top dawg

Let's not taint our evening thinking about the FitteRhule Era.

Keeping him wasn't worth the divided locker room that it would've created according to every NFL player turned analyst that I've heard speak about it (which was probably 5+). They intimately understand the dynamics of the locker room, so I respect what they say. Dissention in the locker room is a team killer (e.g. 2023 Eagles). The fact is that all the first and second round talk was essentially media-driven. It was never in the cards. If Fields was worth that, they wouldn't have put him on the trade block. The best thing they could've done is be realistic and move on towards the future (similarly to what we did with Burns). Fields was never their guy kand he didn't do enough to be anyone's guy at the moment. He's a throwaway at worst, or talented project that may become a viable starter at some point future at best.

Well if that don't beat all... Mind you, I don't hate Gallup, but Mingo has untapped potential. He only has one season under his belt, in an awful situation I might add. It kind of perplexes me why seemingly reasonable people don't understand this. Not every rookie receiver will come in tearing the opposition a new one, particularly in a dysfunctional situation.

We already have TEs that are in the same average tier, whether slightly above or below. We have a young TE with upside that has arguably been unexplored or untapped due to horrible coaching the last couple of seasons. We can arguably get a prospect in the draft that has more upside than overpaid free agents. We only have so much money.

Not opposed to it. Gallup just doesn't move the needle for me. Perhaps a change of scenery is what he needs to unlock those extra levels.

What's going on in here? Still arguing over Burns I see. Time to wrap this thread up and move on guys. Burns is a Giant. So far we've got two rotational guys. We're doing the best that we can. If we can sign a guy suited to be a starter, great. If not, we're going to have to fake it 'til we make it. I think that a 3-4 lends itself to more flexibility in terms of rushing the passer, so Evero will be able to fake it even more if necessary. I personally hope that we can get Clowney or Young, but if we don't, I'm not crying over it. All we can do is put in the effort. If a healthy Haynes is signed, we'll have an even better guy to throw in the rotation. Gentlemen, it's time to look to the future.

I don't know why you're saying that. It's still early.

Is it? Where is your evidence? Honestly, the hit rate doesn't look great from the first round. In order to try and get the most up-to-date info, I chose an IDP website. Sure it's fantasy football and he speaks in those terms, but most of the time there is a correlation between production in fantasy football and the NFL. "But how do we definite a hit? I must admit, I scrutinize my hits pretty rigorously. Going back to 2018, there are some obvious hits like Justin Jefferson, Jonathan Taylor, Shaquille Leonard, Devin White, and Brian Burns. While it’s difficult to set a standard across the board—especially when dealing with players drafted in 2022—most of the players I counted as hits either finished a season as a top 30 player at their position or they have shown enough potential early on to inspire optimism. "Conversely, if we’re defining a hit, we also have to define a miss. Calling someone a “miss” at this point doesn’t mean their careers are over. It just means they’re either trending down or aren’t trustworthy in our lineups (or on our rosters) right now. We already mentioned Harry, but think about Johnathan Abram, Jalen Reagor, Jerry Jeudy, Isaiah Simmons, and Tua Tagovailoa. We haven’t lost all hope for these players, but we’re not as excited now as we were when we first took these guys. "This is not an exact science. I might call someone a hit now which we later see as a miss and vice versa. But I think this is a helpful exercise as we approach draft season, one that I’ve always wanted to do. So that’s what we’re going to do! Below, I’ll go through the history of our main league’s rookie draft dating back to 2018. We’ll see how many players were selected, in which rounds, and how many were hits." Now, I will admit that this dude's definition of "hit" is tough (top 30 at their position), but you get an idea. Being that we're talking basically about pass rushers, here are those numbers: Defensive End 10/29, hit rate of 34% 3/10 were 1st-round picks Just 10 good defensive ends drafted in the last 5 years—that’s crazy! Yes, the hit percentage is high but that’s in part because so few DEs were selected. One reason for the low total is that RSO (our league provider) labels a lot of edge rushers as LBs coming out of college. But it also shows that we’re not as willing to take swings on guys like Drake Jackson and George Karlaftis. This position is hard to play and it takes time for young guys to develop, so I’m sure if we revisited this article in 5 years, the hit rate would be different. But early on, good luck finding the next Maxx Crosby. Linebacker 14/44, hit rate of 31.8% 0/14 were 1st-round picks 4/14 were 3rd-round picks We all love linebackers and we all love the rookie draft. But is it safe to mix those two loves? Well, at least not in the first round. If I’m going to grab an LB in the rookie draft, I’m going to wait. We’ve seen guys like Leonard and White get snatched up in the middle rounds and return massive value. The same can’t be said for guys like Devin Bush. But at least if you take a later swing, it doesn’t hurt you as much if it doesn’t work out. And while the hit rate is similar to WR, the LB landscape changes so much year to year that I’m tempted to source my LBs off waivers instead. And, here are his general numbers. 1st Round: 34/60, hit rate of 56% 2nd Round: 20/60, hit rate of 33.3% 3rd Round: 12/60, hit rate of 20% 4th Round: 17/60, hit rate of 28.3% 5th Round: 9/60, hit rate of 15% https://www.theidpshow.com/p/examining-the-rookie-hit-rate-2018 So, I'd say that if you know what you're doing (and maybe lucky), then it's quite possible to get an EDGE worth a damn at 33 (and 39, really) as compared to getting one in the first. Sure, it's easier in the first, but it's fairly easy to screw it up also.

He'll be the big 3-0 soon enough. Perhaps he'll play his whole career as a Panther. Shaq is not perfect, but one thing that you must admit: he has that dawg in him.

That, and the fact that we don't have the cap to do more. If you want to be here, you have to wait until next year when the cap is in better shape and/or prove it on the field. It's a great strategy for a team that is in the process of rebuilding. I'm going to be honest, I didn't think that we would even be this far, even on paper, in regards to even looking like a competitive team in 2024. We'll see how the draft goes. But so far, what Morgan is doing has been somewhat impressive. Of course the the rubber hits the road once the season starts, but anyone who is realistic ain't expecting 180 degrees in the other direction. It's all about incremental steps. One of these steps is dealing with the elephant in the room. Bryce was going to get another shot, and, even though I hate to admit it, he deserves another shot. It's just fair and makes the most sense from a fiscal and organizational perspective, and I can't blame Morgan or Canales for giving him one. Morgan also inherited Bryce. The issue came with the job. If Bryce doesn't work out or at least show viable signs of life, there will be a plan in place to move on sooner rather than later.

In fairness, y'all are driving me crazy. Some were skeptical of retaining Morgan and giving him a promotion. That was a rational approach, though one that always has the possibility of throwing the baby out with the bathwater. Some just want to criticize Morgan for trading Burns for a second and a 2025 5th, but unless they believe he's an abject idiot, even they should have the sense to know that he has did his research and made the best deal that he could. He inherited that problem. At this point, it is beyond obvious that a damned dominant franchise isn't going to be built in a day. When you're at the bottom of the barrel, that should be even more evident. That means it's going to take more time to turn things around. Be patient!

You can get better value by waiting. You may not have a back taken until late round two at the earliest.

Yes, but historically bad planning from the get-go, bad coaching and the fait accompli that was terrible execution.

Nor should we.

I didn't realize that Williams was so old. Dude is pushing 30. I don't think he's coming here. The Bolts are trying to bring him back at a cheaper number, and likely one that's more fitting with his production based upon what he's already done. If he's looking for a championship, we can forget it. If he's looking to make a bigger impact, then maybe. If he's looking for a longer contract, I kinda doubt we'll want to make that investment for someone whose production has slid downward the last three seasons; of course he was hurt last year, but that brings up other questions. I don't know.

Talking about a rabbit hole!

Thielen is not long term, and DJ may not be either. It's very reasonable to draft a WR or two in the second if they are the BPA.

Gallup is not the potential monster down the field that Williams is though. I think we need a tall bigger guy.

You take the BPA. TE is not deep. EDGE is not deep. WR is deep. O-Line is deep. There could be some first round talent at WR drop to the second (and we have two high second round picks). That may not happen for O-line. It's not going to happen for TE. Probably not happening for EDGE either. I doubt it happens for CB too.

I'm not sure that that's true. Here is an interesting chart https://www.windycitygridiron.com/2023/8/16/23835071/are-players-drafted-at-age-21-more-likely-to-be-late-bloomers Honestly, I don't think age really has much to do with their long term viability as a receiver. I really can't find any information about your claim. I did see some things about late bloomers having an advantage in sports in general, but nothing necessarily about the NFL. I certainly wouldn't let that stop me from drafting a player if I thought he was the best available. That being said, Legette is intriguing. He needs some polish according to draft profiles, but he is not without talent. I can't wait to hear what we think about him.

They know that, but it doesn't support their desires.

He ain't the first and won't be the last. Sometimes, particularly under some coaches, players have to wait their turn. It's not uncommon as you should very well know. Just like you can make the most negative spin on it that you can, I can easily say that when he did get the opportunity, he outplayed everyone else, so much so that he put himself in a position to go probably in the second round (with an oustide chance to go in the first). So, there's that. How are you going to fault him for that?

Person just confirmed my thoughts.