By Harry P McGill ยท July 6, 2026
If there's one thing the NFL never runs short on, it's preseason confidence.
Every fan base believes the holes have been filled, the draft class is destined for Canton, and this is finally the year everything falls into place.
Experience has taught me something different.
The loudest offseason usually doesn't belong to the best football team. It belongs to the team everyone wants to believe in.
Here are five AFC clubs getting more credit than I'm willing to hand out before the games start counting.
Every August we're reminded how dangerous the Bengals can be.
Fair enough.
When Joe Burrow is healthy, Cincinnati can beat anybody.
But every season seems to come with the same conversation. Questions about protecting the quarterback. Questions about consistency. Questions about whether the defense can hold up over a long season.
Talent isn't the issue.
Counting on everything to finally go right is.
I've lost track of how many times the Chargers have been labeled the league's next great contender.
Every year they're supposed to take that final step.
Every year something gets in the way.
Until they prove they can consistently win the games they're expected to win, I'm done handing out benefit of the doubt.
Potential eventually has an expiration date.
Houston has assembled an impressive young roster.
That's exactly why expectations have become so dangerous.
Suddenly people are talking about the Texans like they're already one of the AFC's established powers.
Maybe they'll get there.
There's still a difference between knocking on the door and owning the house.
The AFC doesn't hand out playoff wins because your roster looks good on paper.
Denver has quietly become one of the trendiest sleeper picks in football.
That's usually when I start getting nervous.
The Broncos have improved. Nobody can argue that.
But improving and becoming a legitimate conference contender are two very different things.
Sometimes we fall so in love with a team's direction that we forget to ask where it's actually going.
Never underestimate Mike Tomlin.
Also, never confuse respect for certainty.
The Steelers always seem to find a way to stay competitive, and that's a credit to one of the league's best coaches.
What I don't understand is why so many people assume they'll suddenly become a serious Super Bowl threat every time the roster changes.
Winning nine or ten games is one thing.
Winning the AFC is another conversation entirely.
It reminds me of those old mail order miracle products in the back of Popular Mechanics. The advertisement always looked incredible. The package that showed up at your front door usually told a different story.
None of these teams are bad.
In fact, I'd be surprised if several of them didn't make the playoffs.
That's not what this list is about.
It's about expectations.
Some teams are being discussed like they've already earned a place among the AFC elite.
Football has a way of reminding everyone that reputations don't convert third downs.
The AFC remains the toughest conference in football.
That makes every prediction a little more dangerous.
Cincinnati has to prove it can put together a complete season. The Chargers need to stop living on potential. Houston has to show it can handle being the hunted. Denver still has another step to take. Pittsburgh has to prove steady success can become championship success.
Maybe all five prove me wrong.
I've been covering this league long enough to know surprises happen every year.
I'm just not ready to climb aboard every preseason bandwagon rolling down the highway.