By Harry P McGill ยท July 16, 2026
Harry P. McGill:
Fantasy football has spent years trying to turn quarterback drafting into advanced mathematics.
There are tiers, algorithms, roster-construction theories and enough spreadsheets to make a fellow nostalgic for the days when a Street and Smith magazine and a dull pencil counted as research.
We will keep this simpler.
Every projected NFL starting quarterback gets one label: Hot or Cold.
Hot means the player is worth considering at his current draft cost. Cold means I would rather let somebody else make the investment. The decisions are based on our latest PPR rankings, overall rank, quarterback rank, ADP, current team assignment and available injury or player news.
These are projected starters. A few quarterback rooms remain unsettled, and July depth charts have a habit of aging poorly.
Verdict: Hot
Overall Rank: 22
Position Rank: QB1
ADP: 28
Allen is the first quarterback on our board and is being drafted like one. There is no hidden bargain here. There is simply the best-ranked player at the position carrying a premium price.
That price is acceptable because Allen gives managers the cleanest path to an elite weekly advantage. Drafting a quarterback in the third round is not for everyone, but Allen is one of the few who can justify it.
Verdict: Cold
Overall Rank: 131
Position Rank: QB20
ADP: 155
Willis is ranked 24 spots ahead of his ADP, which usually gets my attention. The trouble is that QB20 still leaves him outside the dependable starter range in ordinary leagues.
There may be useful weeks here. There may also be Sundays when fantasy managers spend three hours reconsidering every decision that led them to this point.
He is a superflex option, not a preferred QB1.
Verdict: Hot
Overall Rank: 55
Position Rank: QB4
ADP: 54
Our ranking and the market are nearly identical here. Maye is fourth among quarterbacks and is coming off the board in the same general neighborhood as his overall rank.
That tells us the discount has largely disappeared. I am still buying.
A top-five ranking at the position gives Maye legitimate difference-making appeal, and his price remains below the Allen and Lamar Jackson tier.
Verdict: Cold
Overall Rank: 239
Position Rank: QB29
ADP: 282
Smith is going later than our ranking, so he is not overpriced. He is simply ranked too low to matter in most one-quarterback leagues.
QB29 is emergency depth. That can be useful in superflex formats, but it is not a reason to build a draft plan around him.
Verdict: Hot
Overall Rank: 40
Position Rank: QB2
ADP: 39
There is almost no disagreement between our board and the market. Jackson is QB2, ranked 40th overall, with an ADP of 39.
That is what a settled price looks like.
You are not stealing him. You are paying full retail for one of the few quarterbacks capable of creating a weekly advantage large enough to change a matchup.
Verdict: Hot
Overall Rank: 49
Position Rank: QB3
ADP: 59
Burrow is one of the cleaner values among the premium quarterbacks. Our board places him 49th overall, while his ADP sits ten picks later.
That is not a canyon, but it is enough of a discount to matter.
If you want a top-three quarterback without paying the Allen price, Burrow makes sense.
Verdict: Cold
Overall Rank: 325
Position Rank: QB34
ADP: 247
The market is drafting Sanders 78 spots earlier than our overall ranking.
That is a warning flare.
His name and possible starting opportunity are carrying more weight than his current fantasy grade. At QB34, he belongs on dynasty rosters and deep superflex benches. Redraft managers should not pay an ADP of 247 for uncertainty.
Verdict: Cold
Overall Rank: 224
Position Rank: QB28
ADP: 213
Rodgers is being drafted close to our ranking, so there is no great market mistake to exploit.
QB28 tells the story. He may provide competent NFL quarterback play, but competent does not win fantasy leagues unless the rest of your roster is doing the heavy lifting.
Verdict: Cold
Overall Rank: 148
Position Rank: QB24
ADP: 167
Stroud is going 19 picks later than our ranking, so the price is reasonable. The positional ranking is the problem.
QB24 leaves him outside the weekly starter class. There is nothing wrong with drafting him as a second quarterback, but the current profile does not demand that managers make him a priority.
Verdict: Hot
Overall Rank: 143
Position Rank: QB22
ADP: 185
Jones is not a particularly comforting fantasy selection. Comfort is overrated when the price is right.
Our board places him 42 spots ahead of his ADP. That makes him one of the better late-round values among the lower-tier starters.
He is not a preferred QB1, but as a second quarterback in superflex or a late bench option, the discount is difficult to ignore.
Verdict: Hot
Overall Rank: 78
Position Rank: QB9
ADP: 97
Lawrence is ranked inside our top 10 quarterbacks and is being selected 19 picks later than his overall ranking.
This is what a useful middle-round target looks like.
You can spend early picks elsewhere, wait for the quarterback rush to settle and still leave with a player our board considers a clear QB1.
Verdict: Cold
Overall Rank: 176
Position Rank: QB26
ADP: 165
The market is taking Ward slightly earlier than our ranking, and our board has him at QB26.
That does not rule out improvement. It does rule out calling him a bargain.
The upside may be appealing, but fantasy managers are already paying for part of it.
Verdict: Hot
Overall Rank: 101
Position Rank: QB14
ADP: 116
Nix sits just outside our starting quarterback tier and is available 15 picks later than his overall ranking.
That makes him a sensible target for managers who wait.
He may not be the player who wins the draft room in August. Those players often become the ones who win leagues in December.
Verdict: Cold
Overall Rank: 82
Position Rank: QB10
ADP: 98
Mahomes is ranked 16 spots ahead of his ADP, which would normally make him a buy.
The injury context changes the calculation.
Our recent player news says Mahomes suffered ACL and LCL tears and was expected to work toward clearance for team drills by training camp. That is substantial recovery news, not a minor offseason inconvenience.
He remains a top-10 quarterback in our rankings, but the health risk is enough for me to prefer similarly priced options without the same concern.
Verdict: Cold
Overall Rank: 332
Position Rank: QB35
ADP: 308
Cousins is a late pick, but he is still being drafted ahead of our ranking.
More importantly, rookie Fernando Mendoza is QB30 on our board and carries an ADP of 174. The market is already treating Mendoza as the more valuable fantasy asset.
Cousins may open the season. That does not mean fantasy managers should invest in a temporary arrangement.
Verdict: Hot
Overall Rank: 71
Position Rank: QB8
ADP: 90
Herbert is ranked eighth among quarterbacks and is available 19 spots later than his overall ranking.
There is no mystery here.
He is a top-eight quarterback being drafted at a modest discount. Those are the easy decisions.
Verdict: Hot
Overall Rank: 66
Position Rank: QB7
ADP: 93
Prescott may be the best pure value among the established quarterbacks.
Our board ranks him 66th overall and seventh at the position. His ADP is 93.
That 27-pick gap is large enough to build a strategy around. The market sees a later QB1. Our rankings see something better.
Verdict: Hot
Overall Rank: 87
Position Rank: QB12
ADP: 87
Dart is priced exactly where we rank him.
That means there is no discount, but there is also no evidence that the market has become carried away. QB12 places him on the edge of the weekly starter tier.
The price is fair. Sometimes fair is enough.
Verdict: Hot
Overall Rank: 64
Position Rank: QB6
ADP: 70
Hurts is another premium quarterback whose ranking and market price are closely aligned.
Our board has him sixth at the position and six picks ahead of his ADP. You are paying a serious price, but not an unreasonable one.
Verdict: Hot
Overall Rank: 61
Position Rank: QB5
ADP: 64
Daniels is ranked fifth among quarterbacks and is being selected almost exactly where our board places him.
The market understands the appeal. So do we.
There is no bargain, but elite players do not need to be bargains to be good picks.
Verdict: Hot
Overall Rank: 84
Position Rank: QB11
ADP: 86
Williams is another player whose internal ranking and market price are almost identical.
QB11 makes him a starting option without forcing managers to pay for an established top-five name.
That sounds like a reasonable place to take a chance on growth.
Verdict: Hot
Overall Rank: 104
Position Rank: QB16
ADP: 124
Goff is not ranked as a weekly fantasy star, but he is available 20 picks later than our overall grade.
That makes him a useful option in the wait-at-quarterback crowd.
He will not create much excitement. Fantasy standings remain stubbornly unimpressed by excitement.
Verdict: Cold
Overall Rank: 127
Position Rank: QB19
ADP: 130
Love is being drafted almost exactly where we rank him.
The issue is that QB19 does not provide enough separation to make him a preferred target. He is perfectly draftable as a second quarterback. He is less appealing as the lone plan.
Verdict: Cold
Overall Rank: 124
Position Rank: QB18
ADP: 136
Murray carries a 12-pick discount against our overall ranking, but QB18 keeps him outside the dependable starter group.
There is room for upside. There is also another quarterback in the room, with J.J. McCarthy sitting at QB36 in our rankings.
I would draft Murray as part of a two-quarterback plan. I would not draft him as an answer that requires no further questions.
Verdict: Cold
Overall Rank: 313
Position Rank: QB32
ADP: 252
Penix is being drafted 61 spots earlier than our overall ranking.
That is one of the larger negative gaps on the board.
Our rankings also place Tua Tagovailoa at QB31, one spot ahead of Penix. That does not look like a settled fantasy situation. It looks like a headache wearing a helmet.
Verdict: Hot
Overall Rank: 172
Position Rank: QB25
ADP: 190
No, this is not hometown charity.
Young is ranked 18 spots ahead of his ADP. That makes him a modest value even though he sits at QB25.
The proper use matters. He should not be drafted as a locked-in starter in a shallow league. He does make sense as a late second quarterback, a superflex option or a low-cost bet on continued development.
At pick 190, the price is doing most of the work.
Verdict: Cold
Overall Rank: 134
Position Rank: QB21
ADP: 137
Shough is being drafted almost exactly where we rank him.
QB21 is not enough to make him an obvious target, and the market is not offering a meaningful discount.
That is a cold designation based on price, not a declaration that he cannot play.
Verdict: Cold
Overall Rank: 121
Position Rank: QB17
ADP: 131
Mayfield is available ten picks later than our ranking, but recent injury news deserves attention.
Our latest player update says he played much of last season with sprains to both the MCL and PCL in his knee.
That does not make him undraftable. It does make QB17 feel less attractive when similarly priced quarterbacks carry cleaner health profiles.
Verdict: Cold
Overall Rank: 213
Position Rank: QB27
ADP: 204
Brissett is being drafted slightly earlier than our ranking and sits at QB27.
That is enough information for me.
He is a depth option in superflex leagues and an emergency streamer elsewhere.
Verdict: Hot
Overall Rank: 103
Position Rank: QB15
ADP: 109
Stafford is ranked six spots ahead of his ADP and lands at QB15.
That is not a dramatic bargain. It is a fair price for a veteran who remains close enough to the starter tier to help managers who wait.
Verdict: Hot
Overall Rank: 94
Position Rank: QB13
ADP: 113
Purdy is one of the stronger middle-round values on the board.
Our rankings place him 19 spots ahead of his ADP and one position outside the top 12 quarterbacks.
That gives managers a reasonable chance to wait and still land a player close to weekly starter status.
Verdict: Hot
Overall Rank: 145
Position Rank: QB23
ADP: 171
Darnold is not an exciting selection, but he is available 26 picks later than our overall ranking.
That is enough to make him useful as a second quarterback or superflex depth.
Hot does not always mean glamorous. Sometimes it means the price has become sensible.
The premium names remain the premium names.
Josh Allen, Lamar Jackson, Joe Burrow, Drake Maye, Jayden Daniels and Jalen Hurts all sit inside our top six quarterbacks. The market largely agrees, which means managers drafting them are paying for security rather than discovering value.
The more interesting names come later.
Dak Prescott is ranked 66th overall with an ADP of 93. Justin Herbert is ranked 71st with an ADP of 90. Trevor Lawrence is ranked 78th with an ADP of 97. Brock Purdy is ranked 94th with an ADP of 113.
Those are meaningful gaps.
For managers waiting even longer, Daniel Jones, Bryce Young, Sam Darnold and Geno Smith are all being drafted later than our internal overall ranking. None should be mistaken for a safe weekly starter, but each has a price that makes sense in the proper format.
The cold group contains good players, famous players and a few players who will almost certainly make this column look foolish for a week or two.
That is fantasy football.
The goal is not to predict every touchdown. The goal is to pay less than the player is worth.