another wasted 1st round pick. Game manager. Choke artist. He is the worst clutch QB in the NFL. Sam Darnold gives you a better chance at winning at the end of the game. Why do so many people think these choke artists like Mac Jones, Justin Fields, Sam Darnold, Baker Mayfield, and Teddy Bridgewater can magically become a clutch QB? College FB is producing a lot of good game managers, but these big college programs are not developing clutch QBs anymore.

I like McDermott, but he needs to get better at positioning his team have the ball with a little more than a minute on the clock. He goes with the Rivera school where they want to control the ball going in to the 2 minute warning. QBs performed as expected. Goff had every advantage to win this game, but he continues to struggle in the clutch.

Andy Reid would not be looking for a QB like Newton. He values footwork, accuracy, and quick throws in the pocket. Those were Newton's flaws and led to several inaccurate short passes and overthrown 5 to 10 yard sideline passes. I agree with you on the coach. Heinicke is being coached by Rivera now and he is performing at a higher level than Fields. I believe Andy Reid would get more out of Heinicke, but Heinicke is still going to produce under Rivera. The Panthers only gave him 1 start. Heinicke had a 42.3% GWD coming out of college. The highest of all QBs the Panthers had post Cam Newton's injury (Grier, Allen, Teddy, Darnold, Mayfield, Corral, and Walker). Now, he seems like a surprise QB when this was already known. He should have been given 5 to 10 starts with the Panthers when the others failed - not 1 start. Hurney and Rivera brought Heinicke with them and now he is winning games with a strong 33.3% GWD - placing him in the top 10 QBs among SB winning QBs. Heinicke will be a starter in the NFL with playoff success for some time. Heinicke can go toe to toe with the likes of Josh Allen, Justin Herbert, and Aaron Rodgers. Teddy may be better than Darnold and Mayfield, but everything that mattered pointed to the Panthers keeping Heinicke and Newton until Heinicke replaced Newton or the Panthers found a more productive NFL QB. That would have required patience as Cam Newton pre-injury and Heinicke not only gave the Panthers a better chance at winning games, they were among the top 25 active QBs in the NFL back in 2018. Cam Newton needed to be replaced after the injury, but he should have never been replaced with a healthy QB that has proven they are not as capable of winning an NFL game in the 4th quarter or playoffs. You'll be surprised how accurate this method of QB evaluation is and how it translates from college to the NFL much better than traditional scouting and the issues with good college QBs with big programs who are unprepared and never translate to the NFL - even as a Heisman winner or national champion.

Carr is an Aaron Rodgers type QB. I would expect him to win a SB every 10 years or so with a good defense and supporting crew around them. Carr and Rodgers have hero moments that stand out and are good when it comes to winning a game, but they do take a few too many risks and come up short more than the elite QB. They could easily be considered a QB that can carry a bad team and may even look like an MVP with a couple elite players around them. A Mahomes, Brady, or Garappolo type QB will out play a Carr or a Rodgers in the 4th quarter. I like Carr. You can win with Carr, but you better have a defense that can create turnovers and a special teams that can change field position more often than not. In Carr's first 32 starts he had a 21.4 GWD%. He has raised that to a 29.4 GWD%. Good QBs on bad teams will have a 30% GWD. In Carr's best season he had a 70.0 GWD%, and last season he had a 46.2% GWD. Both those Raiders teams gave Carr 10+ GWD opportunities. They were bad teams that would have never seen the playoffs with a QB like Fields. Rodgers had a 50.0%GWD in his best season. If Carr had the level of coaching and talent around him that Rodgers has had in his career, Carr would be considered an MVP candidate. Last I checked Carr was ranked 15th in GWD% and capable of directing a championship contending team. He is in his 9th season, and I would expect his career to last for 15 to 18 seasons with his style of play.

This is very straight forward. There are LIMITED opportunities to produce GWD for every QB. A rookie contract is 5 years. On a bad team they will have on average 10 opportunities in a season. On a good team they will have 5 opportunities. QBs who do not produce 30% GWD rarely win in the playoffs and even more rarely win a SB championship. Fields has 2 GWD in 18 opportunities. It is easier for a .100 hitter in the MLB to become a .300 hitter than it is for a QB to go from .100 to .300 in 5 NFL seasons. It may even be easier for a .100 hitter to get to .400 in MLB, and that is not easy to do. A QB like Fields has a career of 9 seasons at the most. So, if he does make it to the playoffs consistently at some point in his career, he will have 65 opportunities. That leaves him with 47 more opportunities and he would need to have 18 more GWD to pull even with 30%. He will need to be a .400 hitter from here on out to prove he is capable of winning a SB. He is currently a low .100 hitter. Place your bets. The clock is ticking. Here is the other part of it. College QBs do not improve their college GWD in the NFL. If they couldn't do it in the NFL, then your hope is they are at best a great game manager that you need to plan on having a great defense to win a championship for your team. Justin Fields was tested in 2 games in college. He lost both of them. 0 GWD and 2 Ls. He has yet to prove he is any better than Sam Darnold. Fields, Mayfield and Darnold are prime examples of what a big school program can do with their defense, OL, and skill position players to pump up the stock of a game managing QB. This translates very poorly to the NFL. Cam Newton rattled off 6 GWD in one season at Auburn. He was 1.000 at Auburn. If you include his Blinn college year, he was a .900 GWD QB in college. That of course came down in the NFL. Cam is a prime example of a QB who comes up short, and it showed in the SB. Most QBs who win the SB win it in their first 2 to 3 seasons as a starting QB. Then they have the potential to establish a dynasty. Stafford (y13 SB [injury plagued first 2 seasons], 28.0% GWD by S32), Mahomes (y2 SB; 36.4% GWD by S2), Brady (y1 SB; 35.3% GWD by S32), Foles (y6 SB; 31.6% GWD by S32), Wilson (y2 SB; 50.0% GWD by S32), P Manning (y9 SB; 33.3% GWD by S32), E Manning (y4 SB; 26.3% GWD by S32), Flacco (y2 SB; 20% GWD by S32), Rodgers (y3 SB; 21.1 % GWD by S32), Brees (y8 SB; 31.6% GWD by S32), Roethlisberger (y2 SB; 43.8% GWD by S32) You can do your best to find NFL champion QBs who can't produce GWD in their first 32 starts. Keep hope alive for Fields, but he really is that bad in the clutch. He is currently sitting at 11.1% GWD in 21 starts. 11 more starts to go, and he will need 4 more GWD and no more than 2 losses in the next 11 games to hit 30% GWD. Teams will learn the hard way, but Garappolo>Lance and Foles>Fields if they want their team to win.

Of the active QBs in the NFL with at least 1 game winning drive: Sam Darnold is 50th Baker Mayfield is 41st Teddy Bridgewater is 39th So, none of them should be starting in the NFL. They have had plenty of opportunities. They did not produce in college and they will not produce in the NFL. Taylor Heinicke is 11th. That will turn out to be a big miss. This leaves a team with 2 options. Option 1) Give a new QB a run. The outcome will be a win by the team, and game winning drive led by the QB, a tie, or a loss. All a team needs to do is let that QB keep playing until they have come up with 5 losses. If they do not have 2 GWD to go with those 5 losses, you move on to another QB. There will be 5 to 10 opportunities for GWD every season for a single team. This will not improve if they haven't had success in college and they struggle to start their NFL career. Option 2) Acquire a proven QB in the NFL. There are only 20 proven QBs in the NFL. Of the 20, there are 4 QBs who started the season as back-up QBs. 2 of the 4 are now starters in Garappolo and Heinicke. The other 2 are Cooper Rush and Nick Foles. 6 of the top 20 have won the SB. Only 1 QB outside of the top 20 have won the SB.

Neither QB is good at winning a close game in the final minutes. The mental pressure causes them to consistently make mental errors. They are far from clutch. Fields is one of the worst clutch QBs in the NFL.

Wilks will not be HC. He was brought here to bring over Leftwich as HC when Rhule and Snow failed. Wilks will be DC under Leftwich. There is also an up and coming potential GM who is connected to Leftwich and the Steelers. The Leftwich - Steelers - Tepper ties are strong.

This should have been expected when CMC went to improve the 49ers to a SB contender. The Rams went after CMC too because they knew he would be the difference. The Panthers felt he was expendable. That tells you all you need to know about the front office. The Panthers effectively chose to get a handful of mid to late round draft picks to improve a conference team for the foreseeable future. The front office raised the level of difficulty for the Panthers next rebuild. It's not like winning in the NFL is not hard enough. Let's make it even harder!

Well when you have a GWD QB who can use CMC effectively in Jimmy G, then you will win many close games if you don't blow teams out. Who could of had Jimmy G and CMC working together in the offseason? That would be the Panthers.

Checked out now? DJ is producing at the same level he has his entire career. He is a #2 WR and the Panthers want to believe he is a #1.