MasterAwesome

I understand entertaining this hypothetical as a fan, but I think it'd be incredibly irresponsible for an actual NFL FO to forego their top choice at QB this year and trade down because "hey that Houston pick is probably going to be top 2 next year". The NFL is too much of a crapshoot. Going into the 2022 season, I think most people considered teams like the Lions, Seahawks, Jets, Giants, Commanders, and Jaguars to be bottom-feeders...but they all were either playoff teams or in the playoff run late in the season. On the other hand, teams like the Bucs, Rams, Packers, and Broncos were considered potential powerhouses going into the season and they all struggled significantly.

True, forgot about that loophole!! Checkmate, atheists.

If you're modeling the relationship between two variables (i.e. weight and injury risk, in this case), then it doesn't really matter if you're encountering a new data point that is the lowest on record (i.e. Bryce Young's size). Your model doesn't suddenly crash and burn and become invalidated. In the simplest terms, I'm sure once upon a time you've heard of the formula Y = mx + b. Y is your dependent variable (injury risk), m is your slope (basically how impactful weight is for injury risk), x is your independent variable (weight), and b is a constant. So if there is truly a statistically significant correlation between weight and injury risk, then even if Bryce Young was 40 pounds, you can still plug that into your model and determine the injury risk. It's very basic statistical analysis/linear regression. Also even if there was never a sub-200 pound QB in the history of the league, you can still determine if there's a correlation between size and injury risk. Do 200 pound QBs get more injured than 220 pound QBs, who get more injured than 240 pound QBs?

I've noticed the "Bryce Young fans are intolerant" camp has been awfully quiet while their boy is in here going an absolute unhinged tirade.

I don't even know about "smart" agents, it's just common sense IMO. Like I mentioned earlier, what prospect would go into the Combine having never attempted a 40-yard dash? So what's different about this test where these prospects are apparently going into this S2 never having taken it before, knowing full well it's part of the evaluation? Maybe S2 has never really been on these kids' radar for the most part, but it sure as hell is now.

Yeah it's more just me trying to understand why people use that argument to diminish Young. "Oh of course he scored well, he's been taking it every year since High School!". Either it's really hard to improve your score, thus him taking it multiple times has a negligible impact...or taking the test repeatedly does have an impact on your score, thus all the other QBs are foolish for not putting in the effort to practice taking this exam leading up to the draft.

There has been a lot of chatter about Bryce Young having taken this test every year since HS or w/e, but I'd have to imagine every one of these aspiring NFL QBs has taken this test multiple times before the official registered one, no? Why would you want your first time taking the test to be the official one that gets released to NFL teams? That'd be nuts. It would be akin to knowing you're running the 40 at the Combine and being like "whatever let's just see what happens, I don't need to try it beforehand". Is this exam something that's not accessible to most of these QBs? Like Bryce had some special "in" to be able to take it all these years ahead of time?

Literally the first sentence of the first post of this thread…

Yeah that makes sense. To your point about a league-wide baseline: I wonder how much disparity there truly is at the end of the day between the 32 teams when it comes to their ideal prototype at positions like LB & DB. Because I always find myself nodding along when our FO is speaking about what traits they look for in a player (length & athleticism in this case for LBs, edge rushers, DBs) - it resonates with us because it makes a lot of sense, right? Well, making a lot of sense is what also makes me think every other team in the league is basically going to be prioritizing the exact same attributes lol. Just like long arms is a league wide baseline for OTs, I imagine long arms and athleticism are very much sought-after for DBs and pass rushers as well. You can say maybe some FOs will value intelligence over athleticism, but I remember an earlier presser this offseason where we were all excited about our FO saying they were looking for "smart" players. So if you extract everything our coaching staff has said that they value, then it appears we're essentially looking for uber athletic, very smart, skilled players sounds good, sign me up! Appreciate all the work you put in on this content. Helps me learn about new prospects, as someone who doesn't watch college football.

Is this really any different than our approach the last few years under Rhule? He constantly went after extremely athletic high RAS players, and we know how he felt about short arms...

Every single excerpt you quoted mentions the concerns about his frame specifically with respect to taking hits lol not non-contact injuries. I’m guessing if a smaller player suffers a concussion in-game, you would attribute that to his frame too.

How are short jokes just light-hearted trolling, but calling Stroud fans "size whores" is being malicious and insufferable? You can't have it both ways...you're letting your biases cloud your judgment.

The difference between Bryce guys and CJ guys, is it seems like Bryce guys are hardcore all in on their guy...whereas the majority of posts from the CJ camp are more anti-Bryce than they are pro-CJ. I rarely see arguments for why we should pick CJ, but rather arguments for why we should not pick Bryce. May seem like a subtle difference, but one camp seems to believe in their guy much more than the other camp believes in their guy. I was leaning more heavily towards CJ over the last couple months as someone who doesn't watch a lick of college football (he just seems to check a lot of boxes), but when his own fans barely have anything nice to say about him other than "Bryce Young small", then it gives me a lot more pause lol.

Whatever happened to that report (not sure if substantiated) that Fitterer wasn't going to ask Reich who he wants at QB until 1-2 weeks before the draft or w/e. Either that was BS, or all these "Panthers all love _____ and are definitely taking him" reports are BS.

Yeah I get that, it's very possible the Panthers have a clear favorite. But the guy I quoted is basically saying Stroud is superior to Young in every single way possible. If that were true, you'd think public perception would even remotely reflect that, not only among media (who I know are flawed in their evaluations and often just piggyback off of what's trendy), but from actual scouts who evaluate prospects for a living. Instead, it seems like Young and Stroud are very much neck and neck by all accounts. I know I know, poor choice of expression...Bryce Young is tiny yadda yadda lol. The consensus seems to be that Stroud has his strengths and weaknesses, and Young has his strengths and weaknesses, hence why there's a genuine debate about which is objectively the better prospect. It'd be like if the narrative leading up to the 2021 draft was like "Who the heck are the Jaguars going to take?! Trevor Lawrence or Justin Fields??" when everyone knew they were taking Lawrence aside from a hot take here or there. If there's a QB prospect who is superior in virtually every way, then manufacturing an air of mystery surrounding which QB will be taken #1 overall would just come across as silly and cringe.

So Stroud is the better QB, better fit, bigger, taller, stronger, better arm, etc. - how is there even a debate for the first overall pick? Something doesn’t really add up.

Not only were they two different organizations, they were our very first two drafts in franchise history...almost 30 years ago. That would be quite a silly thing to be worried about with respect to the present day Panthers.

There's clearly a very pro-Young contingent and a very pro-Stroud contingent, so I don't understand why apparently only Young fanboys exist and not Stroud fanboys? You are both fanboys, just of different guys...

You seem to be wanting to downplay how good Burrow is, in order to make the Stroud comparison seem less absurd. Burrow is almost certainly by most accounts the 2nd best QB in the entire league after Mahomes. He's coming off of two consecutive dominant seasons statistically, while also carrying his team to a back-to-back Super Bowl and AFCCG. After three seasons has he not already solidified his place as a first ballot HOFer? Sure...I guess......what a bust lol. There's no scenario where comparing Young to Mahomes is absurd, but Stroud to Burrow is perfectly reasonable. Absurd vs. slightly less absurd? Sure maybe I'll give you that. And for the record I'm one of those in the "happy with either guy" camp but probably leaning slightly towards Stroud. Also who is actually saying Bryce is flat out a Mahomes clone? I usually only see it in the context of comparing very specifically their playmaking/improvisational abilities.

It's funny how apparently you're not allowed to compare any quality of Bryce Young to Mahomes or Brees, but CJ Stroud is totally the next Joe Burrow lol.

Even your modified breakdown of “bust” vs. “non-bust” I don’t think is particularly helpful. How many people here will be satisfied if we simply draft a “non-bust” at #1 overall after trading significant assets to move up? Would it be considered a success if we draft a Daniel Jones level QB with the #1 overall pick?

Remember how she was part of the coaching interviews and we soon after end up with an all-star coaching staff? LET HER COOK!* *(that’s an expression, not misogyny)

The CRA logic: because these not-even-crazy things happened, that means literally anything is a possibility. We gave a mediocre Ian Thomas a decent sized extension, therefore what if we cut Brian Burns and sign Nicole Tepper to play DE? IT'S POSSIBLE. Oh you think we won't draft a long-snapper with the 1st overall pick?? Well I present to you Exhibit A: we took a CB in the top 10 of the draft.....A CORNERBACK. Anything is possible. (Just remember that this time last year, he swore we were drafting Kenny Pickett at #8).

This may have been the most unintentionally hilarious defense of someone I've ever seen bless your heart, good sir.

Normally I roll my eyes at the whole "obsessing over who is following who on Instagram" thing...but in this case, if Adam Thielen truly did just start following Bryce Young on Instagram, I think that's kinda eye-opening. No doubt Thielen asked the Panthers' FO who they were leaning towards drafting at #1 (I think he even admitted as much)...of course he'd want to know who he's catching passes from, after all. They may not have given him a definitive answer one way or another, but it's plausible they hinted one way or another. That being said, I doubt the Panthers are locked in on any QB at this point. Surely they have their leanings, but there is plenty of time for things to change before the draft.