Hey there, thought I'd check in with you on this again now that the 2015 comp picks are out. I've written an article to explain some of what I got wrong:
http://overthecap.com/evaluation-of-the-2015-compensatory-draft-picks-projection-part-1/
There are two Panther-specific items of note:
1) As I thought, the Panthers weren't going to get shut out of comp picks, as they got a 5th for Mitchell and a 6th for Munnerlyn as I anticipated in one scenario. But the 6th for Munnerlyn didn't come how I thought it would. Domenik Hixon qualified in favor of Carolina, because apparently players who are cut with an injury settlement (as Hixon was from the Bears after he tore his ACL in OTAs) qualify even they are cut before Week 10. This makes some sense as to not punish teams for someone like Hixon who could have very well had played out the contract if not for injury. On the other bubble players, I was wrong on Joe Webb (who I had the least confidence in anyway) but I was right on Antoine Cason and Ed Dickson.
2) Something weird happened with Seattle that I didn't anticipate, as one of their projected 5ths got demoted to a 6th. The best explanation I can give is that Brandon Browner got devalued for his four-game suspension (doing the math on that makes it fit perfectly in the list). This obviously didn't affect the Panthers for 2015, but it could wreak havoc on the projected 3rd for Greg Hardy in 2016 if he is suspended for a lengthy time. If he gets six games the comp pick could fall to a 4th, and if he gets ten it could fall to a 6th.
